Applovin - Moonshot or bust?

Sijoittaja-alokas · April 4, 2025, 9:00pm

AppLovin Corporation is a US-based mobile technology company that provides platforms for app developers for marketing, analytics, and ad monetization. In 2025, however, the company announced it would divest its game development operations and focus on its advertising business. AppLovin was listed on Nasdaq in 2021.

The company thus offers a software-based platform for content creators and advertisers for global marketing and monetization. The company operates in two business areas: advertising and applications. Its products include, among others, the AppDiscovery advertising platform, MAX auction technology, Adjust analytics tool, and Wurl, a CTV platform for streaming content distribution and advertising.

In addition, the company offers SparkLabs optimization service and AppLovin Exchange ad auction. AppLovin also develops free-to-play games and serves both large and independent developers, advertisers, and mobile industry players.

Investor’s thoughts

AppLovin has rapidly grown into a leading player in mobile advertising technology. The company’s AI-powered Axon platform and solutions, such as MAX and AppDiscovery, provide advertisers with effective tools for targeting and revenue optimization. A strong financial position and interest in strategic expansions, such as the potential acquisition of TikTok, demonstrate, in investors’ opinion, genuine ambition and the ability to pursue market leadership even outside of games.

On the other hand, the company has recently been targeted by several short-sellers, who accuse its advertising technology of violating regulations and misusing user data. As a result, the stock has fallen significantly. These allegations could undermine confidence in the company’s ethics and sustainability, even though management has denied the claims and launched an investigation.

AppLovin has high-caliber technology, growth potential, and ambition, but then these elevated reputational and regulatory risks come to mind. Maintaining transparency and trust is now really important for the company, but the enthusiasm of short-sellers and these certain ambiguities do raise doubts.

2024/Q4 and Year 2024

Metric	Value
P/E Ratio	45.84
ROA	28.1 %
ROE	134.4 %
Gross Margin	75.2 %
Price/Book	81.72
EBITDA	2.32 bn USD
EV/EBITDA	39.55
Market Cap	74.7 bn USD
Revenue	4.71 bn USD
EPS (Earnings Per Share)	4.68

Inspirations for this thread:

Jackfin’s interview

And @Juha_Salminen

https://x.com/Ptjuhis/status/1908175058368958956

Sijoittaja-alokas · May 7, 2025, 8:26pm

Yhtiö kertoi tuloksensa parantuneen ja liikevaihdon kasvaneen ekalla kvartaalilla

Applovin ilmoitti tehneensä sitovan sopimuksen myydä mobiilipeliliiketoimintansa jollekin yksityiselle yhtiölle. Vastikkeena se saa käteismaksun sekä merkittävän omistusosuuden ostavasta yhtiöstä. Kaupan odotetaan toteutuvan vuoden toisen neljänneksen aikana viranomaishyväksyntöjen ja muiden ehtojen täytyttyä.

AppLovinin mainosliiketoiminta kasvoi merkittävästi vuoden ensimmäisellä neljänneksellä ja yhtiö saavutti korkeat marginaalitkin mainosalustansa vahvuuden ansiosta.

Peliliiketoiminnan lasku jatkui, mutta sen tulos parani hieman. Yhtiö jatkaa strategista muutostaan kohti puhtaasti markkinointi- ja mainosteknologiayhtiötä. Vahva kassavirta mahdollisti mittavan omien osakkeiden takaisinoston, mikä osoittanee luottamusta tulevaan kasvuun.

https://x.com/earnings_guy/status/1920209893774000278

Yhtiön omat materiaalit

Sijoittaja-alokas · August 6, 2025, 8:15pm

AppLovin reports strong growth in the second quarter; revenue rose 77 percent and net income a whopping 156 percent from a year ago.

The company sold its app business to Tripledot Studios for $400 million and is now fully focused on advertising.

The company’s profitability is in good shape; for example, adjusted EBITDA almost doubled, and it has over a billion dollars in cash. The future outlook is reportedly promising, as more growth and good margins are expected for Q3.

https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/1953186585803145404

Company’s own materials

Sijoittaja-alokas · September 5, 2025, 10:20pm

AppLovin secured a spot in the S&P 500 index alongside Robinhood. The company’s stock price jumped after the news, and investors are now even more interested in the company’s performance and operations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/applovin-robinhood-sp-500.html

Gigiman · September 6, 2025, 6:25am

Applovin’s coffers are bulging, and history shows they have also been reasonably active in the M&A market. They have divested from game development business and are focusing on adtech. In my opinion, it’s a matter of time until Applovin might turn its attention to a Verve buy-out. Wild speculation.

