In my opinion, target prices and recommendations are often a bit misunderstood. They are not quite as “logically” connected to each other as one might initially think.
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I just looked from NN’s application, but Saab’s P/E is 71.7. There are some growth expectations priced into that.
“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. The stock price does not necessarily reflect Saab’s true value.
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Intellegon’s downhill rally continues. The gradient just seems to be already steeper than downhill cycling level.
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The direction is indeed unusually clear. The price has almost halved in a few weeks and the pace is accelerating. One has really had to be careful with these Swedish stock market (svedupörssin) papers (this and Verve) in the portfolio. The prices fluctuate completely wildly.
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What kind of fire sales are these now? Kalmar down yesterday in the closing auction and back up today.
Now Kempower -5%, why is that?
Nordea pudotti tänäänsuositustaan
As such, we reiterate our Sell recommendation and trim
our DCF-based target price to EUR 13.0 (13.5).
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In growth companies, analysts’ forecasts tend to be quite spread out, because a large part of the company’s value is determined by distant cash flows. For example, in Inderes’ analysis of Saab, the terminal component of discounted cash flows (2035 and beyond) is 81%.
I wouldn’t underestimate the work of analysts. Both their due diligence and expertise are likely better than 99% of investors. However, they don’t have a crystal ball either. I would personally prefer if the analysis included bull, base, and bear target prices, which would communicate the uncertainties related to the investment case better than a single target price.
Regarding Saab, the analysts’ consensus looks like this, so Inderes isn’t even the most bearish of the group.
Finally, a word of caution. In my opinion, the European defense industry is the clearest bubbling sector in the market. For example, there were no Europe Defence UCITS ETFs before this year, and now there are 9. I don’t know where we are in the bubble, but eventually, Saab’s stock price curve will likely start to resemble this very familiar curve to you. I recommend gradually lightening your position so that you can lock in profits from your successful stock pick this time.
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What technical indicator made you buy at that exact point? Or did any?
I guess the indicator in question was “Mikko Mäkinen buys, you buy too.”
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This is a good example of why you shouldn’t buy into falling markets. The first dip looks like a good buying opportunity, and maybe even the second, but in reality, the bottom might not be close at all. I can’t remember how many times I’ve fallen for this myself, and I did so this time too. The exception now is that my purchases have been small, and I’ve saved larger ones for when the price starts to rise again. If it does.
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And one should not let “I am a Saabist” thoughts enter one’s mind. Attachment to any stock is a bit like having a tiger as a pet. It will bite you eventually.
It’s better to remember it with longing only after its fur has been sold.
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I don’t know, but my Kalmar buy order, which had been waiting for a while, quite conveniently went through.
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What just happened to UPM? A 3% flash rise and then a drop back to starting levels. Someone must have made a somewhat larger purchase 
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Perhaps family members of insiders overheard while getting something from the fridge that Kempower would soon issue a negative profit warning. As the market tends to anticipate the future 
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