In Rauli’s DCF model, Anora’s share value of 3.5 eur is burdened by the amount of sold receivables, 164 million eur as of Q4/25. The idea is likely that “in reality” Anora should finance this amount by taking on more debt. Based on Rauli’s debt-free value DCF of 532 million eur and without this adjustment, considering the fluctuation of the last four quarters, the share value is approximately 5.2 eur. The adjustment related to sold receivables in the model thus lowers the value by approximately 1.6 euros per share. If the accepted PE is 10, this corresponds to an earnings impact of 0.16 eur, and with a share count of approximately 67.6 million, a financing cost of approximately 10.816 million eur, due to the assumed additional debt. A cost of 10.816 million eur vs. assumed additional debt of 164 million eur again corresponds to a financing cost of approximately 6.6%, whereas the company’s average interest rate on its loan portfolio is currently approximately 3.9%. However, if the amount of sold receivables were financed at the current interest rate, the earnings impact per share would be approximately 0.066 eur lower, and with a PE ratio of 10, the DCF value of the share in the model would be approximately 0.66 euros higher, i.e., 3.5+0.66=4.16 eur. It would thus appear that adjusting the DCF value by simply deducting the value of sold receivables as such is a rather harsh measure, even if some kind of adjustment were deemed necessary. As a check, Rauli’s ROE 2025: 5.1% and 2026: 6.4% vs. OPO’s required rate of return 8.4% times OPO, 2025: 5.97 and 2026: 6.14, result 2025: 3.62 and 2026: 4.55, average 4.1 eur. Where does the reasoning above go wrong, if/when it does?
Alko’s April figures came out today, and Norway’s Vinmonopolet also reported theirs. Due to Easter, April’s development was good, so it’s worth looking mainly at the figures for the entire beginning of the year. In Norway, the decline in the beginning of the year is 4-5%, and in Finland, for both wines and spirits, it’s 10-15%. As stated, this reflects the transfer of 8% wines to grocery stores. However, at least for Norway and Finland, it seems that the market is declining, and not at the level Anora expected last year (this is an assumption for the entire year generally in Anora’s markets). Comparison points will certainly ease towards the end of the year, so even with the current demand level, those negatives will soften when looking at the full-year figures.
Anora also tried to highlight in connection with its Q1 results that they have much more sales than just the monopoly markets, and especially focusing solely on Finland and Norway might give an overly negative picture, as the largest monopoly market, Sweden, is performing better (but does not report monthly figures publicly).
I think this article by @Antti_Leinonen about alcohol companies might be of interest in this Anora thread. 
Morningstar analysts believe that a large part of the reasons behind the current weakness will dissipate over time. According to Morningstar, companies with a broad product portfolio and geographically diversified business operations will overcome external headwinds.
@Rauli_Juva anticipates a small improvement in Friday’s Q2 review, and there’s good reason for it, as so much depends on this “distilled pile” : Anora Q2’25 -ennakko: Pääsiäisen ajoitus tukee pientä parannusta - Inderes
| Forecast Table | Q2’24 | Q2’25 | Q2’25e | Q2’25e | 2025e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actual | Inderes | Consensus | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 177 | 178 | 178 | 689 | ||
| EBITDA (adj.) | 15.2 | 17.0 | 16.1 | 70.0 | ||
| EBITDA | 14.9 | 17.0 | 16.1 | 70.9 | ||
| Operating profit (adj.) | 8.7 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 43.4 | ||
| Operating profit | 8.4 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 44.3 | ||
| EPS (reported) | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.30 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | -3.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.6 % | -0.4 % | ||
| Operating profit-% (adj.) | 4.9 % | 5.9 % | 5.3 % | 6.3 % |
Alko’s July sales figures were published today, which is interesting perhaps especially because this marks the first comparable month since the 8% legislative change for wines that took place last June. Total sales in July decreased by 2.5%, but wines and spirits relevant to Anora decreased by 5% and 8% respectively. The market’s downward trend thus continues, which has naturally also been observed in Norway and Sweden in the early year figures.
On Friday, we will indeed see how Anora performed in Q2, where the timing of Easter supported volumes. If you have any questions for the company for Friday’s interview, feel free to post them here.
Background for the question:
Koskenkorva-based mixed drinks (bitter lemon, ginger ale, etc.) have entered the market quite visibly this year.
How have sales of these developed? / Are we on target?
Are there plans to add more such grocery store drinks?
There would be semi-strong brands and a desire to grow.
However, sales outside the core markets are negligible.
Are exports being actively promoted in some way, and with what measures and schedules?
Good questions, thank you!
I have regularly inquired about international business, and in the spring, when updating a comprehensive report, my interpretation of the company’s statements was that it would receive a bit less attention. But let’s certainly ask Kirsi’s view on the matter. Below is a small excerpt from the extensive topic of the spring.
Oh dear, the cash flow was quite okay, except we are still behind last year: Anora Group Oyj:n puolivuosikatsaus 1.1.-30.6.2025: Matalampi liikevaihto vaikutti vertailukelpoiseen käyttökatteeseen Q2:lla. Toimenpiteitä taloudellisen suorituskyvyn parantamiseksi nopeutetaan | Kauppalehti
Q2 2025 in brief
- Revenue was EUR 165.5 (177.1) million, a decrease of 6.6 percent.
