Operating profit from the enzyme business nearly doubled compared to the third quarter of the previous year. (NotebookLM)
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The share price rallied on the Q3 results, which certainly promise an improvement in the company’s trajectory. If I recall correctly, Genovis’s share price has a tendency to react sharply, only for the gains to inevitably fizzle out for the most part. As such, 2023-24 has been quite bleak; despite today’s uptick, the share price is -47% over the last 12 months.
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I wonder where the share price would be if Selecta Bioscience hadn’t terminated the Xork partnership earlier this year. If someone signs a similar deal for it, the share price will probably perk up quite well.
Redeye has scrutinized Genovis’s Q3 results and, in my opinion, quite thoroughly; they currently consider the company’s valuation to be somewhat unjustifiably low. They provide three valuation levels as before, with minor adjustments. “On account of the slightly revised forecasts we update our base case to SEK53 from SEK52. Bull- and bear case amounts to SEK104 (102) 24 (24).”
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Redeye has produced a report that discusses and analyzes approximately 10 of the best microcap companies. Genovis is also included, and the report provides a clear picture of the company’s history, current state, and prospects.
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Well, this is a bit spooky for a Friday evening; the company’s stock imitated a space rocket when, at the very last moment, the price was +21.8%. In the Norndet discussion, someone whispered that the company had issued a statement about a collaboration with a pharmaceutical company in the Big Pharma category. What makes the phenomenon peculiar is that there’s no new announcement on Genovis’s website.
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Someone wrote this on a Swedish forum:
"Update:
Genovis’ share price rose by 20% in after-hours trading on the Stockholm Stock Exchange on January 31, 2025, after the company issued a press release stating that they have initiated a strategic collaboration with the global pharmaceutical company Amgen. According to the press release, Genovis will supply its innovative enzyme technologies to enhance Amgen’s biotechnology product development, particularly in antibodies and protein-based drugs.
This collaboration is highly significant as it can provide Genovis with additional revenue streams and marketing, to which the market has reacted positively. Such a partnership is considered proof of the company’s technological strength and potential in global markets."
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No announcement from today (January 31, 2025) can be found on the company’s website.
That guy on the Swedish forum claims that chatGPT told about that collaboration between Genovis and Amgen. When I tried to find information myself, I also didn’t find anything. So it might be completely wrong information.
Interesting in any case. Nordnet’s trading statistics show that yesterday, at that peak price, just under 20,000 shares changed hands at timestamp 18:32:23 (in the form of about 20 transactions). The total daily volume was 102,000 shares. What could be behind such a phenomenon? Just blatant manipulation? And by what trick was it pulled off?
ChatGPT rumors immediately fell flat. Genovis -16%.
Artificial intelligence is quite a humbug in information dissemination. The more people ask it for financial advice, the muddier it gets.
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Q4
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Redeye analyzed the Q4 results, now that the stock valuation is about 28, the views are: Bear 24, Base 53 Bull 104
EDIT: those figures were old, here are the latest: We slightly lower our base case from SEK53 to SEK49, with our bull and bear cases at SEK100 (104) and SEK23 (24), respectively.
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Genovis also published its results:
And it went well, with record sales in enzymes. Revenue exceeded the analyst’s forecast by 13%, results roughly in line with expectations. A strengthened krona had a slight negative impact, but overall a very positive report, and the current quarter is also off to a good start.
According to SEB, also good: buy 30 → 32 SEK
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They should really get that Xork licensed somewhere. I haven’t heard of any breakthroughs in AAV gene therapies this year. But it’s not an abandoned area yet.
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When a well-performing company’s valuation is stuck in the lower leagues, the question arises when the big players will come and snatch a tasty morsel from the ecosystem. I had a discussion with Claude.ai about what kind of acquisition opportunities and ambitions Genovis evokes.
"## Estimated Buyer Priorities
Order of Probability:
1. Thermo Fisher (40% probability) - Largest and most active
2. Agilent (25% probability) - Strategic complementarity
3. Bio-Rad (20% probability) - Reagent focus
4. Danaher (10% probability) - Portfolio expansion
5. Others (5% probability) - More specialized players
*Overall, I estimate the probability of an acquisition being 60-70% within the next 12-24 months, especially if Genovis continues strong performance but its stock price remains low."
Highly probable for the following reasons:
1. Perfect strategic fit
- Genovis’ SmartEnzymes™ technology complements the portfolios of major players
- Growing importance of RNA technologies (Sequrna partnership)
- Enzymes for therapeutic applications under development
2. Financial attractiveness
- Low valuation (70% decline) makes the deal affordable
- Strong cash flow and profitability
- Growth of 21% in Q4/2024 - indicates healthy business
3. Market timing advantage
- Buyers can leverage Genovis’ technology in their own products
- Rapid market expansion (North America, Europe, Asia)
- Access to specialized customer relationships
4. Consolidation trend
As Leinco’s acquisition of Genovis’ antibody business Check out Genovis AB’s stock price (GENO-SE) in real time and Leinco’s acquisition of QED Biosciences Genovis AB (publ.) Stock Forecast: down to 27.555 SEK? - GENO Stock Price Prediction, Long-Term \u0026 Short-Term Share Revenue Prognosis with Smart Technical Analysis demonstrate, active consolidation is underway in the industry.*
As the bio-sector markets have clearly divided into winners and losers over the past three years, with companies focused on diabetes and obesity treatment dominating the winners, the operations of small developers, dependent on venture capital, are left behind.
What thoughts does becoming an acquisition target evoke? Calliditas Therapeutics was an exit that ended in a slight disappointment for my own portfolio (more could have been gained after a long hold). Does Genovis have the means for an independent future?
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It will be interesting to see in the future if Genovis has contributed to the development related to this enzyme
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