New ATH as well:
30 Likes
THAT IS IT, THE SLIDE HAS STOPPED!
39 Likes
MSTR (Bitcoin) 1min chart. Automatic buy (trade) from support approximately 2 seconds before Trump’s message. I also went long on many other stocks just a couple of minutes before the message. Sometimes you get lucky.
17 Likes
This S&P 500 heatmap gives a foretaste of where money flowed as soon as we received (once again) positive news and Trump’s 180-degree U-turn regarding the war. The AI trade is predictably strong, airlines are likely to benefit, industrials turned into a solid rally, etc. The outlook for many companies is improving rapidly if the uncertainty were to be removed. A potential end to the war would, of course, be particularly positive for sentiment.
This is potentially negative for, among others, XLE, oil, and parts of the energy trade.
A grim reminder that the continuation is still in the hands of a narcissist of the worst kind, whose next moves have been difficult to predict. For now, however, it looks reasonably good. The war should end so that we could focus on the Epstein files again.
39 Likes
A message just came in; the market continued with a big bounce immediately following the news below. Go figure. Apparently, the market still has faith in Trump’s speeches.
Rate hike expectations just collapsed completely on FedWatch. That is also impacting the indices’ rally.
US10y is falling and is down -2.3%.
18 Likes
For the time being, the price of gold suggests that the story is true. If it is indeed true, then bonds go down and precious metals go up. In that case, there will be a rush to buy.
2 Likes
I have often wondered about Taiwan Semiconductor and how one should view China’s intentions regarding Taiwan and the company’s future. The stock price keeps rising as the company performs well, but how would the risk of war or a potential military crisis affect things? Everyone is aware of this threat, so I don’t claim to have any inside information here. 
But in general, how should one approach geopolitical risk?
7 Likes
Adobe has dropped about -45% in a year.
Earnings were released today and beat both EPS and revenue expectations. The 2026 revenue guidance was raised. The trailing 12-month EPS is likely dipping below 10…
Price reaction in after-hours: -6%.
OK, the CFO left for Marvell, but shouldn’t this be worth significantly more than a ~$200 stock?
15 Likes
On the other hand, if Taiwan is attacked and semiconductor supply chains are disrupted, then quite a few other stocks will also crash through the floor 
The risk of ruin is, of course, still higher in just TSMC alone.
3 Likes
That seems to have risen by about +50% in a fairly short amount of time. Personally, I have the impression, conviction, and belief that by actively following frontline news, such as Inderes, I’ll have time to sell off my holdings during that first -30% drop. I would probably take a hit of that magnitude even if I were determined and fast. However, relative to the recent pace of growth, I’ve figured that I would ultimately come out ahead in such a trade.
There’s something here I really don’t understand. And yes, all the threats of AI disruption are known, but there’s no way this should be priced like this. At the aftermarket price and with a 12-month rolling adjusted EPS, the P/E is 9, and the EV/EBIT is probably even lower… Considering the company’s track record, the price is absolutely mind-boggling.
4 Likes
Yeah, it’s interesting that the market believes Trump’s storytelling. Neste is down 5% again because the oil crisis is supposedly over—IT IS NOT, by the way, it’s only getting worse…
10 Likes
Did the truck hit the road 
:
Tokmanni Group
7.430 EUR
+2.84% (+0.205)
13 Likes
For a split second, I got the feeling that Mango is going cheap right now. 
Until I remembered.
18 Likes
Do you have some better information? Strangely enough, oil just keeps dropping…
Well yeah, I can’t keep track of these anymore. The market really seems to believe this nonsense for quite a while this time…
3 Likes
It’s a shame we didn’t get any proper chaos out of this. I was lurking to see if we’d get a real spike when those who can’t do math buy the dip. At the opening, a few measly shares changed hands at a slightly higher price, but no classic “Hesuli” (Helsinki Stock Exchange) bungling was observed.
The brokers adjust the yield outlooks to the correct levels all too efficiently 
2 Likes
