Mercado Libre ($MELI) - South America's Alibaba

A slightly updated view, most importantly the “fair price” :cowboy_hat_face: 2705$ —> 2835$.

https://x.com/ZeevyInvesting/status/1870829752098971852

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![image|690x423](upload://8wEB1mcItmkcDUAN3pUf3TOlwYm.

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The tweet below highlights how MercadoLibre benefits from strong network effects, advanced logistics, and a growing advertising platform, which support its position as a market leader. The recovery of the Argentine economy can also serve as a significant growth catalyst, strengthening the company’s long-term prospects.

https://x.com/mvcinvesting/status/1873114710356443567

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The tweet below is quite illustrative of what MELI is up to. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/realroseceline/status/1874174842255401278
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https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/ostin-myin-juuri-asken-osa-7/52688/3277?u=sijoittaja-alokas

Thanks, this has started to interest me too! :slight_smile:

MELI is one of the leading companies in Latin America, whose business model covers e-commerce, financial services, and logistics, among other things. This comprehensive ecosystem offers merchants and consumers an easy way to handle trading, payments, and deliveries.

Its market position is very strong, as it possesses economic and technological specificities “in its region,” which makes it challenging for competitors to enter the market. Additionally, MELI’s continuous expansion into new markets and the rapid growth of fintech services potentially increase its long-term potential. Thanks to its economic scale, the company can naturally optimize its costs and improve its profitability, which supports sustainable growth. The company is good at imitating others and developing on top of that.

The economic situation in the region creates challenges, but the company’s adaptability and innovative style make it quite interesting.

On the other hand, I can’t independently crunch the numbers for this company either, so I can’t assess what it should really be worth. :slight_smile:

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Here are potentially some nice things again, thinking about MELI. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/TheShortBear/status/1875223529249239146
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Here’s a tweet about a company whose name brings a drink to mind. :slight_smile:

The tweet highlights how MELI interests investors due to its strong growth and solid financial foundation. The company’s revenue has grown significantly since 2018, with an average growth rate of 58.6 percent, and free cash flow has increased by an impressive 203.3% annually. The company’s return on invested capital has improved considerably, reaching 20.1 percent in the last 12 months (LTM) and return on equity of 42.6 percent.

The company also has a strong balance sheet with $6.67 billion in cash and $3.04 billion in long-term debt. Gross margin (52.5%) and operating margin (11.4%) have also improved.

The tweet also states how the company’s attractiveness is further enhanced by its unique position in the rapidly growing Latin American markets and strong network effects.

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The tweet thread states, among other things, how the e-commerce market in Latin America has enormous growth potential, as 34 percent of the region’s population does not yet use e-commerce. :slight_smile:

The market value is expected to rise to 1 trillion dollars by 2030, and MercadoLibre controls about 30 percent of the market, with its share constantly growing.

The company is investing heavily in logistics, which will improve profitability in the long run. MercadoPago, in turn, benefits from dominating a region where its services are in high demand and where there is still much potential.

The tweet also states that MercadoLibre has significant growth potential, even a 10-fold increase from its current value.

https://x.com/MMMTwealth/status/1877362478876701012
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Rest of the tweet thread

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This tweet thread showcases the company’s strong performance, but will it continue to be so? MELI’s industry is not the most stable possible. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/Quartr_App/status/1878527952482079121
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Morgan Stanley expects Mercado Libre to significantly increase its revenue and profitability this year and next year, and MS also expects the company’s financial situation to improve considerably. Even though the valuation level is lower than before “investment expansions,” Morgan is positive about MELI. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/TheShortBear/status/1879376134581743828
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Well, here it is. :slight_smile:

The company’s revenue and financial income grew significantly compared to the previous year. Operating profit was strong, and net profit also increased considerably. The volume of payment options grew significantly, and growth was also strong even when considering exchange rate changes.

https://x.com/EsthaarLabs/status/1892681953331056690
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Company’s Official Material Q4/2024

I highlighted a few things from that:

The number of unique buyers (one customer counted only once) grew by 24 percent compared to the previous year.

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The number of products sold per customer has grown:

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MAU’s share has grown:

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Cash Flow :slight_smile:

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Looks good :slight_smile:

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Letter to Shareholders

Picked from this:

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Finally, here’s a summary. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/CmgVenture/status/1892688089019027658

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Thanks to Alokas for keeping the thread alive. This landed in the portfolio at the beginning of the year as a new opening, and would likely have gone under the radar without this thread. Performance based on the report is very strong, and there are ingredients for future success. Although the valuation is relatively high, this will remain in the portfolio at least until the growth story begins to crack.

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Thanks! :slight_smile: My pleasure. :slight_smile:


Here’s a small comparison with its dear competitor

https://x.com/finchat_io/status/1892951419512324474
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There’s something in this tweet that many might have missed. :slight_smile:

:point_down:

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The topic of this tweet is probably partly familiar or at least has been on many people’s minds, but MeLi will likely try in many big countries, and if things start to grow and scale there, oh my. :upside_down_face:

https://x.com/BourbonCap/status/1893437570756816972

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While I admire my portfolio melting on this beautiful spring Friday, one can also use the time to read news about the company. :slight_smile:

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MERCADOLIBRE-INC-58469/news/MercadoLibre-to-Invest-3-4-Billion-in-Mexico-in-2025-49272864/

(MT Newswires) – MercadoLibre (MELI) plans to invest $3.4 billion in Mexico in 2025, up 38% from 2024, Reuters reported Friday, citing a company executive.
The spending will primarily support existing operations, the executive said speaking at Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s daily morning press conference, according to the report.
The company also plans to create more 10,000 new jobs in Mexico in sectors including logistics, financial technology and administration, the report said.

Mexico is Meli’s second-largest market.

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Here is Investing visuals’ comparison of Amazon and Mercado Libre. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/ZeevyInvesting/status/1898766730123763847

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Small highlights from MeList in the form of a tweet. :slight_smile:

The company is currently valued at 14 times its free cash flow, although the figure is inflated by large provisions and depreciations. The EBIT margin is 12.6 percent, return on equity is 50 percent, and the company operates with negative working capital.

:point_down:

https://x.com/FundasyInvestor/status/1899602741158154364

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Mercado Libre reported that Mexico’s e-commerce grew significantly in 2024.

The company leads the market with the largest number of buyers, the highest purchase frequency, and… something… conversion rate?

https://x.com/MaxTheComrade/status/1900168509058908392

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One of the best Meli summaries I’ve read. Highly recommended!

The author highlights the biggest drivers for value appreciation, which are e-commerce being in its “infancy” in Latin American countries, and the population’s quite moderate bank card ownership (still). The latter also benefits companies like NU.

As can be seen from the image, Lat.Am. e-commerce penetration is just beginning, and significantly behind the already more developed United States and China. However, growth is expected.

According to PMCI market research , Latin America’s e-commerce market volumes will surpass $1 trillion by 2027 , doubling from $507 billion in 2023 .

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Of the Latin American population over 15 years old, only 28% have a credit card. Fortunately, Mercado Pago has been launched for this problem, making Meli a true one-stop-shop.
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Let’s not forget @Ituhippinen’s MeLi.

This summary states and shows how the company is starting to get rid of temporary margin pressures (logistics and payment business) and has plenty of different ways to improve profitability.

The advertising business is progressing promisingly, and earnings forecasts have just turned upwards. The valuation (29x EBIT) reflects growth, not hype, right?

https://x.com/StockMarketNerd/status/1907097990759596232
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