Here are Ate’s pre-earnings comments ahead of Lemonsoft’s Q2 results next Friday
We expect the company’s revenue to have grown moderately and profitability to have shown a clear upward step change from the weak comparison period. Lemonsoft lowered its outlook for the current year slightly in July, and a technical adjustment was subsequently made to the guidance following the divestment of Finvoicer. Therefore, there should be no major surprises in the report regarding the outlook, but we will delve deeper into the points raised in connection with the profit warning (especially customer churn). At the same time, we are interested in the latest comments on the brightening prospects for new sales in the company’s core sectors (manufacturing and wholesale), which the company already highlighted when it lowered its guidance.
Organic growth -2.1%. It would be nice to know which segments the decline is coming from. Lemonsoft doesn’t seem to report earnings performance by segment, does it? At least I haven’t come across it.
Here is Ate’s company report on Lemonsoft following the Q2 results
We reiterate Lemonsoft’s buy recommendation and target price of EUR 6.0. The company’s revenue in Q2 grew in line with our expectations, but the improvement in earnings compared to the reference period fell slightly short of our expectations due to a higher cost structure. In light of Lemonsoft’s comments on the outlook, the market situation in the company’s core industries is clearly picking up. This should begin to support sales performance even more strongly in H2, and in our estimate, reflect properly on the revenue and earnings lines during 2027. Reflecting on this, the stock’s valuation (2027e EV/EBIT 8x) is, in our opinion, very attractive.
There is heavy speculation about a possible higher buyout offer from Rite Ventures.
"The price of the new offer also includes only a moderate premium, and the market does not yet believe the offer will go through. The over 25 percent ownership stake controlled by the company’s former CEO, Kari Joki-Hollanti, forms a strong blocking minority. A 60 percent ownership already gives the private equity investor full control at the general meeting, but a 90 percent ownership stake is required for a mandatory redemption obligation and delisting.
Be that as it may, Rite Ventures’ new purchases signal that interest in the company remains strong. Reaching an agreement will require a higher offer, which may lie ahead in the near future."
It will certainly be interesting to see what happens to Lemonsoft over the next year or so, for instance. Will there be a real takeover bid? After all, the company has been put into a somewhat more presentable shape as non-core operations have been trimmed, staff reduced, and profitability increased. More substantial organic growth is still awaited, but there is earnings leverage here once the top line gets a boost.
Rite Ventures seems to differ from a traditional private equity investor in terms of its investment horizon, meaning their holding periods are longer. It could be that this current ownership situation will last longer than I anticipate. I wonder if Rite genuinely wants to take the company private. The dynamics between Rite and Joki-Hollanti are also interesting. Do both share the same future outlook regarding Lemonsoft?
Lemonsoft still remains in my portfolio. However, I haven’t added to the stock during this year because I don’t want too large a weighting for it.
Lemonsoft’s COO and member of the management team Reeti Saarinen is moving on to new challenges
Lemonsoft Oyj | Company Release | 27.09.2026 at 21:10:00 EEST
Lemonsoft Oyj’s Chief Operating Officer and member of the management team Reeti Saarinen has decided to move on to new opportunities outside the company. Saarinen will leave her position and her seat on Lemonsoft’s management team by October 31, 2026.
Lemonsoft Oyj’s updated management team consists of the following persons and roles:
Alpo Luostarinen, CEO
Kari Joki-Hollanti, Chief Development Officer
Mari Erkkilä, CFO
Janne Tammi, CTO
Jarno Lehikoinen, Sales Director
Kari Yli-Hakuni, Product Management Director
Yhtiön suurin omistaja Rita Ventures on ostellut vähän osakkeita. Lemonsoftin hallituksessa on pj:na on Ritan toimari Christopher Häggblom.\n\n> Lemonsoft Oyj | Yhtiötiedote | 29.09.2026 klo 17:00:00 EEST\n> \n> Ilmoitusvelvollinen\n> Nimi: Rite LS SPV AB\n> Asema: Lähipiiriin kuuluva henkilö\n> (X) Oikeushenkilö (1):Liikkeeseenlaskijassa johtotehtävissä toimiva henkilö\n> Nimi: Christoffer Häggblom\n> Asema: Hallituksen jäsen/varajäsen\n> (2):Liikkeeseenlaskijassa johtotehtävissä toimiva henkilö\n> Nimi: Michael Richter\n> Asema: Hallituksen jäsen/varajäsen\n> Liikkeeseenlaskija: Lemonsoft Oyj\n> LEI: 743700OHBVFFCVF69E45\n> Ilmoituksen luonne: ENSIMMÄINEN ILMOITUS\n> Viitenumero: 174379/7/6\n> \__________________________________________\\n> Liiketoimen päivämäärä: 2026-09-25\n> Kauppapaikka: FIRST NORTH GROWTH MARKET FINLAND (FSME)\n> Instrumenttityyppi: OSAKE\n> ISIN: FI4000512678\n> Liiketoimen luonne: HANKINTA\n> Liiketoimien yksityiskohtaiset tiedot\n> (1): Volyymi: 563578 Yksikköhinta: 4.53 EUR\n> Liiketoimien yhdistetyt tiedot (1):\n> Volyymi: 563578 Keskihinta: 4.53 EUR\n\n\nhttps://www.inderes.fi/releases/lemonsoft-oyj-johdon-liiketoimet-rite-ls-spv-ab-9\n\nEnnen ostoa tilanne oli tämä:\n\n
Lemonsoft certainly has an interesting situation in terms of ownership. Rite Ventures and the company’s founder, Kari Joki-Hollanti, now together own 90.37% of all shares. Following Lemonsoft’s earlier share buybacks, the company still holds 2.56% of the outstanding shares.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise in itself if, at some point, we got news that “Rite-Kari BidCo” made a tender offer for the remainder of the company’s shares. For that remaining ~7% stake on the stock exchange, one could easily afford to pay quite a substantial premium without having to sink a very significant sum of money into it relative to Lemonsoft’s total value
To this I will add that with a stake of over 90%, this imagined “BidCo” could directly initiate redemption proceedings for minority shareholders, meaning in a way it wouldn’t even need to make a tender offer anymore.
