While waiting for Tuesday’s analyst call, here is an interview with Enento’s CFO in Tilisanomat for you to read 
: Tilisanomat.fi Have a great weekend!
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@Roni_Peuranheimo When will the pre-silent period analyst call be available for everyone to listen to?
The company posts it on their website, so I can’t promise a specific time on their behalf 
But it has typically been released quite quickly, and I’d guess it will be available within a few days.
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You can always speculate a bit! Indeed, the stocks of American peers have performed well lately. When you compare Enento to these giants, Enento seems like a mere snack with its market cap of a few hundred million compared to these big players. Time will tell.
By the way, it will be really interesting to see the updated list of the largest shareholders next week. This is because large block trades have been made with Enento shares in recent days. Based on my own observations, I noticed blocks of 67,000 and 80,000 shares made last Friday, as well as trades of 150,900 and 23,500 shares today at 20 euros per share. NRD was the broker in all of these.
Otava started buying again last month after a break of over six months, and I am already irresponsibly speculating that Otava is the buyer behind these recent block trades as well. The fact that Otava returned to the buy side in August gives, in my opinion, a positive signal that the company’s outlook is becoming more convincing and clearer. If Otava were revealed to be the buyer of the aforementioned blocks, it would become almost the largest owner, surpassing Mandatum. Well, let’s wait for next week’s list and see then.
I bought a bit more myself since I got them for under 20 euros.
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For the American giants (Equifax, Transunion), gaining access to the Nordic markets would surely be an excellent addition. Many private equity firms might also be interested in acquiring a growth company with strong cash flow and developing it further on their own. Enento is an ideal target specifically for serial consolidation, offering synergies with many data companies, and the premium could be attractive for shareholders as well.
This case looks solid, even if a takeover bid doesn’t materialize. Today, the Riksbank cut interest rates, which I believe will play directly into Enento’s hands—especially since the krona has slightly strengthened against many other currencies! The overall comments were also very dovish, and we might even see a single 50-basis-point rate cut. That, if anything, would boost the purchasing power of the Swedish economy, accelerate growth investments, and once again increase lending volumes and general transaction activity (real estate transactions, M&A, contractor liability reports, etc.). I’m looking forward to hearing what the investor call has in store for us.
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Hi everyone,
My name is Henrik Soras and I started at Enento in August as the new Director of IR and Strategy. I am also an active retail investor myself, and Inderes, including the forum, has been familiar to me over the years. It’s great to see active discussion about Enento here.
If you have any questions about Enento as an investment, feel free to post them in this thread and I will answer to the best of my ability. 
Below is also a link to the pre-silent period analyst call (in English) held on 24 September:
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Thanks for the link. My own thoughts on the call were that management’s comments were still surprisingly pessimistic. No concrete positive changes are visible in the company’s operating environment yet, and regulation will likely continue to cause headaches even though the worst-case scenario from Sweden didn’t materialize; there are also some delays in price increases. Additionally, no major growth spurts from new products and services should be expected for quite some time. In summary, the call left a rather pessimistic feeling overall, even though one would imagine that the general economic outlook would boost business in the future, driven by falling interest rates.
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I agree, there were no fireworks from the management’s comments and the outlook in general. Norway was an absolute highlight, especially since the wording used was “particularly strong.” Hopefully, Enento will invest more in the Norwegian direction as well, as the drive and macro environment are on solid footing. It would have also been nice to hear comments about Denmark, even though the business is quite small—in the range of just over a million euros annually—but all the more reason it would have been interesting to hear how the story is progressing. Let’s also highlight the strength of Finland’s Business Insight as a positive, which is expected to be flat or positive.
However, there were more negative aspects, or at least they affect a large revenue segment. Particularly the interest rate cap in Sweden, which is apparently coming into effect and will squeeze payday loan companies out of the market; also, the granting of junk loans will certainly no longer be supported, regardless of the macro situation. Hopefully, tightening regulation will, on the other hand, increase customers’ interest in checking counterparty risks, as selling financing is no longer as profitable as it might be in a free environment, and potential credit losses would have a stronger impact on profitability when returns are more limited.
