Neonode’s daily rises continue to brighten up the current autumn.
The stock is gradually moving towards pricing in the resolution of Case Samsung, likely next summer (through a settlement).
Based on information from literature sources familiar with the matter cited by RedEye, companies that have reached Phase 3 of Patent Litigation have approximately a 98.7% probability of winning the case finally in court or, alternatively, reaching a settlement. This is also very strongly supported by the fact that the legal process is taking place in a Texas court.
Considering that this is a jury trial, the statistical probability of either settling or winning the lawsuit against Samsung is 98.7% (95% + (1 - 95%) * 74%).
We assume gross proceeds for Samsung will be USD4.7bn and USD5.6bn for Apple if the Neonode side wins in court. A settlement with Samsung, which we think is highly likely, at 30% of the total value, would give Neonode USD500m (or USD31 per share) after tax. We also estimate that winning in court against Apple would give Neonode USD1.9bn after all costs and taxes, equivalent to USD121 per share.