Plenty of ammunition left.
27 Likes
Model Portfolio: Portfolio Packed for Summer - YouTube
The latest portfolio review. 13% underperformance against the index during the beginning of the year. To maximize the misery, the results were presented on a hangover day 
33 Likes
It is said that beating the index over time is difficult (impossible for most investors/analysts), but conversely, itâs just as difficult to lose to the index over time, so weâll probably soon be making excess returns again once this regression to the mean period has been struggled through.
1 Like
Itâs not easy to beat the indices, even for professionals.
Comparison of model portfolio returns to ETFs available on Nordnet.
Nordnet offers 448 equity accumulation ETFs with a 5-year return history.
The Inderes model portfolio ranks 416/449 in this comparison, placing it among the worst 10%. In addition, a private investor would have had to pay numerous taxes, at least on dividends, during this period.
39 Likes
It hasnât been easy in the last five years, apparently, even against other professionals. 
Here are all Nordnetâs funds investing in Finland. Inderes would therefore rank last.
The ten-year return, calculated from Nordnetâs curve, would appear to be 161.8%, meaning itâs in the top spot, respectively.
33 Likes
Letâs share Pietari Laurilaâs eToro portfolio here. Itâs probably one of Finlandâs most followed âmodel portfoliosâ.
He states that long-term returns have been around 20% CAGR. He has an interesting strategy based on three different analyses with the following weightings: 50% on macro, 30% on fundamental, and 20% on technical analysis.
European banks seem to be heavily weighted.
Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital Portfolio â eToro
Recent SijoituskÀsti interview
#223 Higher returns than Warren Buffett â becoming a billionaire by investing? ft. Pietari Laurila - YouTube
24 Likes
Related to this, what kind of uproar would it cause if the Model Portfolio started buying European banks? I believe that at least @Pohjolan_Eka would have something to say if the next holdings in the model portfolio were Nordea and Danske. 
P.S. That positive mention by @Atte_Riikola in the model portfolio video aged well, about Remedy clearly outperforming the index. Hopefully, it will recover soon and we didnât jinx it too much.
14 Likes
Laurila emphasized in that interview that different strategies work at different times and an investor must be flexible and try to spot what works in each market. The fact that 50% of the analysis is macro analysis tells quite a lot about his investment philosophy.
The interview mentions that the average position holding period would be only 2-3 months, so itâs quite close to swing trading. However, the portfolio also contains positions held for longer, and for example, Nordea seems to have been in the portfolio for almost a year.
3 Likes
Sijoittaja.fiâs model portfolio seems to have performed well. Too bad itâs behind a paywall, so I canât examine it more closely.
Currently, the three largest stocks by weight in Suomi Fundamentti are: Citycon, TietoEVRY, and Atria. The portfolio contains a total of 25 stocks.
Model Portfolios June â Model Portfolios Start the Summer Season Moderately
Their other model portfolio, which follows the Finnish quality strategy, not so much.
15 Likes
This is the content of the Finland fundamental portfolio
15 Likes
One idea for the model portfolio rules. I donât recall offhand who might have said this, but I have personally heard the guideline several times to sell an investment if itâs down by more than 20%. Such a so-called âinvestment wisdomâ-based backdoor for a sell order, even against an active recommendation, would allow the model portfolio team a new opportunity to reassess the investmentâs risk level and fundamentals.
However, even buy recommendations vary more or less in their risk level across different companies. If a buy recommendation for a company like Sampo were to change to a buy recommendation with a risk level similar to Modulight, I believe it would be appropriate to re-examine the investment due to its changed risk profile.
Refining this idea, it would be natural to incorporate into the model portfolio rules an opportunity to reassess the risk level, as at -20%, the âtuition feesâ would already have been paid.
2 Likes
A 20% stop loss could work as a loss limiter in Bitcoin or meme coins, where the true value is impossible to determine. However, a proper value investor, such as Kim Lindström, who has perhaps earned the most from stocks in Finland, practices the so-called average down principle, meaning more is bought when itâs cheap. In recent years, he has probably bought the most of Nokian Tyres and Tietoevry. He doesnât invest in very small companies, also due to his 10 million+ portfolio. https://www.salkunrakentaja.fi/2022/10/konkarisijoittaja-kim-lindstrom-kln-kolumnissa-osakemarkkinat-hinnoittelevat-synkkaa-tulevaisuutta-average-down-strategia-toimii/
1 Like
Average down works well in situations where the stock price falls while the companyâs value remains the same. Of course, both parameters can also change in such a way that the buy case still holds. For example, the stock price has fallen by 10 percent during the period and the companyâs value by 15 percent, but the discrepancy between price and value is still so large that it is worth continuing to buy.
The idea I described earlier was to give an option to sell the stock if, based on a re-evaluation, changes have occurred in the companyâs fundamentals. If -20% appears on the board, for example, after a year of holding, the price drop may also well indicate some changes that have occurred in the company, such as an increased risk profile of the investment. If the team believes the case is unchanged and the price is merely falling, the model portfolio will certainly be buying more shares for the portfolio. The base scenario is therefore certainly always an average down in line with recommendations. This selling opportunity would be an âexit strategyâ in a situation where, for example, there are no longer grounds for averaging down due to portfolio management reasons, and the position would be exited despite, for example, an âaddâ recommendation.
2 Likes
The thread was started 7 years ago, where the starter boasts of following a model portfolio with good returns.
If I looked correctly, then in 8-year and 5-year returns, they have now lost to the Helsinki index. In 10-year returns, however, they have performed better. The thread starter said they started following 10 years ago. Good for them if they didnât invest more money in the stock market after that 
3 Likes
Timing is difficult
51 Likes
Since the beginning of 2020, Iâve been dabbling with a combination of different model portfolios and analysis firm recommendations on my Investment Savings Account (OST). Iâve lost quite badly to the index. And Iâve actually incurred losses in euros, even though 2020 and 2021 went really well. Since 2022, itâs been continuous underperformance. Luckily, this activity has only represented about a quarter of my total portfolio.
Similar activity by a certain investment blogger had generated tremendous excess returns for several years (at least 5 years, but I donât remember exactly) in the 2010s, which is why I got excited to try it when the OST became available.
From this, Iâve now concluded that itâs dangerous to start experimenting with something that has worked wonderfully in the previous 5-10 years. I think the same applies to funds, market areas, and asset classes. I consider it at least dangerous to jump into Bitcoin, US stocks, or gold now. Of course, Iâm not claiming that none of these could be a good investment for the next 10 years as well.
25 Likes
The summer has been so hot that even the model portfolioâs 5-year return curve is glowing red.
The severe thrashing compared to the benchmark index has been exceptionally tough during the last year, with the benchmark index at +16.29% and the model portfolio at -15.36% 
Regarding YTD, we are only 21% behind, but a final push should already slowly begin.
62 Likes
Excuse my stupid question, but where is that graph above from?
1 Like
You can follow Inderesâ model portfolio on Nordnet.
1 Like
Out with the old.
The cash position is starting to be quite large. RE also has a rather large 12.7% cash position at the moment. The professionals are apparently waiting for an autumn dip. Lepikkö also waited like this in the latest TC.
20 Likes