Institutional investors have been loading up. I suspected this would happen a year ago, but they’ve only just woken up now. Ownership is currently 20% of the shares and has risen nicely despite the increased prices in February. It’s peaceful for a change to sit back and enjoy the ride.
It was a call aimed at growth investors. It explained Mind’s operations quite well and in a bit more depth. I’ll try to see if I can find it written somewhere, if nothing else.
Apparently, you can listen through that link if you provide some information, otherwise you’ll have to wait a week or two for them to become publicly available.
Now that I got to my computer, I’ll put the presentation here directly. It gives a pretty good picture of the company’s current state. MIND Company Overview - March 2025.pdf (1.8 MB)
MIND Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MIND) announced today that it will release financial results for its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and full year ended January 31, 2025 after the market closes on Tuesday, April 22, 2025.
Posting the earnings release time here, as the thread has become very quiet. I wonder if there are still owners after the strong decline? I haven’t dared to buy yet, but I’m following with interest how this saga continues.
I believe the course drop is unfounded. The valuation wasn’t great even at peak prices. There has been no company-specific reason for the price drop. Mind has traditionally followed oil price developments quite closely, as it was once almost purely dependent on offshore drilling. Nowadays, its products go into many other things. Based on its figures, Mind is cheaper in valuation than it has ever been, so I really see no reason to sell now. The stock also invariably rises a couple of weeks before the earnings release (April 22nd). The result will determine a lot. There have been no signs that Q4 would be a disappointment, quite the opposite. As for the sharp course drop, I managed to play a bit myself and sold 5000 shares at 6.50-9.00 and have now gradually bought back. Not to the original position, of course, as it was a bit too large.
The orange man causes uncertainty among investors, and that’s why the price is falling, I agree with this.
I doubt that oil companies’ exploration runs very precisely after the momentary price.
Tariffs, on the other hand, don’t really affect Mind’s operations. A relatively recent piece of information for me was that Mind’s markets are quite precisely distributed around the globe, and the significance of a single region, e.g., the USA, is quite small. Pricing power also seems to exist, as the competitive landscape is relatively concentrated.
I also see the stock price development as just noise now. The intention is to look at the Q4 results and, above all, to hear what management thinks about the future. I’m mainly wondering if this orange man’s antics are causing general uncertainty among customers. “Offshore oilfield services” is, of course, a very cyclical industry, but fortunately, it’s no longer everything. However, I don’t consider this $60 oil to be a very sustainable price level in the slightly longer term. “Cure for low prices is low prices,” if one can simplify it that way.
Good thoughts from both of you. The company is also quite a black box in the sense that even large orders are not necessarily disclosed between earnings reports. The order book and outlook are therefore central in the earnings report - and of course also that business development has continued favorably even after the previous earnings report. But as was written here earlier, the management was indeed confident at the time of the previous earnings report.
Here’s a small point of concern for myself, because despite all the positivity, I fear that Mind is by no means immune to market developments. The order backlog could therefore plummet, and this would be poison for the stock price. So a small guess is that results come out - stock price goes significantly up, and after the conference call, we could see a significant setback if the order backlog is not strong. On the other hand, there are indications of larger orders that have been discussed for some time, but the names haven’t been on paper. If something in writing has been secured before Trump’s antics, the order backlog could be record-high.
Warning:
The text contains a lot of speculation and conditionals
Rare earth metals are becoming a bone of contention in the trade war. The US needs China’s help in this, and China has already restricted their export. Trump has spoken in favor of offshore exploration, causing environmental activists to be up in arms. If things proceed despite the opposition, the exploration could provide more tailwind for Mindi and others operating in the sector.
Backlog $16.2 million. (Compare to $26.2 million a quarter ago and $38.4 million a year ago. However, after Q4, additional orders of $15.9 million.)
“Needs to scale into a larger company to maximize shareholder value” and here are the means: “We have identified organic growth opportunities that could help grow the Company. However, we also believe there are several other ways to achieve additional scale, including acquiring assets or businesses, combining with other organizations, or even an outright sale of the Company. All of these options are open to us, and we intend to investigate and analyze them. To assist us with this effort, we have retained Lucid Capital Markets LLC.”
Additionally, future pre-registration with the SEC was mentioned, so that shares could be issued quickly if needed. (However, no need for offerings at the moment.)
Tough quarterly report, can’t say otherwise. Revenue expectation (not mine) 12 million, actual 15 million. EPS forecast 0.18, actual 0.25. As for the order book, it’s irrelevant whether it’s 16 million or 32 million on the day of the report. There’s enough weekly or monthly fluctuation that the most important thing is that orders are coming in, and that’s clear from the report. Now the order book is closer to 32 million. Management is willing to sell, it can’t be expressed much more directly than that. It will be interesting to see how the market views the report in the current global situation. Post-market showed +23% with pretty good volume. Refills around 4.50-5.50 no longer cause anxiety.
Full year revenue 47 million and profit 5 million. 2024 profit was 0.274 million. 2025 EBITDA 8 million. From this, one can ponder whether 45 million is the correct market value. P/S is pretty much 1, P/E 8, and the industry is on a significant upswing. Kraken as a comparison, figures in CAD. Revenue 70 million, profit 5.55 million, and market value 570 million. Kraken, with a worse margin and similar profit, has a market value almost 10x.
I wrote this on another forum, so I’m putting it here too. Below are what I consider the most essential points:
95% of revenue comes from outside the USA. Direct impacts of the trade war are minimal.
40% of revenue comes from spare parts and support.
Current Q4 was record-breaking; Q1 will not reach that level. A profitable quarter is coming, but due to order phasing, it won’t be the same as Q4.
The full year 2026, i.e., the current year for MIND, will be better than 2025; growth will not be as significant as in 2024-2025.
Margins are dependent on turnover, but they have found areas for improvement so that this dependence will not be as strong in the future.
The defense industry has not surprisingly played a large part in turnover, and they are developing sales in that direction.
Some customers are expanding into mineral exploration, and interest in that area is noticeable.
Pending orders are as large as, if not larger than, the order book of 32 million.
MIND needs to grow larger, and that is clearly management’s goal. There are options to achieve this goal, and clearly, selling the entire company is one of them.
Management is very confident about the future.
My own thoughts: Rob Capps is 72 years old. He wants to wrap this up quickly.
A great example of using AI to write a company analysis. The AI has clearly gotten confused because MIND’s accounting does not follow the calendar year, resulting in an article where, to put it mildly, everything is completely messed up.
The best part, of course, is that based on the article, a bunch of ‘experts’ have appeared to comment with lofty ideas based on the article.
It’s quiet in the thread, so let’s bring up the latest institutional ownership figures again.
Ownership is 35%; in February, ownership was 20%.
UBS has been the biggest buyer, having acquired 700,000 shares in May. Verneri mentioned in the ‘Stock Market Direction’ thread that professionals have left the markets in the US and their return is awaited. Is it possible that they are starting with these smaller companies, many of which have seen their valuations stagnate, while the larger ones are already quite tightly valued?
Kraken released its quarterly report. With 16M CAD in revenue, 200k in profit. As a reminder, the company’s market cap is 630M CAD. Okay, sexy defense industry and so on. The price tag, however, was high even before the war, so it doesn’t explain the high valuation. Analysts like this a lot for some reason, and it has a buy recommendation and a target price of 3.20 instead of the current 2.35. Maybe I don’t understand anything, but it feels shockingly expensive compared to MIND.
MIND Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MIND) announced today that it will release financial results for its fiscal 2026 first quarter ended April 30, 2025 after the market closes on Tuesday, June 10, 2025.
