Picked up from the new Inderes video: “And perhaps another challenge related to this dynamics is that at the end of the fiscal year, inventory and working capital are at their lowest levels. Then the company should start investing in that inventory again, and in my opinion, that’s where the problem arises: if they try to finance the next season’s inventory while net debt/EBITDA is around the five level—where does the money come from, where?”
Last year, from Q3 to Q4, the cash flow generated was €10.9 million (which, by the way, is larger than the current market cap) and net debt was successfully reduced by €9 million at the same time. In 2024, the cash flow from Q3 → Q4 was €10.8 million.
And back then, there wasn’t even a focus on optimizing inventory and cash flow, which is now one of the new management’s top priorities.
If Duell gets even close to last year’s or the year before’s figures, net debt after Q4 will be in the range of ~€10 million, and you are honestly asking where the money for the winter season inventory will come from and if additional financing is needed?
You aren’t even taking into account—as is well known—that last winter season’s sales stalled, leaving inventory levels unnecessarily high → those same goods can be sold next winter → less capital is needed for inventory purchases.
The logic is completely missing from the analysis, though otherwise, it’s a good discussion.
EDIT: In my 10-year investment career, I don’t recall a single case where a company is generating cash flow close to its market cap in just 6 months, and people are seriously discussing a “tight balance sheet position.”
Duell’s challenging situation is reflected in the collapsed share price. The turnaround is still pending and there is little appetite to jump on board yet, although if realized, the leveraged balance sheet position emphasizes the stock’s juicy return potential. Analyst Tommi Saarinen shares his thoughts on the company.
Topics:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:15) Disappointment after disappointment
(04:34) Market situation and competitiveness
(05:49) The situation in France
(08:44) Obstacles on the road to a turnaround
(11:37) Raising forecasts
(13:45) Sustainability of the balance sheet position
(17:27) If the turnaround materializes…
Maybe the chemistry just wasn’t there with the new CEO. Who even remembers the Nokia executives that Hotard replaced anymore?
Elisa Industriq Finland has granted the 2026 Huippuvarasto® (Top Warehouse) recognition to Duell. This annual recognition is awarded to companies that act as pioneers in the development of intralogistics and demonstrate an exceptional ability to scale their operations under changing conditions.
The centralization of Finnish logistics operations to Mustasaari has enabled rapid scaling of operations. During the early part of 2026, the number of order lines picked daily has increased by approximately 50% compared to before. On the busiest days, the logistics department ships over 3,000 lines to customers at its peak.
I wonder if dynamic storage locations just mean that seasonal junk is kept closer to the shipping area?
Decided to buy some shares myself. I needed a little excitement in my life. The buys were hard to time, but selling should be easy. As soon as Ämmälä sells, I’m dumping the stock
In 2024, the cash flow from Q3 → Q4 was €10.8 million.
