Warning: this post is pure speculation and irresponsible doom-mongering. I don’t actually have any idea what the most likely outcome will be. It could go well or very badly
I can’t say anything more specific regarding the need for cash or possible share issues, but I personally consider the Hefei and China business operations to be the greatest risk. There are €7.5 million in receivables from Hefei, against which there is a pledge of 1.5 million B-shares (value approx. €4.5 million).
The matter is further complicated by the fact that Hefei is Biohit’s second-largest owner (over 20% of shares and votes) and, additionally, China is Biohit’s most important market (Asia accounted for nearly half of the revenue in 2025), the distribution of which is handled by Hefei.
One can then wonder what happens if Hefei, for one reason or another, gets into financial difficulties and is at risk of total collapse. Or what if Hefei is nationalized in the name of China’s public health The receivables would go unpaid, the pledge could be liquidated, but at what price if the distributor for the most important market collapses? In that case, would Hefei also sell the rest of its holdings at a fire-sale price to the other major owner?
Quite many other things could also go wrong related to this. The problem and risk simply culminate in the fact that, from the outside, a private investor has no way of assessing the probabilities of these options.