That TPL, or Texas Pacific Land Corporation, which appears in every period, is probably unknown to most on the forum; it is a company founded already in 1888 that owns ~3600 km² of land in the Permian Basin area in Texas. In the 2010s, vast amounts of oil were found beneath the company’s properties, from the production of which TPL receives royalties.
“Texas Pacific Land Holdings was created in 1888 in the wake of the Texas and Pacific Railway bankruptcy, as a means to dispose of the T&P’s vast land holdings. Over 3.5 million acres were put into the trust, and bondholders exchanged their bonds for shares.”
The masseuse hints that prices will likely rocket to the limit if this “guru” predicts a collapse.
The competence of the said best-selling author is already evident in the fact that he suggests protecting the portfolio with Bitcoin and Ethereum. Anyone can go and see from the Bitcoin and Eth charts how wonderfully these protected, for example, during last month’s tariff threats.
The joke here is that when a person who has predicted 126 of the previous two crashes claims that a crash is coming, then the opposite is more likely to happen.
Limit up = maximum gains for the day before Nasdaq calls the game off.
There seemed to be some news again about how Berkshire’s cash pile has continued to grow. That Berkshire cash pile is, to me, a bit exciting in a horror-movie-like way; you’re like in a house where something is wrong, but it hasn’t shown itself yet.
You put my feelings into words. Something is wrong, but I’m completely in a fog as to what it is, an AI bubble or what. Buffett is waiting, and that’s not a comfortable feeling from a stock investor’s perspective. He said directly that he isn’t accumulating cash just for his successor, but the cash enables action in difficult times. He said something like he believes the cash will be put to use not next week, but on the other hand, within five years.
I also have a large stock weighting, and some cash too, but that could go into new investments relatively soon. I try to stay away from the most “fashionable” industries and companies; my thoughts are more along the lines of Japan (okay, that’s starting to be in fashion too) and perhaps in some small Finnish companies.
We live in interesting times, and that’s often not a good thing; boring times are better. Well, a small investor can’t do much here.
On the other hand, the bubble and its collapse are being shouted about everywhere. At least my X feed is full of similar 'we ‘bout to crash’ messages. Will the collapse come with a bell around its neck this time?
In the 2021 peaks, the atmosphere was very different, and everyone seemed to believe that this time is different. My gut feeling says that as long as NVIDIA performs, there’s nothing to worry about.
I don’t remember if this was posted here, but these first “old Buffet is an idiot with his cash” messages have also been seen. These taunts have historically ended poorly.
On the other hand, this crash is so expected, will it even happen?
But does “performing,” that is, traditional performance in terms of numbers, still matter for these (companies/stocks) when everything is based on constantly growing expectations? What happens when it’s no longer possible to exceed expectations, and over-expect
We will, of course, only see this in retrospect. Buffett predicted the existence of the tech bubble a couple of years before the crash. During that time, stock prices still rose wildly after Buffett’s warnings.
I personally see the danger in this equation that large investments are changing the nature of tech companies into capital-intensive giants. And that the profit margins seen now are not sustainable for the entire industry; competition will erode margins, and that, combined with large investments, can be a really bad thing for some companies.
Well, these are just my thoughts as I try to understand Buffett’s actions. He has been consistently accumulating cash for quite some time now. It could be that this is about something entirely different than market valuations.
I completely understand what you mean, and I don’t even know how to answer.
Has Nvidia’s stock, for example, become a bubble? It depends a lot on what metric one wants to look at. Graham numbers and P/E might not be the most relevant right now. An LTM EV/EBIT of 50x would certainly suggest it, but what if the company meets analysts’ expectations (as it has for so many years)? The EV/EBIT for the next 12 months would be 29x. High, but is it impossible for a company with such a moat, which is likely to continue growing for a long time? I don’t know. In the 2021 bubble, however, it reached approximately 100x EV/EBIT (LTM), and back then there wasn’t this kind of talk about AI regarding Nvidia. So, in this respect, the valuation has decreased (yes, the growth rate will also surely slow down at some point). The point is, I wouldn’t yet put a bubble label on Nvidia (and you didn’t claim that!), but I believe Nvidia’s good performance will continue.
The fact that everything relies on one giant is certainly worrying. Somehow, in the current AI hype, there’s just this trust in this enabler of everything. In itself, quite understandable.
My own perspective goes about 12 months at a time, and during this period, I don’t think there’s any significant softness coming to the above.
Having written this, and as proof forever remaining on the interwebs, the markets will very likely crash within the next couple of weeks.
What has stuck in my mind from a competing forum is the phrase “Buffett knows how to sit on cash.” He always sits on it; sometimes there’s less, sometimes more. From some context, I remember him saying that cash should never run out. During the financial crisis, he went all out with an elephant gun, but still had cash left. If one plays that NVIDIA game, one allocates cash there when the company is at the $40 level and buys if it’s a good business. Still, he has cash left to buy at the $20 level. (Something else might also be cheap at that point.) Buffett has famously said that investing is simple, but difficult. When valuations are high, one should buy little, and when valuations are low, one should buy a lot.
In my opinion, Nvidia has been artificially propping up a rotten global market for a couple of years now. Nvidia=S&P 500=global stock markets.
As long as Nvidia or Nvidia’s event horizon is strong enough, genuinely or artificially, the music plays, Wall Street celebrates, and everything is “fine.” I’m swimming against the current and have been waiting for a collapse to happen (I do own Helsinki stock exchange shares with a 100% stock weight and I realize that they will also fall in a collapse) but this has lasted an incredibly long time. Of course, I’ve missed out on fabulous returns (at least theoretically) with many companies benefiting from this phenomenon, but that’s part of the game. When AI runs out of steam, a new PE500 stock market driver or, more accurately, a stock market phenomenon will already have been created under Wall Street’s leadership, and there will be plenty of time to jump on that train.
Enersense’s target price at Inderes has risen quite a bit over the last 6 months. On 23.4.2025, the target price was €2.4 with an ‘add’ recommendation, and the latest update today is €5.2 with an ‘add’ recommendation.
There has been discussion about this, and apparently, it’s not just one reason, but a sum of many factors:
Future earnings: At some point, the global situation will calm down, the economy will pick up, and especially from 2027 onwards, electricity-hungry data centers and similar facilities will start entering the market.
AI-hype: Energy sector stocks are highly sought after, especially across the Atlantic, and the ripples extend here. Amusingly, during Fortum’s recent earnings report announcement, some professional analysts were almost in a FOMO-hype state regarding this issue
General market surge, especially in Helsinki: the former “Pölhölä’s” (Finland’s) stock price increase has beaten NYSE, Stockholm, cryptocurrencies, DAX, etc. this year.
Fortum’s past blunders are fading into oblivion, and in a turbulent world, investors are starting to see Fortum as a good kind of sturdy, stable, all-weather institution.
Fortum as a real estate investment: According to Anders Oldenburg’s calculations, even conservatively viewed, Fortum’s share price should be around €22-23. The current selling price level of hydropower alone and its value in the Nordics justifies a level of €15+, plus the even larger production of nuclear power and district heating on top of that.
The next stage is Fortum’s Capital Markets Day on 25.11.2025. I fear that if nothing special is announced then, there might be a setback in the share price. On the other hand, if something interesting is announced, could the upward surge continue to those “Fortum as a real estate investment” figures?
Somehow, in the current AI hype, there’s just this trust in this enabler of everything. In itself, quite understandable.
Catman is busy