Maybe these new nuclear reactors will still be acquired…
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Fortum therefore has a number of pumped-hydro power plants on the drawing board, which would utilize electricity price fluctuations. This is probably an investment of at least hundreds of millions of euros in total. Furthermore, Kemijoki Oy (of whose hydropower shares Fortum owns over 60%) is planning the construction of pumped-hydro power plants. 3 new Fortum pumped-hydro power plants are being planned in Sweden, which has drawn criticism that citizens are not being listened to, etc.:
Fortum’s response was published today, and its main message was that the plans are still in their early stages, hearings have taken place and will continue, and that pumped-hydro power plants balance energy production.
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It remains to be seen how big a business this will become for Fortum:
”Fortum plans to nearly tenfold increase battery recycling capacity in Harjavalta”
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While waiting for Fortum’s Q2/2025 report, you can check this out. If the recommendations for Fortum’s stock in that analysis were to be summarized in one word, it would be HOLD.
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Anders Oldenburg took a strong stance on the Finnish State as a business partner.
“The Finnish state handled the problem in what I consider a very ugly and unethical way. The state granted Fortum an ‘emergency loan’ – which the company said it didn’t even need – in exchange for a one percent ownership stake in the company for free. I don’t want business partners for Phoebus who enrich themselves at the expense of other owners.”
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Did it concretely happen that the state, with its controlling power, practically forced Fortum into the aforementioned arrangement?
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Statkraft’s result significantly weakened from last year, even though the company produced a record amount of electricity. The reason is the decrease in electricity prices in the Nordic markets. Cost-cutting measures are expected, as well as the sale of non-core assets and the reduction of investment plans. For example, Statkraft has decided to divest from green hydrogen projects. The Norwegians intend to focus on their core businesses in the future, especially their hydropower. It will be interesting to see how this correlates with Fortum’s results.
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Vattenfall’s results seem to have been released a few days ago. It doesn’t seem to have been posted on the forum yet. This peer’s profitability also declined due to the downward trend in electricity prices, but hedging, successful trading, and distribution operations helped to improve the figures.
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More onshore wind projects with a €40M deal:
"Fortum has signed an agreement to acquire a development portfolio of renewable energy projects from German ABO Energy, a company specializing in renewable energy development projects and construction. The acquisition supports Fortum’s goal to prepare for future growth by developing ready-to-build renewable energy projects in the Nordics. The acquisition covers approximately 4.4 GW of onshore wind power development projects in various stages, located in Finland.
The debt-free purchase price is approximately 40 million euros and will be paid upon the closing of the transaction, estimated for the fourth quarter of 2025. The completion of the transaction is subject to the fulfillment of customary conditions. The acquisition also includes the possibility for project-specific additional purchase prices (earn-out), which will be paid if the projects proceed to an investment decision. The estimated total purchase price, including future project-specific additional purchase prices, is approximately 70 million euros. Currently, there are no investment commitments, and the first projects could reach ready-to-build status within a year.
One of Fortum’s strategic targets is to develop a portfolio of over 800 MW of ready-to-build onshore wind and solar power projects by the end of 2026. After the acquisition, Fortum will have approximately 8 GW of solar and onshore wind power projects under permitting in the Nordics, with additional projects in early development stages. Each investment decision depends on the electricity market situation and particularly on the development of industrial electricity demand."
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Updated view. 
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Fortum’s valuation is a complex matter; for example, A. Oldenburg wrote in the latest Seligson quarterly publication: ‘Fortum’s market value 14.5 bn, net debt 1.3 bn, gross value is 15.6 bn. In a normal year, it produces 21 TWh of hydropower, which is easy to value, as entire hydropower plants have been sold in recent years for 700-800 euros / MWh produced. The value of hydropower alone is thus 15-17 bn euros.’
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So if the value of hydropower alone were about 15 billion and there are about 89,270,000 Fortum shares, then the value of hydropower alone would be about €16.70 per share.
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The state owner’s footprint is alarming. That unnecessary financing arrangement was discriminatively targeted at only one owner with unreasonable terms. I calculated at the time that, considering the free share issue and the unreasonable 14% excess interest, the first year’s return on the loan for the Finnish state was around 44%!