- Comparable EBITDA was EUR 14.0 (15.2) million, or 8.4 (8.6) percent of revenue, a decrease of 8.3 percent.
- EBITDA was EUR 13.5 (14.9) million, or 8.1 (8.4) percent of revenue, a decrease of 9.9 percent.
- Net cash flow from operating activities was EUR 22.3 (-4.4) million.
- Earnings per share were EUR 0.03 (0.03).
January-June 2025 in brief
- Revenue was EUR 306.8 (324.0) million, a decrease of 5.3 percent.
- Comparable EBITDA was EUR 22.0 (24.1) million, or 7.2 (7.4) percent of revenue, a decrease of 8.8 percent.
- EBITDA was EUR 22.4 (22.7) million, or 7.3 (7.0) percent of revenue, a decrease of 1.4 percent.
- Net cash flow from operating activities was EUR -53.4 (-49.0) million.
- Earnings per share were EUR -0.00 (-0.01).
- Net debt / comparable EBITDA (rolling 12 months) was 3.0 (2.8).
Q2 figures look a bit poor…
@Rauli_Juva’s quick comments on the result: Anora Q2’25 -pikakommentti: Tulos jäi hieman odotuksista ja vertailukaudesta - Inderes
International operations would require a slightly different approach, with soju and baijiu… Koskenkorva doesn’t really work as a premium product in so-called travel retail. Are there overlapping company structures as a legacy from Norway? The result would require heavy restructuring. One might perhaps ask if increasing efficiency has been under review?
Anora’s problems are not purely related to the company’s own actions. If one takes a quick look at how big players are doing, doing business is quite a struggle for them too.
It’s difficult to make an investment case out of this, when the outlook for earnings growth is a bit so-so.
From that interview, those questions from @Addick and @Ummon were also included. However, regarding growth targets, the answers were left for the Capital Markets Day announced today for November.
Rauli has prepared a company report as Anora publishes its Q2 report.
Anora’s Q2 result fell short of our expectations and the comparison period. Although the company reiterated its full-year guidance, our forecasts fell below it, which is why we lowered the target price to 3.3 euros (previously 3.5e). With a moderate valuation, we reiterate our ‘add’ recommendation.
Quoted from the report:
Efficiency measures accelerated, strategy renewed – CMD in November
In connection with the report, Kirsi Puntila, who started as CEO in March, also stated that the company is accelerating measures to improve financial performance, although it did not specify what this means. The company also announced it is preparing a strategy update, focusing on improving short- and medium-term performance in 2025-26 and supporting growth from 2026 onwards.
Anora announced it will hold a Capital Markets Day on 5.11., where it will provide more details on its strategy update. We believe the company will also update its financial targets at this event. The strategy will aim for 2028, meaning it is clearly for a shorter term than the company’s current strategy published in 2022, where the target year was only 2030. Our comments on the current strategy and targets and their potential changes can be read on pages 10-12.
Other analysts also completed their work on the conclusions of the Q2 report, excerpts from Kauppalehti’s flash news:
OP lowers Anora’s target price to EUR 3.40 (previously EUR 3.50), reiterates add recommendation.
Nordea lowers Anora’s target price to EUR 4.60 (previously EUR 4.70), reiterates buy recommendation.
SEB Bank lowers Anora’s recommendation to EUR 3.10 (previously EUR 3.30), reiterates hold recommendation.
Kirsi Puntila’s interview at Mandatum:
Here are Rauli’s comments on Anora’s competitor Viva Wine’s Q2.
Anora’s Wine segment’s main competitor Viva Wine reported its Q2 results yesterday. Viva’s revenue decreased slightly in the Nordics, and it exceptionally lost a small amount of market share. Due to an acquisition and a change in reporting, the profitability of the Nordics can no longer be directly seen from Viva’s reported figures. Compared to Anora’s Wine segment, Viva’s performance has been better for a longer time, and in Q2, Viva’s revenue also developed slightly better, and profitability was clearly superior to Anora’s Wine segment.
I was thinking about Anora’s performance. It has scale, expertise, and a brand.
Dividends alone amount to the same as the stock market’s historical return 
And yet:
On the other hand, we have declining alcohol demand, which doesn’t make Anora’s business easier.
Sales up, costs down. Necessary measures and even radical moves, if the business isn’t going well? Aren’t we all in the same boat here, hoping for owner value maximization?
Of course, owner value is maximized in every possible way when the ownership structure includes, for example, the youthful, dynamic Finnish state with a fifth share 
Well, the owner doesn’t run the company, but the operative management does! They are the ones thinking about how to refine the business to its peak!
According to Anora’s own website, the last management transaction was from 2023!
According to the 2024 annual report, the CEO’s fixed annual salary is over 710 thousand euros. For example, the CEO seems to have ‘committed’ about 1.5 weeks’ worth of salary to Anora shares.
Old wisdom says: buy when insiders buy. Private investors should have listened to this and not bought Anora shares.
I’m not selling my shares, but I should hear something positive about the business, or if the insiders truly believe in Anora, they could invest at least a little of their own money into the company.
I could ask this question in the next interview; I don’t recall asking Anora about this for a while. The current CEO has only been in their role for a couple of months, and the strategy and goals are being updated, which might prevent them from buying shares, but after the November CMD, there’s unlikely to be a valid reason.