Sijoittaja-alokas · September 15, 2025, 8:23pm

Below are someone’s takeaways from AppLovin management’s chatter, presented in tweet format.

AppLovin’s management emphasized strong growth and a broad advertiser base, especially in the gaming industry, at the conference. The company has thousands of customers, and a new “recommendation model,” not yet widely launched, offers significant added value.

The goal is 20–30 percent annual growth, aided by AI-driven improvements and expansion into e-commerce. Investments are directed towards data centers, GPUs, and share buybacks, for which over $5.5 billion has been spent.

The company continues to expect an 80–85 percent EBITDA margin. Generative AI is seen as a significant competitive advantage in advertising, and additionally, in October, the self-service platform is planned to be expanded to international customers.

https://x.com/The_StockDoc/status/1965841267008668130

Sijoittaja-alokas · September 23, 2025, 4:37pm

Oppenheimer raised AppLovin’s target price to $740, justifying its assessment with stronger prospects in non-gaming advertising and long-term growth drivers.

According to the company, revenue could rise to $8.6 billion by 2027, and near-term demand also appears to be picking up, especially towards the upcoming holiday season. New customer acquisitions and user interface updates also support the company’s growth.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/applovin-target-lifted-by-240-at-oppenheimer-on-nongaming-advertising-growth-4251755

Sijoittaja-alokas · September 24, 2025, 9:27pm

Applovin feels the pace picking up…

and in addition to revenue, ROIC is also growing.

https://x.com/QualityInvest5/status/1970705399767539994*

ROIC:

Sijoittaja-alokas · October 7, 2025, 5:23am

I’m posting this same message here too (Similar in the Dismay thread)

Applovin plunged and the tweeter engaged in self-irony, though of course someone serious had to come and comment too.

https://x.com/NickSchmidt_/status/1975291885888676053

Applovin’s stock price dropped, as I understand it, because authorities began investigating claims that Applovin had used some unauthorized tracking methods in its advertising, based on several reports.

https://x.com/DaleAmericaQQQ/status/1975292030617329820

Tokarczuk · October 7, 2025, 6:14am

These news items were already featured in February-March, nothing new. Now, the re-planting of the news by short-selling firms conveniently timed 20 minutes before the stock market closed, causing all stop-losses to trigger, and no responses could be sent in time.

Nothing new. Investors naturally hate uncertainty, which such news temporarily creates. Some sell their shares in a panic because of it, and that’s what short sellers aim for, as that’s how they make their living. Google and Meta have been subject to numerous similar investigations (on the topic of “cookie collection practices”) over the years, and it might be worth looking at the long-term development of their stocks. If your investment horizon is a day, or a week, then you’re probably happy or restless if you owned/didn’t own Applovin yesterday. Because of news like this, I don’t use stop-losses; good stocks would disappear in a second. For me, the plan is still to sell Applovin when its price is around 750 dollars, and my target is the first half of next year.

But everyone has their own investment strategy and time horizon - and that’s good. The most important thing in the long run would probably be that an investor’s purchases are not mostly copycat purchases without familiarizing themselves with the companies, and sales are not panic sales. With this combination, investment assets decrease, rather than increase.

Tokarczuk · October 7, 2025, 6:45am

For those interested, here are Applovin CEO Adam Foroughi’s posts from February and March, when this very same thing was discussed:

Sijoittaja-alokas · November 5, 2025, 9:44pm

AppLovin is performing strongly. Revenue and earnings grew significantly better than expected, and the advertising platform, in particular, boosted the figures. Profitability remained high, and operations were apparently well-managed, with no major surprises.

The company expects further growth for the rest of the year and trusts its own performance. Margins should remain strong, and management’s communication did not reflect any particular caution – rather, management looked to the future.

Money was flowing, and it is used, among other things, for share buybacks. At the same time, services are being developed further, targeting new growth areas or something similar.

https://x.com/Earnings_Time/status/1986183215179063782

Company’s own materials

Sijoittaja-alokas · November 6, 2025, 1:07am

Let’s put these here too

Beautiful number visualizations:

https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1986207268925501821

Growing and growing

https://x.com/fiscal_ai/status/1986190552732475577