What would the price then be at which the minority shareholders would be redeemed? These have been fought over in arbitration court for years (e.g., Ahlstrom-Munksjö), but as I understand it, the price should be “fair value.” Around the time of Rite Ventures’ mandatory tender offer seen earlier in the year, the stance of Lemonsoft’s board was that the offered consideration of €4.67 was not reasonable, and the board did not recommend accepting the tender offer. So one would at least imagine that the price would have to be higher than this.
Lemonsoft’s key competitor, Odoo, has announced the release of a new version today (Odoo 20) alongside a 20% price increase. It’s a hefty enough hike that it might already show in customer churn.
A prime opportunity for Lemonsoft in new customer acquisition.
Rite has been buying shares at a rapid pace, and no doubt those share buybacks (including the block trade) were part of this pattern. When the share price continued to decline, Rite bought blocks for itself instead of executing regular share buybacks.
The latest purchase was at €4.53, meaning the dividend portion was likely deducted from the previous €4.67, continuing along the same line.
In my opinion, this provides a psychological floor for the stock. I sold the majority of my holdings when the price was around €5 (if I recall correctly, starting from €4.64 and the most expensive batches at €5.20), but I left a small position waiting for a takeover bid. The trade is already profitable, but the average price of €4.14 for the remaining position allows me to wait a while longer to cash in the final profits.
I believe the company’s business will progress as anticipated and that the stock’s undervaluation is the primary driver behind Rite’s actions. Through a “BidCon” or on Rite’s balance sheet, the company is likely worth more than it currently is on the stock exchange.
Who knows, they might even buy it out and relist it in a better market. Of course, I am somewhat concerned about the AI threat and the management team turnover, which continued just recently with the departure of a guy who joined earlier this year.
Here are Atte’s thoughts now that the principal owners have eagerly been buying Lemonsoft shares.
Within a week, Rite Ventures has increased its stake in Lemonsoft by 588,832 shares (approx. 3% of total shares). Rite’s ownership now stands at 64.33% and founder Kari Joki-Hollanti’s at 26.17%, making a combined total of 90.5%.
“As a rule, the redeemer also covers the procedure costs and interest. Therefore, we estimate that a voluntary tender offer with a premium could be a more attractive route for owners than a contested redemption.”
I should add that much @Atte_Riikola , that even if Rite’s consortium were to offer €15 per share, they would still have to pay the arbitration tribunal’s costs and expenses. If even a single share remains unredeemed, it goes through arbitration; no one even needs to contest the price, as minority shareholders are always redeemed through an arbitral tribunal.
Personally, the path I specifically see is establishing a consortium, making a tender offer at €4.53, and letting the arbitral tribunal decide whether that is a fair price. Of course, it’s impossible to evaluate these things from the outside.
Lemonsoft Oyj | Inside information | 20.10.2026 at 16:05:00 EEST
Lemonsoft Oyj has decided to initiate change negotiations in accordance with the Act on Co-operation within Undertakings.
The aim of the negotiations is to secure the company’s long-term profitable growth and competitiveness in an operating environment where customer expectations, the competitive landscape, and working methods are evolving rapidly. The company is evaluating its organizational structure and resource allocation in line with its strategic priorities. Key focus areas include strengthening commercial operations and customer relationship development, particularly in core industries, as well as modernizing organizational working methods through new, more efficient tools. The change negotiations are estimated to have an impact of approximately EUR 0.5 million on the company’s annual costs.
The negotiations cover the personnel of the group’s parent company, Lemonsoft Oyj. The company estimates the need for headcount reductions to be at most 9 people. In addition, the negotiations will evaluate role and organizational restructuring, which may also result in the creation of new roles within the company. A total of approximately 134 people in Finland are covered by the change negotiations, while the Lemonsoft Group employs a total of approximately 183 people.
Here is Atte’s preview ahead of Lemonsoft’s Q3 results next Thursday
We expect the company’s revenue to have grown slightly, supported by the Jakamo acquisition earlier this year, while the divestment of Finvoicer and the arrangement seen in Lixan weigh on reported growth figures. We anticipate profitability to remain at a very good level, although our forecast leaves it slightly below the strong comparison period. In the report, our attention will be focused particularly on the development of new sales, as Lemonsoft’s outlook comments in connection with the Q2 report indicated that the market situation is picking up. In addition, recent ownership arrangements and our speculation regarding a potential delisting of the company add their own flavor to the earnings release.
Atte on reippaana poikana tehnyt yhtiöraportin Lemonsoftista.
Toistamme Lemonsoftin osta-suosituksen ja 6,0 euron tavoitehinnan. Q3-luvut olivat pitkälti linjassa odotuksiimme, ja teimme lähivuosien tulosennusteisiin vain pieniä tarkennuksia alaspäin. Markkinatilanne on jatkanut parantumistaan ja myyntiputken alkupää on piristynyt selvästi. Odotamme tämän alkavan heijastua yhtiön kasvuun ensi vuoden aikana. Tähän nähden osakkeen arvostus (2027e EV/EBIT 10x) on edelleen hyvin houkutteleva.
