This is a good point of comparison. Another comparison, even less affected by good or bad luck, can be derived from all recommendations. I’ll link to an analysis I recently did on these (Analyysi kaikista Inderesin suosituksista - #31 käyttäjältä vuh - Kehitysideat - Inderes forum)
Indeed, the recommendations haven’t hit the mark this year, and Inderes has so far narrowly lost to the index:
One probably could have been more cautious with these stocks earlier, but it’s also worth remembering that individual stocks have an enormous dispersion regardless of the recommendation:
I’ve been pondering the philosophical question of what actually constitutes a mistaken recommendation?
If markets are efficient, the expected return and dispersion of recommendations in this picture should be the same. Empirically, this does not seem to hold true. At the other extreme, Inderes is an oracle and can precisely predict the return of individual stocks and the entire market 1 year ahead. This is probably impossible. Between these extremes lies some point (which we don’t know) to which stock returns are theoretically possible to predict with available information, and the rest is pure randomness that cannot be avoided.
Therefore, I don’t think Inderes is wrong if the return of an individual stock differs from the recommendation, i.e., ‘Add’ yields a loss and ‘Reduce’ yields a profit. I personally like to follow the expected returns of different recommendations in addition to the dispersion and compare it to the index. This year has gone awry so far. I would gladly make a dashboard out of this 