Pekka Toveri reflects on Russia’s potential major offensive in the spring of 2023. Strategically extremely difficult and tactically likely to be in the style of “pushing mobilized troops toward Ukrainian lines until they run out of bullets,” because Putin’s political survival requires victories at any cost. We shall see whether it happens or not.
This was mentioned before, but Russia has apparently seriously moved its headquarters away from Kreminna to the next town further from the Ukrainian lines, namely Rubizhne. This event has always seemed to precede a withdrawal, and heavy fighting has been reported in the forests of Kreminna.
https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1607441610605842433
Meanwhile elsewhere, the Bakhmut front is holding its shape, at least for now. Since direct attacks haven’t succeeded, the Russians are trying to create a threat of encirclement. It feels like there’s constantly conflicting information coming out of Bakhmut, so it’s a bit of a toss-up — depending on the source — as to who is holding the city.
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1607439823131770881/photo/1
A question about the Kherson front as well. When Kherson was captured in November, there were surprising reports that Ukraine was trying to establish bridgeheads both on the peninsula and across the river on the other bank. I haven’t seen any news since then regarding what happened with those. Were the bridgeheads lost quietly, or were the attacks even carried out at all?
HS foreign correspondent Pekka Mykkänen has written an interesting piece on why Ukraine is a perfect partner for the United States. I would imagine that Ukraine will receive substantial support from the United States for a long time. No paywall.
UKRAINE’S brave defense and the support for it have provided the domestically divided United States with a sense of purpose that has been sought with little success throughout the entire period following the end of the Cold War. This could be sensed when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi delivered a speech to Congress last Wednesday.
The New York Times columnist David Brooks said he was struck by the unusually unanimous behavior of the members of Congress while observing how “Zelenskyi and the Ukrainians have reminded Americans of values and ideals that we used to admire in ourselves.”
A short Yle news report on how the Ukrainian government is planning a peace summit.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tells news agency AP that the Ukrainian government is planning a summit related to peace negotiations at the UN.
Here is a story from Helsingin Sanomat’s rolling updates: Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar says Russia aims to reach the border of the Donetsk region by the end of the year.
“There was some slight progress, but the enemy was pushed out. The enemy is currently trying to encircle the city, but they are not succeeding,” the deputy defense minister said according to the Kyiv Independent.
An elderly woman is not allowed to express her opinion on the war on a bus.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1607473776173752321?t=Iok_UFlUBN2Kw4xNhYodmw&s=19
Nazi mercenaries are complaining that artillery ammunition has run out in Bakhmut:
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1607355691551064064
And Russia confirms that in Engels, three pilots were hit and several others are also likely out of action (i.e., from firing cruise missiles towards Ukraine). Quite a bullseye again.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1607290086806425601
Heh heh. After the explosion at the Engels strategic bomber base last night, Russia has apparently been forced to move bombers to the aptly named and colored Ukrainka base, 6500 km away from Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1607436407127117833
According to rumors, as many as 5 planes exploded. But who knows how reliable that information is.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1607656198756790272
https://twitter.com/UkraineRussia2/status/1607670306327433216
At least the explosion seen in the videos was large enough that it couldn’t have been caused by just a drone explosion.
https://twitter.com/KYTKYTKYTKYTKYT/status/1607443198556934146
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1607186888829571072
According to estimates, Russia has a total of 55 of those Tu-95s (2020), so a fairly large percentage of them have been destroyed or are out of commission after these couple of attacks. And perhaps launching new operations from the east will be difficult?
Putin’s War of Mistakes, Zelensky’s (and Biden’s) War of Exceeding Expectations
Here is a good article on the course of the war for those who have followed the forum less.
It seems to be in a fairly stable situation, and both sides control their own halves regarding the Kinburn Strait. Here is a short clip from some sector on the Ukrainian side. Crossing over from there seems to be too demanding for Ukrainian troops/resources. Russia has also reinforced/mined that area and they use it for drone attacks/bombing of Ukrainian territory.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1605953818524454912?t=mZeuKbgrJIYZWsqOkv-_4g&s=19
Here is Toveri’s reflection on a possible Russian offensive in 2023:
Before Christmas, there was much discussion about a potential new Russian offensive next year. Even the Ukrainian leadership commented on and warned about this possibility.
– Russia is currently on the defensive, building fortifications and pushing reservists to occupy these positions, writes Major General (Ret.) Pekka Toveri, who served as the Chief of Intelligence of the General Staff, on Twitter.
– Russia’s local counterattacks, especially in Bakhmut, continue, but they are mostly a senseless slaughter of their own troops with minimal results. For political reasons, (Vladimir) Putin likely wants to move from defense to offense as soon as Russia has reinforced its troops.
