This looks like a promising case. I’m not familiar enough with it yet, but the company operates in several segments of the LNG/energy markets (production, vessels, etc.).
Opening a thread for this, as I cautiously think there’s enough upside potential and discussion to be had for a long time. However, if no discussion arises, let’s just let the thread slowly fade into oblivion
The latest analyst updates still predict nearly 100% upside (consensus). It’s worth noting that there are also nearly 20 analysts following it.
Professional J.F., who follows the company closely, considers the company’s operational performance to be good relative to its current valuation (it’s worth following this gentleman’s commentary if the company interests you):
As an addition to the analyst/fund presentation from February, this video explains the case and the reasons for the decline. Apparently, the large and complex entity at least confuses investor perceptions. I can confirm this for my part
I was researching this company at the beginning of the year. At the time, the biggest problem seemed to be the company’s liquidity. Development projects require a lot of cash flow and the company is already quite indebted. I’ll check when I get to my computer if I have any materials saved on this…
In addition, let’s just say that the company operates in a few too many fields for my taste (transportation, liquefaction, energy), and the ownership structures in the projects are quite complex. This makes it difficult for individuals to analyze and monitor the company.
Last week, there was good news related to this when Cameroon extended its contract to use Golar’s Hilli vessel. The stock started rising well after that:
Unfortunately, I couldn’t find those “cash flow statements” saved anywhere. I recall finding them in the SeekingAlpha comment section. It probably requires a premium subscription to read those articles and their comments.
Anyhow, I don’t think this stock should be considered risk-free. For example:
It’s tied to the cyclical commodity business (Natural Gas)
High project risk (project delays, cost overruns)
High contract risk (e.g., potential insolvency of the counterparty)
Golar’s biggest challenge is the shipping side; if they could divest it, the valuation would be based on different multiples than the very low ones of the tanker sector.
I’m in with a medium-sized position; once the oil market calms down a bit, then it will be a good time to get in.
Golarilla 9 USD barrier broken. It’ll be interesting to follow in the coming years to see if this becomes a tenbagger, even though my ownership is very modest.
Has anyone seen any “company-specific” news that would explain Golar’s recent struggles during these green days, or is it just general industry melancholy?
Hasn’t the entire shipping industry (as well as cruise lines, Wärtsilä, etc.) been quite melancholic, as the corona didn’t disappear for the summer, as hoped? And at least based on the headlines, the outlook isn’t necessarily completely rosy:
Golar LNG Q1: Decent Earnings But Problems May Be Ahead
An interesting company, and at least as interesting is its 1-year curve:
On paper, it seems like a very promising case, but the direction has been steadily declining for the last 10 years, so I was left with a strong lottery feeling. I should keep it in mind, as it would be nice to get involved with an LNG company.
The entire gas/tanker sector is taking a hit, that explains it. Although shipping is a small part of Golar, it affects the multipliers and the sector drags it down.
My slice of Golarion lives in a long-term portfolio. Mainly, I’m wondering if now would be a good time to buy more, or if the price/risk is still too high.
E: Couldn’t resist. A small taste more. I’m enjoying it now that I’ve switched brokers and the service fee for five slices is the same as what I paid for one purchase in the spring. Until the introductory offer ends, and I’ll “only” pay 2.5 times less than before!
I can’t say about that. I have 3 gas/tanker stocks, FRO, STNG, and GLNG, all in the red but I’m ready to buy more on dips and wait 1-2 years with these, longer for Golar.