Falling interest rates will, however, significantly increase credit demand, but this will come into play with a lag. I believe we will see substantial volume growth in Q1-Q2. Many consumers are likely still waiting for rates to drop before heading into real estate transactions, for example, to gain better negotiating positions. An interesting situation all in all. As they say, waiting feels like a long time Let’s just hope the environment becomes more favorable, the Q4 marketing campaigns add new customer verticals in Sweden as well, and the growth story progresses!
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Since Otava has been diligently buying Enento and has also bought quite a lot of Alma Media, it certainly piqued curiosity and the question “What now?”. Especially since on Yle’s Pörssipäivä podcast a couple of days ago, investor Tomi Lahti stated that there is talk behind the scenes, and perhaps even action, regarding a merger between Enento and Alma Media. Do the forum members have any insights and/or opinions on what is to be expected in the bigger picture?
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Otava certainly has a very significant position acquired in Enento. Tomorrow it will be revealed if Otava has been shopping again, as the lists of the largest shareholders are updated once more.
A merger itself might not be the most “productive” in terms of synergies, but it is by no means bad. Alma Media has developed its own Insights service very skillfully over the last few years and offers many products similar to Enento’s, as well as some different ones. Also, on the news production side, Enento’s massive data could provide endless news stories for Kauppalehti and Arvopaperi. Alma Media’s sales channels are also very good, and internationalization is progressing strongly. For example, direct real estate data and credit information services through Etuovi could work as a new service. Similarly, providing credit information through Nettiauto (if credit-based agreements are made there at all, purely speculation), etc.
I would find it more likely that Otava lets Enento operate as an independent company and develops cooperation between the two, but if anyone were to execute a merger, I believe it would be a large international private equity firm or a credit information or debt collection company where the synergies would align perfectly and the purchase price could be very fair. Otava would likely not be paying a very high premium for Enento.
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Otava has added 563,000 shares and become the largest shareholder. Some moves are surely coming in the next few weeks/months 
Mandatum will also divest its entire holding at some point, but when and to whom. I don’t think Otava is buying that block.
The sale of 80,000 shares by Proprius Partners is a big surprise.
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In my opinion, Otava becoming the largest owner is a positive thing. Otava seems to have seen a buying opportunity here and apparently restarted share purchases immediately once the upcoming legislative changes in the Swedish market were clarified, and it turned out that the reforms are not dramatic for Enento’s position. Time will tell how active a role Otava takes in Enento and whether this involves larger corporate or ownership restructurings.
I don’t really believe the rumors about a merger between Alma and Enento. If I recall correctly, Alma Media has publicly announced a budget of 150 million for acquisitions, and Otava likely still has enough chips to continue cornering Enento. A third party might still be needed for a possible bidding consortium if we speculate that Alma Media, as a larger company, would be the playmaker in a possible merger buying Enento together with Otava. Of course, a merger carried out as a share swap would be a different matter, but I cannot evaluate that or its feasibility more specifically.
Regarding Mandatum’s stake and their goals for Enento, nothing has changed. Mandatum’s CEO confirmed what was previously stated in a recent Investor’s Week interview (Mandatum sijoituskohteena | Pörssisijoittajan viikko 9.9.2024 - Inderes) along these lines: Enento is managed with value creation in mind, and they are ready to sell the shares at a price that creates shareholder value and is, in their opinion, good.
It is, of course, impossible to guess what that good price would be, but one might have to wait a while longer for the stock price rise that materializes purely through the recovery of the economic cycle and Enento’s business, and thus a desirable time to sell. I believe Mandatum’s stake is also sellable to Otava as a block once the price is right. Some corporate or ownership restructuring carried out with a premium would, of course, offer Mandatum a faster opportunity to exit their shares.
In my view, Enento’s share still offers an interesting opportunity. Interest rates are falling, and a better economic cycle with growing credit volumes will inevitably arrive at some point. Furthermore, potential corporate and ownership restructurings offer, at best, a small “extra option” for rapid value increases even in the short term.