According to Toveri, defending against Ukraine is humiliating for Putin and erodes domestic support for the war. Additionally, there is the threat of new Ukrainian offensives.
Thanks and greetings from the moderation! 
There are many good links, tweets, and great posts in the thread - for the most part, things have gone very well.
Just as a general reminder to everyone, as there has been some justified feedback and flagging.
- “One-liners” without any information are often somewhat unnecessary, so those could be skipped, as thousands of people follow this thread and such comments usually don’t add value.
- There are smart writers here who write excellently. That’s why I’m reminding you that this is Inderes’ high-quality discussion forum, so let’s keep the language civil and avoid unnecessarily brutal expressions if they aren’t needed.
- You can discuss and debate here, but specifically in a professional manner; trolling is not appropriate for this thread either.
- Not all messages always fit this thread, so some messages might belong in these places:
More casual messages: Inderesin kahvihuone (Osa 5) - Sijoittaminen - Inderes forum
Finland and NATO discussion usually fits best here: https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/suomi-natoon-nato-ketju/
Political matters usually belong here: https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/politiikkanurkkaus/
Energy topics mostly belong here: https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/euroopan-energiakriisi/
There hasn’t been anything major lately, but there is a steady amount of justified feedback and flagging, so there is room for improvement, though I must say there is still more to praise than to criticize. 
For most of us, this is the best channel to follow this unfortunate war, and we should remember that we are on the same side—and it’s great how we’ve donated to fundraisers, etc., which is a wonderful thing.
So, big thanks to all readers and especially to the active information sharers!
HS (free to read) story about these dead Russian businessmen:
Pavel Antov, a 65-year-old representative of the Vladimir region’s local parliament, died after falling from his hotel window on Christmas Day.
A couple of days before Antov’s death, his 61-year-old traveling companion, businessman Vladimir Bydanov, died after consuming wine. The Indian channel NDTV also reports on the matter.
The incidents occurred in the eastern state of Odisha in India, where the men were on vacation. The travel group consisted of four people in total.
RUSSIA’S Consul General in Kolkata, Aleksei Idamkin, says that the Odisha police and the Russian Consulate General do not consider the deaths of the two Russians suspicious. According to Idamkin, the investigation into Bydanov’s cause of death has already been completed and his body has been cremated, reports the Russian publication Meduza.
According to the Indian police, Antov’s fall may have been a suicide, reports NDTV. Meanwhile, the cause of death for his traveling companion has been reported as a heart attack. Bydanov was found unconscious in his hotel room surrounded by empty wine bottles on December 22.
Performance Review, Russian Style
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1607085505291898882?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1607085505291898882|twgr^e11f66f58a8fd05cf99d1bfa55c7a70a048e0ca6|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.verkkouutiset.fi%2Fa%2Fvenalaisjoukkojen-komentaja-raivostuu-pahoinpitelee-sotilaita-videolla%2F
Russia is apparently bringing a lot of troops and equipment to Kreminna. No paywall.
Kreminna is located in the western parts of the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine, northwest of the Lysychansk area. Russia has occupied the city since the spring. If Russia were to lose the city, its ability to supply its troops in the key city of Severodonetsk would be significantly weakened.
The energy shortage in Ukraine is not as severe as before, because production has been successfully increased. No paywall.
Russia has moved several of its military aircraft further away from the Engels airfield. The reason has been, at least in part, drone strikes carried out by Ukraine. No paywall.
RUSSIA has moved its military aircraft away from the Engels military base near Saratov after the Boxing Day strike, says Ukrainian Air Force commander Yurii Ihnat according to the Hromadske television channel.
A slightly weightier piece from Yuval Noah Harari, I don’t know if it’s been linked here before. That insert is a bit clickbaity and misleading; the text discusses Putler’s invasion in a historical context from the perspective of the world’s prevailing value system. Or well, read it for yourselves. Deeper, high-quality stuff, though, as you can only expect from Harari.
This article features thoughts from the Ukrainian Defense Minister. No paywall.
“A broad range of authoritarian regimes are following events in Ukraine closely and will see any Russian victory as a green light for their own aggressions. There is also a risk that other regions in the world will prove less capable of defending themselves than Ukraine,” Reznikov writes.
According to Reznikov, this grim scenario is “both predictable and entirely avoidable.”
“If the international community provides sufficient military aid, we have every reason to believe that Ukraine will achieve victory over Russia in 2023. It would send a strong message to all dictators and expansionists that the use of force is not a viable tool of foreign policy.”
https://twitter.com/11Knuk123/status/1607701177679896576
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1607732164438769670
(this also shows what happens if there is no micro-level airspace control)