Loihde - a service company specializing in comprehensive security and IT services

Loihde_POST

Strong growth was achieved, but partly it seemed to come from lower-margin services/products, as growth did not scale to profitability. The profitability of the seasonally weaker Q1 is also always the most difficult to predict. Overall, the prerequisites for continued profit improvement this year should be in place, provided that the development of IT consulting also stabilizes relative to last year, supported by good development in security businesses, implemented efficiency measures, and improving billing rates in IT consulting.

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CEO Samu Konttinen was interviewed by Frans after Q1. :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:15 Q1 summary
02:16 Growth drivers
05:08 Profitability development
07:25 Timing of the effects of change negotiations
08:44 Sales bonus model payment timing
10:38 The importance of IT expertise and technology is growing
13:21 The role of own share repurchases in capital allocation
15:02 Market outlook
19:25 Price competition has intensified

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Antti and Frans have prepared a new company report on Loihde, after the Q1 report.

Loihde’s Q1 growth was stronger than expected, but profitability fell short of forecasts partly due to one-off reasons. The implemented efficiency measures and stabilizing IT consulting support the earnings growth outlook, but we believe the return expectation has weakened after recent customs news. The direct impact of customs duties on the company is very limited, but the profitability improvement we expect in the coming years relies partly on a generally improving economic situation, and Loihde is priced at a clear premium compared to its peers. An exceptionally high dividend forecast (12%) supports the stock in the short term, but we see the company as being at a fairly reasonable level now. We lower our target price to 11.7 euros (previously 12.0 €) driven by forecast changes and our recommendation to reduce (previously add).

Quoted from the report:

In the long term, we see Loihde’s businesses having good structural growth drivers due to digital transformation trends, and the core business is, in our opinion, quite stable and predictable. The DCF model (terminal EBIT-%: 4.4% and COE: 10.3%) gives a value of 11.2 € and 12.9 € without lease liabilities in net debt, in light of which there is still some upside potential in the stock. We raised the OPO’s required rate of return from 10.0 → 10.3% to compensate for increased forecast risks. Our sum-of-the-parts calculation based on the company’s business areas gives a value of 12.7 €/share. The different valuation methods are described in more detail on the next page and in the comprehensive report.

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The decisions of the Annual General Meeting were published:

This was certainly the most interesting point of the meeting.

Dividend Payment

The Annual General Meeting decided to pay a dividend of 0.75 euros per share for the financial year ended December 31, 2024. The dividend will be paid to shareholders who are registered in the company’s shareholder register maintained by Euroclear Finland Oy on the dividend record date of May 12, 2025. The dividend will be paid on May 19, 2025.

In addition, the Annual General Meeting authorized the Board of Directors to decide on an additional dividend distribution in one or more installments, such that the total amount of the additional dividend to be distributed is a maximum of 0.75 euros per share. The authorization is valid until December 31, 2025. The company will publish any decisions by the Board of Directors regarding the additional dividend distribution and will confirm the record and payment dates for the additional dividend at the same time.

→ So, the Annual General Meeting authorized the Board of Directors to decide on an additional dividend of 0.75 euros. The authorization is valid until the end of this year. Our forecasts include the assumption that the Board of Directors will fully utilize this authorization this year.

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21.5.2025

The City of Turku has chosen Loihde as its service provider for data communication services to comprehensively manage the city’s data communication and data communication security.

IT and security expert Loihde coordinates the city’s ICT services’ multi-vendor environment and acts as a single point of contact for both other ICT service providers and the client. In its SIAM (Service Integration and Management) role, i.e., as a service integrator, Loihde is responsible for the overall solution in terms of both maintenance and development. Loihde also provides the City of Turku with its data communication hub for its offices and internet connections, SD-WAN service, LAN and WLAN services, and firewall service.

The agreement has been concluded for 5 years, and its total value is estimated at 9.5 million euros.

“We are pleased with the selection of Loihde as our partner and are already eagerly looking forward to the start of our cooperation. We expect Loihde to bring its expertise to the development of the City of Turku’s data communication, which will promote the development of the entire City of Turku,” says Joni Ilmanen, IT Director of the City of Turku.

“I am immensely proud of our team – winning an important tender is thanks to their extensive technical expertise and understanding of the customer’s needs. At the same time, I want to thank the customer for their trust; this is the beginning of a meaningful collaboration that will move both parties forward,” says Jarno Mäki, Director of Cybersecurity, Cloud and Connectivity business at Loihde.

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A very good agreement. The agreement is, in my opinion, a good indication of Loihtee’s competitiveness and how the combination of the company’s security and IT expertise can create value for the customer.