Another blunder was made under Tuppurainen’s leadership when Uniper was lent money to manage the pricing crisis without collateral, and Swedish hydropower plants were not demanded as security for the loan.
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Vara has updated the forecasts https://vara-services.com/fortum/consensus-analystoverview/
Note from the news: “Maintaining rapid adjustability also requires a flow rate greater than the minimum flow. Due to this, hydropower has occasionally had to be run more than average, which has also contributed to lowering the lake’s surface level,” says Mikael Heikkilä, Fortum’s director responsible for regulation.
Regulation is how money is made!
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@Juha_Kinnunen preview for Friday, apparently there have been some changes in Inderes’s table template, as copying results in output like the one below: Fortum Q2’25 -ennakko: Heikko neljännes takana, mutta ilmassa myös piristymisen merkkejä - Inderes
Forecast Table Q2’24 Q2’25 Q2’25e Q2’25e Consensus 2025e
MEUR / EUR Comparison Actual Inderes Consensus Lowest Highest Inderes
Revenue 1255 1013 1015 870 - 1202 5018
Comparable EBITDA 326 230 217 176 - 235 1416
Comparable EBIT 233 147 137 101 - 157 1082
EPS (adj.) 0.20 0.12 0.11 0.08 - 0.13 0.96
Revenue growth % -8.2 % -19.3 % -19.1 % -31 % - -4.2 % -13.5 %
Comp. EBIT % 18.6 % 14.5 % 13.5 % 11.6 % - 13.0 % 21.6 %
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Maintenance outages, low water levels, seasonally weak period, etc. Operating profit is thin, but the achieved electricity price is certainly not the worst, and data center news keeps coming “almost every day”.
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Perhaps, given my history, I could make a small summary in the old style. Regarding my own sales, I can say it was too early. As a retired old man, I still don’t want to keep a large stake in the short-sellers’ playground.
Production volumes are a disaster, but the price achieved is excellent. The result is dismal, but slightly better than I thought. I believe that the upcoming dividend (approx. €0.70) will carry this through the next couple of lean years. However, if the stock market experiences a small plunge, the short boys will eat Fortum’s stock price alive.
Let’s hope for the best and fear the worst 
EDIT: The hedges also exceeded my expectations by a few euros. Could it be that the arrival of data centers is being anticipated by making long contracts already now, so as not to be left empty-handed? It’s good to remember that Fortum has made its billions over the years with prices around 30-35 £/MWh. 
EDIT2: The optimization premium remained in the table as a forecast. I couldn’t immediately find the figure for it in the reports. Apparently, the same amount of debt had accumulated as dividends were paid out.
EDIT3: I had suspected earlier that Fortum had forbidden Energiateollisuus (Energy Industry) from releasing statistics before the results are published. Today, June’s statistics were found on their website, which weren’t there yesterday. Previously, these were published a good couple of weeks after the turn of the month.
From these, it’s quite straightforward to estimate Fortum’s production. I have often discussed this in my previous posts.
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One would think that production volumes and the price achieved would correlate at least to some extent.
Since the hedges are sold per MWh unit and not as percentages, if the production volume remains small, then a larger share of Fortum’s production is sold at the hedging price. If Fortum were in the opposite situation where nuclear power plants were producing at full capacity and reservoirs were full, production volumes would be high, but it would be miserable as electricity would have to be pushed onto the market at any price.
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A short thread about Fortum on X:
https://x.com/linde_to/status/1956240762242232691?s=46
fortum results fall short of forecasts. Revenue €974M vs. Consensus €1015M. Comparable EBITDA €191M vs. Consensus €217M. Electricity price 
and production volumes .
The company clarifies that in 2025, the total production volume is expected to be clearly below normal levels.
A dividend of around €1.00 will likely come from there, as the balance sheet is, however, very strong. The state desperately needs money to cover the budget deficit. Where will it be taken from? From Fortum, of course, as always before.
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Don’t short sellers rather support the stock price when they close their positions?
If there were a bigger dip, just buy it if you are a dividend investor!
It’s interesting how Rauramo smiled about the “tailored agreements” made with data centers, which likely include a nice premium as there are simply no other providers.
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