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It’s really frustrating to see the management’s current passivity. The company is in an excellent position if it wants to continue expanding abroad and developing operations in its current markets as well. Finland and Sweden are fairly mature markets, now driven only by the industry’s normal growth rate and megatrends. They bring good growth too, but Denmark is still really undersized, and Norway is on the mature side as well, unless they move into credit information. The company has an excellent cash flow profile and would thus have the perfect means to expand, perhaps to the Baltics and Central Europe, but it seems there is a lack of courage. I think the management should take a leaf out of Musti Group’s book, where they aren’t afraid of bold moves, as seen in the latest acquisition. If I were in charge, I would direct 30% of the fiscal year’s profits to share buybacks and the remaining 70% to acquisitions. Now, if ever, is the time to be greedy and try to eat up and consolidate a fragmented market. Someone else will make those moves, and I fear it will be the BIG3 companies (TransUnion, Equifax, Experian) who will soon own the entire market.
Finally, the eternal cliché: “most acquisitions fail.” Well, in this market, I believe growth through acquisitions is a prerequisite. Visma grew from a consortium of 3 small companies by acquiring over 150 companies in the 2010s, and now has a market value of 19 billion euros. I understand that in the car trade, organic growth is worth its weight in gold, but you would expect a profit machine like Enento to dare to take more risk; otherwise, the company might turn into a laggard (mörnijä). I’m still firmly on board, of course, but I just had to voice this frustration 
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Below are Roni’s thoughts in the form of a company report, as Enento reports its Q3 results on Oct 29.
Enento reports its Q3 results on Tuesday, Oct 29, at approximately 12:00. There has not yet been a significant recovery in the demand environment, and we expect both revenue and earnings to have weakened moderately from the comparison period. There are mixed signals in the company’s outlook. Falling interest rates support the outlook, and a potentially harmful public credit register is currently not expected to be implemented in Sweden. On the other hand, other measures proposed in Sweden to curb indebtedness (e.g., a tighter interest rate cap) will likely slow down the market recovery next year.
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Mandatum appears to be finalizing the sale of Saxo Bank. Do you think Mandatum has been looking for a buyer for their Enento stake at the same time, or have they been looking for buyers for both Saxo and Enento simultaneously?
Once the Saxo exit is completed, one could assume that moves will start to be made regarding Enento. Will Otava buy the entire stake?
Personally, I’m hoping for a buyout offer of €30+ for the entire company.
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Mandatum has communicated from the very beginning that its goal is to sell its Enento stake, as well as its Saxo stake. So, this likely hasn’t changed in any way. But it bothers me that there hasn’t been the same level of communication or public activity regarding it as there has been with the Saxo ownership. In its Q2 half-year report, Mandatum stated that Saxo Bank had hired an external advisor to explore various strategic alternatives. Now it seems like the sale could be finalized for Saxo. I expect the same regarding Enento. Of course, all sorts of things can (and probably do) happen in the background without any public disclosure.
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Hi all,
We published our Q3 results today.
The interim report, presentation, and webcast recording can be found on our investor pages: Sijoittajat - Enento
Roni’s interview with our CEO Jeanette has also been published on Inderes’ website: Enento Q3’24: Kuluttajaluottamus yhä alhaalla (eng.) - Inderes
Best regards,
Henrik / Enento
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Fresh analysis available. “We reiterate our target price of EUR 19.0 and our reduce recommendation.”
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Block trades keep popping up in Enento. Yesterday, 30,000 shares changed hands at once, and today first 10,000 shares and then 50,000. Who’s buying, who’s selling
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We’ll see soon enough when the shareholder lists are updated, but I anticipate that Otava and possibly also the American investment firm Long Path Partners have continued their purchases following their earlier buying this autumn.
Browsing through old flagging notifications reveals that Long Path Partners became an Enento shareholder in the spring of 2022 with a stake of about five percent. Now in September, after a couple of years of silence, they bought just under 400k more shares. Long Path Partners is remembered as a previous owner of, among others, Basware, which they then took private together with a consortium.
Even though the consumer credit market isn’t showing any real signs of recovery yet, it’s a positive and confidence-boosting signal to me that the stock seems to be very attractive to two major shareholders at these levels.
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