Keskisuomalainen

Stocks
46

I posted this in this thread because these matters have the most relative impact on Keskisuomalainen. :slight_smile:

According to statistics published by Kantar, the amount of media advertising in Finland decreased by almost 6% in June compared to the reference period. Cumulatively, the development for the entire beginning of the year is a good 2% negative, even though the spring elections have supported the market.

1 Like
47

Arttu has given his pre-comments, as Keskisuomalainen will report its results next week Friday. :slight_smile:

Growth in the distribution business and improved efficiency have enabled a clear turnaround in Keskisuomalainen’s H1 results, even though market development in media advertising, which is important for the company, has been sluggish. Through this, the guidance indicating revenue growth and a clear improvement in results will also be reiterated. The greatest interest in the report will therefore focus on the magnitude of the earnings improvement, which has been difficult to estimate so far. Additionally, the report will be interested in the development of News Media content revenues and the growth of digital out-of-home advertising.

1 Like
48

Keskisuomalainen Oyj improves earnings outlook for 2025

4 Likes
49

Here are Arttu’s comments on Keskisuomalainen’s positive profit warning from yesterday. :slight_smile:

3 Likes
50

Arttu has published a new company report on Keskisuomalainen after H1. :slight_smile:

Keskisuomalainen’s H1 earnings turnaround was stronger than we predicted, and the near-term outlook appears better than anticipated. The well-advanced digital transition remains a key driver for the investor story. The stock’s valuation seems neutral in our opinion, but a strong dividend yield almost covers our required rate of return. Consequently, we reiterate our Add recommendation. The target price rises to 9.0 euros (previously 8.0) due to positive forecast changes.

3 Likes
51

Arttu and Tomi discussed Keskisuomalainen regarding H1. :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:20 Strong turnaround in results
01:19 Posti’s exit from the market enabled an improvement in distribution business results
03:50 Digital out-of-home advertising revenue decreased
05:32 Strategy update in late autumn
07:34 Declining businesses increase risk level
08:14 Strong balance sheet and cash flow
09:56 Substantial dividend yield attracts

1 Like
52

Below are Petri’s comments. This also concerns Alma, Ilkka, and Sanoma, but media advertising affects Keskisuomalainen the most, which is why I put it in this thread. :slight_smile:

1 Like
53

HS has published an article about the main owner of Keskisuomalainen based on a recent book:

For an investor, the most interesting takeaway is likely the author’s speculations:

Screenshot_2025-09-17-08-56-01-12_7597639fbab5ceff7c2592d81775f123~2
Screenshot_2025-09-17-08-56-01-12_7597639fbab5ceff7c2592d81775f123~21062×1012 154 KB

And the fact that Kangaskorpi apparently regrets the Alma deal he himself scuttled back then

![Screenshot_2025-09-17-08-56-17-39_7597639fbab5ceff7c2592

1 Like
54

Yle also has an article about the book:

Big changes are coming:

Kangaskorpi states that the successor will not come from the family. His sister, Soili Kangaskorpi, the second largest owner of the media group, is a diplomat, Finland’s climate and environment ambassador, and is not interested in the media business. The children are not continuing the work either.

– At an appropriate stage, we will look for a professional. For someone coming from outside, the learning curve is steep, because the group has over a hundred different brands, he says.

He is not yet leaving his position, but recent health problems also remind him of his own capacity to cope.

– We’ll see how my health holds up. In any case, major changes must be made within a few years, Kangaskorpi states.

1 Like
55

Who could be the buyer? The competition authority is unlikely to approve Alma or Hesari.

56

Well, it’s difficult to estimate what the competition authority would say if it were Alma or Sanoma. Of course, various arrangements are also possible with Ilkka. Keskisuomalainen’s business operations could also be beneficial to an operator that doesn’t already have similar business operations. Splitting it up is also an option.

All of this is, of course, purely speculation, and it’s unlikely anything will happen immediately.

57

Of course, a seller is also required, and the ownership of Keskisuomalainen is very strongly fragmented. Even if Kangaskorpi and company found a suitable buyer, it is by no means certain that a sufficiently large portion of the current owners would be willing to sell. When it comes to an industry where values other than maximizing wealth are important, I can even bet that getting 90% approval from the owners is extremely challenging. Or at least I can’t immediately think of a suitable buyer candidate.

Of course, a cornerer could acquire some 20% stake in the company with the ownership of Kangaskorpi and company, but I am skeptical of that option as well.

1 Like
58

Here are Petri’s comments on the state of media advertising in August, I put them in this thread because they affect Keskisuomalainen the most. : )

According to statistics published by Kantar, the amount of media advertising in Finland decreased by a good 4% in August compared to the reference period. Thus, the cumulative development for the entire current year is already approaching a 3% decline (1-8’25 - 2.6%).

2 Likes
59

Petri has commented on media advertising in September, I put it in this thread because it concerns Keskisuomalainen relatively the most. :slight_smile:

According to statistics published by Kantar, the amount of media advertising in Finland decreased by 1% in September compared to the reference period. As a result, the cumulative development for the entire current year is now a good 2% negative (1-9’25 - 2.4%).

1 Like
60

This likely secures a euro in earnings per share for next year as well.

3 Likes
61

A good solution for Keskisuomalainen. Savon Sanomat’s old premises are, to my understanding, quite dysfunctional, and in the future, the number and location of premises can be optimized as needed. Novapolis’s Viestikatu premises are high-quality, and I would imagine that various other collaborations are possible, e.g., with companies renting space in Novapolis’s premises.

Roughly calculated, a 4.0 million euro investment would correspond to a 0.322 million euro share of KPY Novapolis’s operating profit (2024). Rental costs, on the other hand, would be approximately 0.240 million euros per year.

62

Here are Viljakainen’s comments on Keskisuomalainen’s new solutions. :slight_smile:

Keskisuomalainen announced on Friday that it is selling its property located in the center of Kuopio. The company will record a sales gain of EUR 3.4 million from the transaction for 2026 and will reinvest the purchase price back into the acquiring company. According to our preliminary assessment, the property arrangements will not have a radical impact on Keskisuomalainen’s long-term forecasts or our view on the stock.

3 Likes
63

Here are Petri’s comments on media advertising in October, I put them in this thread because this segment is relatively the largest part of Keskisuomalainen’s revenue. :slight_smile:

2 Likes