Fears and hype over cryptocurrency price

Dec 05, 2024
$103,900.47

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Didn’t XRP have several positive news items that fueled the rally and long-term interest?
e.g., those lawsuits are “fading out” and an ETF and Stablecoin, etc., are coming.
There has been a lot of buzz around it, and for me, this is also part of the long-term slice of the pie.
There could be quite interesting months ahead for this “coin” as well.

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Increases over the year for the largest cryptocurrencies:

BTC +145 %
ETH +78 %
SOL +300 %
XRP +283 %
BNB +215 %
DOGE +405 %
ADA +202 %
TRX +224 %
AVAX +139 %
SHIB +245 %
TON +192 %

Ethereum has undeniably been the biggest disappointment. It remains to be seen if it will catch up to the others by the end of the cycle. XRP has been in the headlines a lot in recent weeks, but its increases are not exceptional in the big picture. They have just occurred in a very short period.

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I logged into my Crypto.com account after an 18-month break and the account had risen from 1000 USD to 4500 USD :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:. I had bought all sorts of shitcoins in fairly even amounts back in the day with 1500 USD. I’ll leave it there and see what happens. Quite a frenzy at the moment.

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BTC went above 88kusd. A small warning about what volatility means.

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https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1864802685180088576

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https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1864804695132508217?s=46&t=WM9TG4iqI1ZAhDGcU7VSHg
BREAKING: In the past 24 hours, 211,642 traders were liquidated in crypto, with the total liquidations coming in at $1.08 billion.

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Ethereum is back above four thousand. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1865049955913580851
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Yesterday (or last night), history was made when Bitcoin’s price closed above the 100K mark for the first time on a daily and weekly basis.

The fluctuation around that 100K has been peculiar, at least compared to my own estimates. I expected 100K to act as a much stronger and clearer resistance. Since 100K was broken early on Thursday, it has been passed through in both directions without any problems. At least currently, 100K does not seem to be any abnormal support or resistance.

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GeZBm7LWkAA-6kq

A slight dip in the air.

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Perhaps the decline is also accelerated by many panic sales from those who invested with consumer loans. The change of direction will probably be just as fast, especially if there is no negative news behind it.

BREAKING: In the past 24 hours, 572,222 crypto traders were liquidated, with the total liquidations coming in at $1.72 billion

Overly enthusiastic leveraged traders were wiped out of the market, nothing more. Rapid price swings in the crypto market are always caused by these. I read comments that it would have been the biggest “liquidation event” since 2021.

You can follow the data here: Bitcoin Liquidations, Cryptocurrency Liquidations, Real-Time Liquidation Heatmap, Binance Liquidations | CoinGlass

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Can you @Antti_Hyppanen confirm how it gets its data? Apparently, it’s based on derivatives whose knockouts can be tracked? I’m not familiar with these services, but if we assume they offer a similar limit to Nordnet, then surely forced sales cannot be distinguished from regular trading?

e: I read that disclaimer, so apparently it’s based on brokers’ reports.

If that 1.72 billion is divided equally among 572,222 traders, then fortunately it’s only 3000 dollars per head.

I can’t comment on that data.

I would guess that in practice, most of that sum is concentrated among a small group of very large professional traders, and then there are quantitatively many “small fish”.

Oh really? I claim that this was a significant event and we will next see the 80k level. BTC still has a large number of players who think of this purely as trading. I stayed up last night and made the biggest profit of the year in a single event. And many others in our community did the same - not only with BTC, of course.

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I don’t know how you interpret my message, but my point was that it was just the liquidation of traders’ positions - nothing more significant.

In other words, there was no earth-shattering news related to Bitcoin that caused the price to drop. Trump canceling the Bitcoin reserve or the Fed deciding to raise interest rates, etc. It’s just price fluctuation, which is very volatile during such a market when large numbers of longs (and also shorts) are swept aside at once.

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What I meant was that since this forum is also followed by those less knowledgeable about the matter, let’s not downplay the events. You yourself have talked about how ETFs and leveraged products have brought liquidity to the markets. That shows in both directions, doesn’t it? Yes, there’s big money involved with stop-losses in place.

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I’m not really sure what exactly is being discussed anymore, but I’ll just answer: ok.

Those who follow Bitcoin less closely always ask first why the price dropped. For every price drop, people always want to know a reason. “What was in the news today that made Bitcoin’s price drop?”

Price increases and decreases don’t need any reason in a market like this. Sometimes, eager traders are just swept out of the market, and these events then cause the price to move sharply up or down. A regular buy & hold investor doesn’t need to react to these in any way. Bitcoin’s fundamentals are exactly the same today as they were yesterday, a week ago, or a month ago.

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We agree on this. But not on whether they exist - as I copied a comment about Saylor’s fundamental thinking. That’s pure nonsense. And don’t get me wrong - in my opinion, real crypto is based on Ethernet.

Simplified, the price drop was caused by the following factors:

  • The price rose sharply last week, breaking the 100k USD milestone. As the price rises, new buyers enter, and sellers wait for the rise to turn.

  • When the price rise turns, traders start taking profits, and the market shifts from an overbought state → to an oversold state.

  • No new buyers are entering because people are now getting used to what 95k - 100k USD BTC feels like. Possibly at some point, they will get used to 96k USD BTC being affordable. At that point, the price has room to rise again.

  • For many long-term holders, the pot is starting to be so large that taking profits becomes tempting, even for risk management reasons. Psychologically, 100k USD has been a significant milestone, and certainly many have considered reducing their position etc. when the price reached this figure.

  • When the price rises like one green dildo, taking profits is not tempting. When the price saws a bit below this 100k USD milestone, over time, taking profits starts to sound increasingly attractive. → the price tends to saw, for example, between 95k - 101k for a while, after which the price starts to saw at a slightly lower level, for example, 90k - 96k USD. (Based on this development, it is difficult to say whether the price will rise in the future or drop lower.)

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