Inderes Coffee Room (Part 8)

General
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https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/alokas-haastattelee/35425/251?u=rahatonmies

Great interview once again. Especially the section about what your daily life is like is interesting, in addition to investment matters.

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I can’t say which one it is better for, but when considering the future of a growth company, the moat mentioned here as well is truly essential.

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Based on Inderes’ data, I have ranked the companies analyzed by Inderes according to Joel Greenblatt’s Magic Formula. The scores are based on next year’s EV/EBIT (adj.) estimates and ROI estimates instead of ROIC. Here is the top 30.

# Company Recommendation p ev/ebit 24 p roi 24 p total
1 Nurminen Logistics Buy 3 13 16
2 Rush Factory Reduce 14 3 17
3 Alexandria Group Reduce 8 16 24
4 Incap Accumulate 4 20 24
5 Fondia Accumulate 27 6 33
6 Nordea Bank Buy 9 24 33
7 United Bankers Accumulate 28 10 38
8 Titanium Accumulate 38 1 39
9 Consti Plc Buy 10 29 39
10 Raute Buy 7 32 39
11 Evli Accumulate 31 9 40
12 LapWall Accumulate 21 19 40
13 Viafin Service Accumulate 5 38 43
14 Tecnotree Reduce 1 42 43
15 Cargotec B Buy 17 31 48
16 Aktia Bank Accumulate 16 39 55
17 Metso Buy 42 21 63
18 Taaleri Accumulate 15 51 66
19 Innofactor Accumulate 26 41 67
20 Sotkamo Silver Accumulate 2 65 67
21 Tulikivi A Reduce 22 49 71
22 Biohit B Accumulate 50 25 75
23 Scanfil Accumulate 40 35 75
24 Konecranes Accumulate 29 48 77
25 Koskisen Accumulate 11 67 78
26 F-Secure Buy 47 33 80
27 eQ Reduce 79 2 81
28 Orthex Buy 48 36 84
29 Aallon Group Buy 46 44 90
30 Ponsse Reduce 51 40 91
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If we add dividend yield as the third criterion, we’ll have a shopping list ready for the Dividend Party.

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MEME

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Yeah, but even then, the percentage difference between the target price and the current price required by the stock-bro party, i.e., knowledge of future growth, is missing from the table!

Edit: all the rest is just useless data…

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image

So, what would be worth putting in the hat now?

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and it has indeed already risen >50% from this morning’s lows, the boldest made a quick profit on this! :money_mouth_face:

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I’ve noticed a significant market inefficiency regarding these share issues that essentially destroy capital:

If company X conducts a small or medium-sized issue near the current market price, the stock price remains virtually unchanged as soon as the market opens. However, if a massive issue is launched that practically wipes out existing shareholders’ equity, the price at the market open sits hundreds of percent above the subscription price (and usually continues to rise).

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And I’ll give you a spoiler on future developments: it will drop back closer to the levels of the initial drop in the near future.

Because right now, the price is being driven up by “but it fell so much, so it’s cheap” speculators. The sellers will certainly wake up when they notice they now have a chance to get rid of this radioactive waste at a much better price…

And this is perfectly normal; the market is figuring out the Right Price. Maybe the initial drop was an overshoot, but maybe not. In my opinion, the bounce is clearly an overshoot.

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Here is the Dividend Party’s shopping list. :blush: It is leaning heavily towards the financial sector.

# Company Recommendation p EV/EBIT 24 p ROI 24 p Div % 24 p Total
1 Alexandria Group Reduce 8 16 5 29
2 Nordea Bank Buy 9 24 3 36
3 Evli Accumulate 31 9 1 41
4 Titanium Accumulate 38 1 7 46
5 United Bankers Accumulate 28 10 10 48
6 Nurminen Logistics Buy 3 13 34 50
7 Aktia Bank Accumulate 16 39 2 57
8 Consti Plc Buy 10 29 26 65
9 Fondia Accumulate 27 6 45 78
10 Innofactor Accumulate 26 41 16 83
11 LapWall Accumulate 21 19 48 88
12 Tulikivi A Reduce 22 49 22 93
13 eQ Reduce 79 2 20 101
14 Viafin Service Accumulate 5 38 62 105
15 Taaleri Accumulate 15 51 40 106
16 Tietoevry Buy 36 62 11 109
17 Raute Buy 7 32 70 109
18 Fortum Buy 33 71 9 113
19 Cargotec B Buy 17 31 67 115
20 Metso Buy 42 21 54 117
21 Koskisen Accumulate 11 67 43 121
22 Valmet Buy 45 56 31 132
23 F-Secure Buy 47 33 56 136
24 Konecranes Accumulate 29 48 64 141
25 Orthex Buy 48 36 58 142
26 Puuilo Accumulate 89 14 41 144
27 Mandatum Buy 53 88 4 145
28 Purmo Group C Buy 20 96 33 149
29 Wulff Group Reduce 39 93 18 150
30 CapMan Accumulate 67 47 36 150
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“Look, here are the world’s Top 20 companies”

image

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This is once again completely absurd; even if something like this were pushed through, no sane person would start replacing those pipes anyway.

If some municipal bureaucrat came along suggesting this, they’d have to be laughed out of the house. “Yeah, we just had gold-plated piping installed, no lead emissions here.”

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Thanks for Inderes’ new look in the stock comparison and company pages. The visibility of the share count development is an excellent addition. Thank you!

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Well look at that, Lepikkö is starting as a portfolio manager; the headline should tell the essentials: Jukka Lepikkö aloittaa salkunhoitajana – Suka-yhtiöt kertoo, miten valinta osui tunnettuun treidaajaan | Kauppalehti

“The total size of the investment portfolios under Lepikkö’s responsibility is approximately 190 million euros.”

“Suka received over 20 inquiries from interested candidates, from among whom Jukka Lepikkö was chosen. The selection emphasized a broad understanding and expertise in market operations, experience in utilizing diverse investment strategies, and the capability to operate at both an operational and strategic level,” Kari Hautanen tells Kauppalehti via email."

The Hautanens have a background in Tarjoustalo; they sold (merged) it to Tokmanni in 2005.

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Well then, a new gaming pod is out. I remember how I went for a run during the first gaming pod and the time passed quite pleasantly. I could take a longer run again tonight while listening to that. Then I notice the duration: 3h 16m :hot_face:

And that’s actually a good thing, you don’t really have to listen to it all in one go. :slight_smile:

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Congratulations to Lepikkö on the appointment!

But it seems the founder of Suka Companies didn’t know Russian when they chose a name like that :roll_eyes:

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The most important thing to know is whether Traders Club will still continue, @Jukka_Lepikko?

Congratulations on the new position!

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image

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