I also wrote a small comment about the agreement.

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Here are Frans’s and Antti’s preview comments as Loihde publishes its Q2 report on Friday.

We expect revenue to have grown slightly, supported by security businesses. We expect profitability to have improved from last year, driven by efficiency measures and the growth of high-margin services. Overall, we expect the good momentum in the Cybersecurity, Cloud and Connectivity, and Security Solutions areas to have continued, while in the Data, Digital & AI area, we expect the decline in revenue to have almost stabilized, similar to Q1.

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Here are Frans’s and Antti’s quick comments on the morning’s results. :slight_smile:

Loihde published a slightly weaker Q2 report than our expectations this morning. Revenue and profitability were approximately at the previous year’s level and slightly below our expectations. Security solutions continued good development, but Cybersecurity, cloud, and networks fell slightly short of our expectations. Positively, the development of IT consulting’s Data, Digital & AI area began to stabilize, even though the market situation remains very difficult, and strategically important continuous services continued good development. The company is confident in achieving its guidance, even though the earnings accumulation is slightly behind last year. The latter half of the year is supported by the growth of continuous services, efficiency measures, a good order book, and the stabilizing development of IT consulting revenue. The company’s Q2 webcast can be followed here.

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Frans interviewed CEO Samu Konttinen. :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:15 Development in the first half of the year
03:36 Customer interest in continuous services
06:09 Focusing the offering on core services
07:58 Security solutions market is growing
10:16 Development of IT consulting
12:00 Profitability
14:15 Outlook for the rest of the year

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Frans and Antti have been busy on Sunday evening, completing Loihtee’s company report. :slight_smile:

Loihtee’s Q2 fell slightly short of our expectations in terms of revenue and profitability, but in the big picture, the report was quite expected. Important continuous services continued good growth, and we see clear drivers for the full-year earnings growth outlined in the guidance. The market situation in the IT services market is still foggy, but we believe the security sector receives clear support from the current uncertain geopolitical situation and increased threats. Loihtee’s strong position in comprehensive security, earnings growth potential in a better market, and a decreased share price make the return expectation attractive again in our opinion.

Quoted from the report:

Personnel efficiency on the rise

Loihtee’s revenue per person (page 6) has been in clear growth for some time now. Over the past two years, revenue per person has increased by 13%, while personnel costs per person have grown by 2%. We believe the good development is due to the growth of more scalable continuous services and the company’s efforts to streamline fixed personnel costs relative to revenue. Additionally, a significant portion of the revenue from the well-growing Security Solutions and Cyber Security, Cloud & Networks areas comes from relatively low-margin equipment sales, which improves the ratio. However, we estimate that mostly positive factors are at play. This development strengthens the prerequisites for profitability improvement in the coming years.

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CEO Samu Konttinen was talking about his company as an investment. :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Loihde as an investment
14:15 Q&A

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Today I was able to release Loihde’s comprehensive report, which is freely available. It turned out to be quite a hefty piece, measuring 76 pages :smiley: Of course, a very large part of the pages covers the IT services and security markets, but the company was also discussed in depth. At least there’s something for AI to read :smiley:

I believe the company is now in an interesting situation, as its offering of total security (physical security, cybersecurity, and IT networks) genuinely seems unique compared to competitors, and I have no doubt that these three areas will become more and more intertwined in the future. This has already happened, due to devices like camera surveillance being connected to the network. In recent years, the company has performed well in precisely these areas, especially considering Finland’s weak economic development and the slump in new construction. According to my own research, the company has gained market share in recent years, particularly in the Security Solutions business area. In the security business, strategically important continuous services also play a big role, and they now account for just under 30% of the entire group’s revenue. My wish for the company would be that it starts reporting the profitability of its business areas at the EBITDA and EBITA levels. This would bring much more transparency to the company and also significantly support, for example, sum-of-the-parts valuation.

On the flip side, the development of the IT services business has been weak, but even there, development has stabilized this year and has been slightly better than the sector average. It’s good to note that at Loihde, service areas often associated with IT services, cybersecurity and cloud, are under a separate Cybersecurity, Cloud, and Networks business area, which has developed well.

Another clear uncertainty factor is profitability and cash flows, which have been subdued in recent years, although now showing a slightly improving trend. In the coming years, realizing the profitability potential is absolutely central. This is especially emphasized because there is quite a large difference between operating profit and EBITA (~5%), and the current EBITA-% and net profit-% are low, meaning even a relatively small improvement in operating profit will leverage into EBITA and net profit. For this reason, and combined with the business’s good momentum and pleasant growth outlook, I find the valuation attractive at current levels, even if this year’s results don’t yet provide much support.

