Japan as an investment destination - Land of the rising or setting sun?

Investors believe that the Japanese currency, the yen, will weaken in the future. This is evidenced by the fact that investors have made related investments, even though the Japanese government has issued warnings about a potential intervention in the currency markets.

There is still uncertainty and risk related to the value of the yen in Japan.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1777195157126857197

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Here’s more on the Japanese yen again


https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1779690112495882623
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and a little bit about the country’s stock market. :slight_smile:

https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1779615263182270751

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An interesting observation regarding Japan, or more accurately, the Japanese:

https://twitter.com/hubertlepicki/status/1786670763912638654

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Then the discussions below the tweet:

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Japan’s economy has contracted for the last three quarters. Negative growth figures and EDIT: GDP growth is approaching zero or even turning negative. Previously read: GDP is approaching zero. @Hapzu I wouldn’t have noticed it myself. :stuck_out_tongue:

The country is still aiming for positive GDP growth and 2% inflation, good luck to them! They are resorting to debt and structurally low yields to achieve their goals.

https://x.com/jsblokland/status/1791038923881259093

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Japan’s population has been declining for nearly 15 years, while the number of vacant homes has grown. What about the future? As the population ages and shrinks—how can labor shortages, real estate market problems, and especially economic issues be solved? :slight_smile:

https://x.com/GameofTrades_/status/1795122795170660420

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I think too much attention is paid to the total population when talking about a country’s economic resilience. We should instead be tracking the relative share of the working-age population out of the total population. In Japan, it has already been falling for 30 years from 70 percent to well under 60 percent. Fortunately for Japan, this trend has now stalled; life expectancy is no longer increasing and the decline in the birth rate has stopped.
Working-age people are the ones who produce and consume. Of course, others consume as well—children directly using their parents’ funds and retirees indirectly using what the working-age population has the capacity to fund.
The birth rate affects this incredibly slowly; a person born now will be a productive individual in about 20 years. Immigration would have an impact much faster, but immigrants shouldn’t be influenced by the attitude toward childlessness, or the problem is simply postponed. On the other hand, an excessively high birth rate also reduces the relative share of the working-age population.
Japan unfortunately seems to have the world’s strictest immigration restrictions?

Among companies there, the most international ones perform the best. I believe they are safe to invest in


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@Marianne_Palmu is clearly inspired by my post. :sunglasses:

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Energy demand is growing due to the semiconductor industry, and after Fukushima, the decision to restart reactors is not necessarily easy for the country. Restarting will likely bring economic benefits, such as in the form of affordable energy, and perhaps foreign investors will also find the country more attractive.

https://x.com/SStapczynski/status/1795664141438615841

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In Japan, the population is shrinking; population decline, low birth rate, etc.

This can lead to a decline in consumption, a reduction in the workforce, [challenges to] the credibility of the pension system, and economic instability. This can affect the performance of various industries and investment opportunities in Japan. Therefore, it is important to take this demographic trend into account in investment strategies and consider its impact on the Japanese market and economy.

https://x.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1799201960870220114

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And it’s not just that it could, but it already has. Japan’s working-age (15-64) population share has been declining throughout the 2000s:

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Working-Age Population Total: From 15 to 64 Years for Japan (LFWA64TTJPM647S) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

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Here is an article from Salkunrakentaja about Japan—“the basics” and likely some familiar territory, but it’s a good and concise read.

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During my career, I have had the time to work for Finnish, British, American, and Japanese listed companies.

Sometimes I have wondered how these massive Japanese firms fare so well in the global markets. Decision-making is very slow, and caution and risk aversion are highly valued. In my opinion, there is more bureaucracy than in European and US firms. IT systems and tools sometimes feel like they are 10 years behind the times. Employees’ surprisingly poor language skills complicate cooperation with non-Japanese subsidiaries, and interpreters are needed a lot. For many large Japanese companies, a surprisingly large share of sales still comes from the domestic market, which is a risk as the population continues to shrink. But still, there are big international success stories like Toyota, Mitsubishi, Sony, Hitachi, Softbank, and Sumitomo, etc.

Clearly, however, they are doing something right. The cost level in Japan is also surprisingly low nowadays. A Finnish engineer earns a better salary than their colleague in Japan. Somehow, I still think that the corporate culture is not very dynamic and is better suited for producing capital/durable goods than consumer products.

About 2% of my own stock portfolio is invested in Japanese companies.

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Japan is ready to intervene in speculative and excessive currency market fluctuations that harm the country’s economy. At least, this is what a local “currency diplomat” stated.

However, this public stance did not stop the yen from falling below 159 yen per dollar. The government is closely monitoring exchange rate changes and has said they are ready to act if necessary.

https://x.com/PrestonPysh/status/1803973704268779608

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In Japan, however, many continue to work well into old age. Over half of those aged 65–69 are working, as are a third of those aged 70–74, and the figures are on the rise.

A few hours a day for a few days a week, yet they are still counted as employed. Just like the part-time gig workers here. Others have a harsher fate:

Japan has all kinds of economic problems, and perhaps it also reflects the fact that the number of bankruptcies has risen quite a bit. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1804658540751331342

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Kuva


EDIT:

Here is a Bloomberg news story regarding the Japanese yen on a familiar subject.

The yen has weakened against the dollar, approaching 160 yen per dollar, which has prompted the country to warn of a possible intervention to stabilize the situation. Vice Minister Kanda said that authorities are ready to act to prevent excessive fluctuations that could harm the economy.

The yen has indeed been stable recently, but it is still at its weakest in 34 years. It is believed that further measures may be taken if the yen reaches the 160.20 level.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/japan-s-kanda-says-can-intervene-24-hours-a-day-if-needed-1.2088502

There are constant alarmist reports about the collapse of the Japanese yen.

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To my eye, at least, that doesn’t look like a very declining economy. Unlike our Helsinki.

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Those who invested in the Nikkei with euros have captured only half of that gain, as the yen has weakened by 43% over that period.

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From the Bloomberg piece below, I’ll summarize the chatter below, in case that article doesn’t open for everyone. :slight_smile:

Japan’s Topix index reached a new record today, even surpassing the 1989 record. Measured from the latest market bottom, the Topix has risen about 125% in total return, which is almost as much as the S&P 500 has risen, but measured in local currency, the return is less than 50% — lower than in the UK market. This is due to the weakening of the yen, as Japan has maintained an extremely loose monetary policy for longer than expected.

Japanese inflation has started to cause political problems, which is affecting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s low approval ratings. This also makes the weak yen a political issue, as it raises prices in an import-energy-dependent economy. If the central bank starts to pay attention to inflation, it could return capital flows to Japan and curb, among other things, bond yields.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-04/the-biggest-political-risk-to-markets-may-lie-in-japan?srnd=economics-v2&sref=ZVajCYcV

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