I only just now carefully read through @Juha_Kinnunen’s good extensive report, at least its Defense & Security section. One question came to mind.
In the section concerning Sweden, it is stated that the country is likely primarily interested in ToughSDR, as Finland is an exception in Europe (using both the TAC WIN backbone network and ToughSDR radios). Revenue growth from TAC WIN has indeed been assumed to be quite modest compared to the growth of ToughSDR.
However, Austria, a significant customer, has started with TAC WIN, and ToughSDR orders are still awaited. TAC WIN was also delivered to Croatia first, and apparently, Estonia is also receiving a comprehensive delivery including the backbone network.
According to the report, “the mainstream solution is still to create connectivity through radios, even though this is clearly a more vulnerable solution than an actual backbone network.” Could it be, however, that if generals get their voices heard in procurement decisions and it is decided elsewhere to also acquire a backbone network, the forecasts for these could be significantly exceeded?
This is, of course, possible. I believe that, at least in the long run, the requirements for these will also rise, and as a result, “total solutions” will become more common. This would obviously be a very good thing for Bittium, as in my view, the company’s strongest competitive advantage is when they provide both the trunk network and SDR radios. I still wouldn’t call those forecasts modest by any means; there is already a lot of upside already baked into them. The competitive landscape may also change along the way.
Air defense systems are mentioned in the extensive report as a potential new application area: “Weapon systems (air defense) also offer an interesting opportunity, for which Bittium’s products (TAC WIN and potentially Tough SDR) seem to be well-suited. In weapon systems, Bittium’s customers are, according to our understanding, suppliers of air defense systems. In Europe, air defense systems are manufactured by companies such as Rheinmetall (Germany), Saab (Sweden), and MBDA (backed by Airbus, BAE Systems, and Leonardo). Bittium does not disclose the names of its customers, but they are more likely to come from Europe due to required certifications and export licenses. BAE cooperation could be a relevant factor here as well, and also enables a broader cooperation between the companies. However, no large-scale orders related to air defense have been announced so far.”