It’s also good to note that the target price takes into account a possible additional dividend of 0.75 euros, which is not certain.

If you have any questions/feedback about the company/report, now is the opportune time for them! Tomorrow we will film a video about the company/report.

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Hi!

Loihde is a bit of a question mark regarding growth as a whole, because the current Loihde (group) has been built over the years through acquisitions.

How well can the group level invest in growth in individual business operations if a really good growth prospect is found? This relates to those acquisitions, meaning if the management of the acquired company remains within Loihde, how well do the goals of the former management and Loihde align in terms of growth rate and scale?

To what extent are Loihde’s security services standardized and available “off the shelf” when a customer requests a quote or even delivery? Can I get an example of an order-delivery-implementation schedule and process?

Does Loihde’s selection include services for housing companies, if, for example, a housing cooperative wants a so-called comprehensive digital security service and surveillance?

Could I get a very clear example of how Loihde’s IT services can support physical security solutions, and is there an “off-the-shelf” product solution or at least a somewhat repeatable solution model, so that there would be more cost-effectiveness than in thorough customizations for each customer case?

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Now also available in video form, Franco’s thoughts on Loihde’s potential and improving profitability. :grinning_face:

“Loihde, focusing on comprehensive security and IT services, has positioned itself in interesting growth markets with its unique offering. In our opinion, the success of the investment story is primarily driven by realizing clear profitability potential and continuing organic growth.”

Topics:
00:00 Start
00:34 What does Loihde do?
02:33 Synergy potential in cross-selling
04:25 Profitability has been subdued
07:38 Adjustments and acquisitions
09:13 Investor returns in recent years have come from dividends
11:11 Ambitious goals
16:49 Competitive landscape
18:53 Consolidation of the physical security market
20:33 Valuation and return drivers

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Loihde is a bit of a question mark regarding overall growth, as the current Loihde (group) has been built over the years through acquisitions.

How well can the group level invest in growth in individual business areas if a really good growth prospect is found? This relates to acquisitions; if the management of an acquired company remains within Loihde, how well do the former management’s and Loihde’s goals align regarding growth rate and scale?

I believe that the prerequisites for investing in new prospects are fundamentally quite good. Historically, the group has seemed somewhat slow-moving, but in my opinion, the organizational streamlining measures taken in recent years have also created better conditions for faster actions, and this has also been one of the goals of these measures. For example, in the Security Business, there could now be such opportunities, and recently, for instance, the company has been active in communicating about drone defense systems, which could bring new growth opportunities. It might not happen, but this demonstrates that Loihde is alert to new possibilities, and in this respect, I believe the company is a pioneer in physical security.

It is almost impossible to assess the conflict of interest you describe from outside the company, but I do not currently see this as a major risk. Many of the current key personnel have joined the company through acquisitions. Several of these individuals who came to the company through acquisitions also have significant Loihde holdings. As an example of recent acquisitions, Jarno Mäki (who joined with the Onrego acquisition), who is responsible for the Cybersecurity, Cloud, and Connections business, seems like a very growth-oriented leader and precisely the kind of profile I believe Loihde needs.

To what extent are Loihde’s security services standardized and available “off the shelf” when a customer requests a quote or even delivery? Could you provide an example of an order-delivery-implementation timeline and process?

My understanding is that security services are largely very standardized in many respects, but this also always depends on the customer and their size. Standardization comes from the fact that the equipment is largely always the same. In the security business, the resale of equipment plays a very significant role in revenue. For example, locking a certain office building would certainly be a very largely standard process in many respects, but it also always requires planning together with the customer.

However, the added value brought by Loihde comes more to the fore precisely in these non-standard projects. If we take the example of Keravan Energia, where the customer has Loihde’s services including NOC 24/7, corporate networks, CSOC 24/7, critical industrial environment monitoring, camera surveillance, and time tracking. In such a customer relationship, Loihde can provide completely different added value with its comprehensive security offering. Here, the consulting work and planning itself play a significant role, as the customer’s security needs must be thoroughly investigated. In addition, several continuous services are included, which Loihde typically produces with its existing continuous services infrastructure (e.g., Cybersecurity Monitoring Center CSOC).

I cannot provide an exact timeline and process schedule. Would someone from within the company like to comment on this in more detail if they are following the discussion? I can also get back to this later.

Does Loihde’s selection include services for housing companies, if, for example, a housing cooperative wants a comprehensive digital security service and surveillance?

