Intervacc’s cash ran dry (as I predicted) and a new share issue is on the way. The goal is to raise 100 MSEK; naturally, the share price plummeted on this news.
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Q1 report released. The miracle vaccine Strangvac seems to be a major flop. Revenue should be soaring, but surprisingly it fell from the previous quarter to 1.4 M krona. Net result -17 M.
At the time of writing, the share price reaction is only -10% even though, in my opinion, there are grounds for a significantly larger drop.
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Very aptly put – unfortunately! Expectations for the vaccine’s success have been quite high. One can’t help but wonder what exactly has gone wrong; product pricing? a paralyzed marketing organization? some strange reputational issue, i.e., poor efficacy? vaccine hesitancy within horse circles? Either way, the project is inevitably starting to end up in the same category as the Hindenburg and the Titanic.
Hmm. Still, more sales in the UK in 2-3/23 than in 8/22-1/23. Things take time. Have expectations been unrealistic?
-effectiveness in the field seems even better than in trials
-no side effects
? The US is tight-lipped, no word yet on whether a local study is needed.
Currently, a rather pessimistic scenario regarding long-term sales growth is priced into the share price…
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Offering terms published. In a week, shares can be subscribed at a price of 4.10 SEK. Dilution 33% 
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Considering the dilution, the range I pulled out of a hat back then is now 20-26 SEK, while Erik Penser’s new analysis puts it at 26-28 SEK :D. Buying is on pause for now; these tend to drift easily toward the offering price even though it makes no sense. First an overshoot, then an undershoot…
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Negatiivinen kierre jatkuu:
The Board of Directors for Intervacc AB (publ) (”Intervacc”) has together with Andreas Andersson, made the decision that now is the right time for Andreas Andersson to leave his role as President and CEO, which he has held since late 2018.
A bit hasty for my liking; it’s possible they ended up as a scapegoat for the weak sales / share price performance.
Intervacc Q2:
Net sales 1.9 M (SEK)
Operating loss -18 M
Net loss for the period -18 M
To put it plainly, a total fiasco. International sales of the miracle vaccine are a ridiculous 160 thousand euros, which is on the same level as the turnover of some local car repair shop in Kajaani.
Yet the company’s market value is still 26 M euros. I don’t understand…
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It is worth noting that the customer is conservative. The product is very good; the marketing work just needs to be done.
For those with a risk tolerance, there are good opportunities to buy the stock. Those with lower risk tolerance should wait for US marketing authorization; there could still be surprises and expenses from there.
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It’s interesting that the commercialization project for the vaccine product continues, with more countries in the distribution scope, etc. In itself, the company’s stock price is at rock bottom, if not below the basement floor.
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Its time will surely come. The product is very good in terms of its effectiveness; its need is just somewhat relative. Adoption takes its time. Sales are indeed slowly growing, but USA approvals are needed (as always in pharma) to truly make a profit. That will still take a couple of years. Recently, a new CMO was also hired, whose background is with the animal-side “big pharma” Idexx Laboratories.
Here, I ended up leaving about +1000% gains on the table, as an optimistic holder, I didn’t know how to sell, but rather talked myself into believing that there were some grounds for the valuation (during zero-interest rate times).
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Hello, a brand new interview with Intervacc’s new CEO Carl-Johan Dalsgaard about, among other things, the situation in the American market, challenges that must be overcome, and future prospects.
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The share price of this stock has picked up a bit; has there been anything noteworthy in the data or news? The rise started after the video was published; could that be the reason? My own Swedish skills aren’t sufficient to evaluate it.
US approval will decide the fate of this stock. The product is good, but local trials still need to be executed correctly to obtain the approval. Additional expertise has been recruited to the management team and the board; let’s see how they perform. It will likely take a couple more years. At what stage and with what probability the market will start front-running the future remains to be seen.
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