One could ask a question that touches upon/deals with (the difficulty of) maintaining market share in the future, as competitors are now trying to grow theirs more or less aggressively. Also, how difficult/challenging does he find managing this group, given that it operates across many different industries??
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Regarding grocery market share. Now that it has turned upwards again, is the goal to grow it continuously? Or is there a certain level that is considered sufficient, after which they will start cutting back on price investments? How important does Kesko consider the results of shopping basket comparisons conducted by the media, and do they have a significant impact on customer flow? Kesko always loses in those, but does it matter to them at all?
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Arhi has conducted a price comparison of fresh produce in the grocery sector, inspired by Lidl’s discount campaign in January. The main takeaway of the text is that Lidl beat Prisma and Citymarket by a fairly clear margin on regular-priced products.
If I understood correctly, Arhi is conducting a follow-up study that would also take promotional prices into account, which would narrow the gaps, at least for K-Group, due to its campaign-driven business model.
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Thank you for the questions! If we can’t fit them all into this interview, we’ll address them next quarter.
How do you assess the sustainability of the current business segments’ operating models and structures in a situation where operations are not profitable? Do you see a need for structural changes or reorganization during the strategy period to support growth?
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So, as the headline suggests, this hits S Group. I would argue that Kesko benefits from this, as it has generally focused on quality and brand-name products.
I would argue that you have a habit of spinning all news into something positive for your investments and that absolutely no retail chain will benefit from that reform.
Since Kesko often has a larger price gap between private label products and brand products compared to, for example, S Group, I also venture to doubt whether it would fare any easier under that reform than its main competitor.
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Kesko’s 2025 financial statement release is out: Kesko’s comparable operating profit improved and net sales grew across all divisions in 2025. An earnings turnaround was seen towards the end of the year as the third-quarter results improved, and growth continued in the fourth quarter. Kesko’s market position strengthened in almost all business operations during the year.
Guidance for 2026 and future outlook: Both Kesko’s operating environment and comparable operating profit are estimated to improve in 2026 across all divisions and operating countries. The comparable operating profit for 2026 is estimated to be in the range of EUR 650–750 million.
Dividend: Kesko’s Board of Directors proposes to the Annual General Meeting to be held on 26 March 2026 that a dividend of €0.90 per share be paid, again in four installments. The dividend payout ratio of 84% is in line with the dividend policy; strong growth investments continue.
Release and all result materials: https://www.kesko.fi/sijoittaja/raportit-ja-presentaatiot/#event64265
And a reminder that the management’s results briefing in Finnish can be viewed starting at 10:30: https://kesko.events.inderes.com/2025-q4-tulokset
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Arttu Heikura interviewed Kesko’s President and CEO Jorma Rauhala in honor of the Q4 results 
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:12 Summary of Q4 results
02:38 Market share growth
04:24 Price competition
06:18 Shopping basket comparisons by the media
08:51 Building and technical trade situation
10:54 Country-specific differences
12:18 Onninen’s competitive situation
14:03 Car trade development and competition
16:46 Impact of the scrappage scheme campaign on the new car market
18:19 Group structure
20:21 Role of sports trade in Kesko
21:16 Investments, debt situation, and profit distribution
23:44 Background assumptions for the guidance
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This train is moving along quite nicely. At least for me, the biggest concern has been the grocery trade side, where the situation now seems to be stabilizing. I didn’t quickly spot anything concerning to latch onto, but past failures related to international expansion always haunt in the background. Hopefully, the lessons learned from them will carry a long way.
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It’s been quiet here since the results. Here are our thoughts on Q4 and the 2026 guidance. The outlook seems relatively positive, especially looking toward 2027. For this reason, we maintained a positive view, even though the valuation multiples for the current year are quite tight.
Highlights:
- The net impact of the grocery trade (PT-kauppa) store network renewal should be neutral in 2026 and positive in 2027. In 2025, the network still had a negative impact on market shares. In other words, the price investment program yielded significant results, especially in Citymarkets.
- The price investment program continues, and retailers are committed to it, in typical Kesko fashion.
- There are no clear signs of improvement in the building and technical trade (RT-kauppa) market yet, but internal price competition within the industry seems to have subsided. Competitors have apparently realized that the business must also generate a profit in the long run, which has put pressure on price increases. Kesko generates the majority of the market’s profit in technical wholesale in Finland.
- In the car trade, the market is expected to remain weak, but the scrapping incentive may provide some support for the development of the new car market. K-Auto’s growth is therefore based on the company’s own strong performance.
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OP, for its part, lowered the target price to 21 euros from the previous 21.5 euros and moved from an ‘add’ recommendation to ‘reduce’.
The guidance is only marginally better than the guidance at the beginning of last year. During Rauhala’s tenure, there has been a bit of a tendency toward excessive optimism, so the stock certainly doesn’t look cheap. A quality company trading at a rich valuation.
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Arhi Kivilahti has written about Kesko’s results and more: Keskon vuosi 2025 - hyvä loppukiri lupaa parempaa tälle vuodelle
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Good overview. Personally, I see Kesko as an internationalization story. Of course, it is interesting and important that the market share battle at home is going well. But if internationalization succeeds, there is potential for almost anything here. In my opinion, Kesko is at a fairly good stage; after initially banging its head against the wall in Sweden with the K-rauta concept, it should now have the necessary humility and desire to learn and leverage the experiences gained from those failures. A lot now depends on the management.
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Director of Automotive Trade Johanna Ali visited Kauppalehti’s Talousaamu to talk about last year’s results, this year’s outlook, and the state of the automotive industry.
Johanna speaking from 11:25 onwards: [Bitcoin sulaa rajusti, huonekalukaupasta karmea tieto – Katso maanantain Talousaamu | Kauppalehti](Kauppalehti
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