These services are indeed available in Loihde’s selection, but to my understanding, the company has not made such a comprehensive security offering specifically for housing cooperatives. Often, housing cooperatives probably balk at the price, but it would certainly be possible. Among managed services for housing companies, Key Management Service is, to my understanding, a key service. It is also good to note that Loihde does not offer guard services; for example, in the management of camera surveillance systems, Loihde itself monitors the surveillance camera network, and partners like Securitas monitor the premises themselves.

Could you explain in very simple terms, with an example, how Loihde’s IT services can support physical security solutions, and is there an “off-the-shelf” product solution or at least a somewhat repeatable solution model that would offer more cost-effectiveness than thorough customizations for each customer case?

In Data, Digital & AI services, it is practically very largely about customized services. On the data side, data platforms also play a key role (e.g., Microsoft or SAS), which brings productization to the business. In cloud services, which are part of the Cybersecurity, Cloud & Networks business area, support for security services is clearer, as modern security systems that are connected to the network are typically built in a cloud environment today. However, it is good to note that Loihde’s IT service business is based largely on customized solutions, meaning this is where the company can generate the most value. In addition, a significant part of the IT service business involves providing experts/teams as part of customers’ IT development teams. All in all, one could say that the very clear support and joint offering of IT services for physical security services remain quite small. The most significant synergy, in my estimation, comes from the fact that customers are often the same. As security systems become digitalized, the purchasing personnel for both these services in customer organizations will also communicate more and more with each other. However, IT services and physical security services are in many respects very different businesses, and I believe that Data, Digital & AI could be very well separated at the right price, and I do not see it as an impossible idea. Perhaps now is not the most opportune time to sell, as valuations are so low. Especially in the data & AI business, there should also be good growth prospects.

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Strategic business acquisition.

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Frans has written a pre-commentary as Loihde publishes its Q3 report on Wednesday :slight_smile:

We expect revenue to have continued growing slightly, driven by security businesses and especially important recurring services. We expect earnings growth to have continued, driven by efficiency measures, improved billing rates, and the growth of high-margin services. The company guides for an improvement in adjusted EBITDA from the previous year. In H1, the company was slightly behind last year’s earnings accumulation, which requires earnings growth for the rest of the year. We estimate that the company has good prerequisites to continue improving profitability with the support of the aforementioned drivers, although we believe there is some uncertainty regarding the reliability of the guidance.

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I also wrote a small comment about the deal. The deal is very much in line with the strategy and likely to provide highly scalable growth, as only customer accounts are transferred in the transaction. Hopefully, we will get some more information about the deal tomorrow in connection with the earnings release.

Loihde announced that it is acquiring Lounea Yritysratkaisut Oy’s camera surveillance business, which will be transferred to the company on January 1, 2026. The deal includes video surveillance and camera surveillance services offered by Lounea, which will be transferred to Loihde for production during the latter part of the year. No personnel will be transferred with the deal. The financial size of the deal was not disclosed, but we estimate it to be very small in Loihde’s scale, and it will not have a material impact on revenue or earnings forecasts for the coming years. However, we see very strong synergies with Loihde’s business in this deal.

Despite its small size, the acquisition is also strategically well aligned with Loihde’s goals to increase the share of continuous services and strengthen its position in key security technology service areas for the company. According to our assessment, the deal will grow the camera surveillance business scalably, as only customer accounts are transferred in the transaction, and Loihde is likely to be able to provide these continuous services more efficiently than Lounea due to its significantly larger scale. The demand for camera surveillance solutions as a service has grown in recent years, as customers want to transfer maintenance and data security responsibility to the provider. In our view, Loihde has been one of the winners in this transformation.

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Fransilta and Antilta quick comments on Loihde’s Q3 results. :slight_smile:

Loihde’s Q3 report fell slightly short of our expectations. Revenue continued to grow moderately, and adjusted EBITDA was approximately at last year’s level. The company’s earnings guidance requires a strong performance in the remainder of the year, but intensified price competition, delays in the start of large projects, and customers’ slow decision-making due to the general uncertain economic situation create clear uncertainty for the end of the year. In the big picture, however, the company’s development has been on a good trend through a difficult cycle. The company’s Q3 webcast can be followed here.

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Fransin’s exam featured Loihteen CEO Samu Konttinen :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:12 Q3 Highlights
00:46 Revenue Development
03:36 Share of Network Device Resale
05:22 Profitability and Price Competition
06:36 Public Sector Projects
08:48 Acquisition of Lounea’s Camera Surveillance Business
09:54 Drivers Behind the Guidance
12:30 Leveraging Growth Opportunities

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