Alma Media - thread

The CFO has purchased shares for over 44,000 euros.

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Today must be Alma’s dividend payment day, so what’s the deal that instead of cash, a few new shares have appeared in the account at a purchase price of €0.00?

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Hey, nothing has appeared for me, and the dividend payment is still about a month away:

Alma Media’s Financial Statement Release January-December 2025: Adjusted operating profit rose 8.1% in the last quarter and 6.8% in 2025 | Kauppalehti

The Board of Directors of Alma Media will propose to the Annual General Meeting that a dividend of 0.48 euros per share be paid for the financial year 2025 (2024: 0.46 euros per share). The dividend will be paid to shareholders who are registered in the company’s shareholder register maintained by Euroclear Finland Oy on the dividend record date of April 13, 2026. The Board’s preliminary proposal is that the dividend will be paid on April 20, 2026.

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Okay, I looked at both the year and the month incorrectly. So the mystery only gets better :slightly_smiling_face:

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What did I miss today, with Alma’s stock up +7.82% while the rest of the market is down?

The end-of-day rise seems to have occurred with very low trading volume. Just over a hundred shares at the closing price and a few hundred more a bit cheaper earlier.

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Here are Petri’s forecasts as Alma reports its results on Wednesday :slight_smile:

We predict the company’s revenue and operating profit to have grown from the comparison period, although the market situation has remained relatively sluggish. Our 2026 forecasts anticipate moderate revenue growth and significant profit growth (+8%), so we expect the company to reiterate its guidance.

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ALMA MEDIA INTERIM REPORT JANUARY–MARCH 2026: Profitability continued to strengthen, all segments improved their results

Financial performance in January–March 2026:

  • Revenue EUR 83.1 (79.2) million, growth 4.9%.
  • Digital business share of revenue 85.9% (83.9%).
  • Adjusted operating profit EUR 20.4 (17.2) million, 24.6% (21.7%) of revenue.
  • Operating profit EUR 20.3 (16.6) million, growth 22.5%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA EUR 24.5 (21.6) million, growth 13.2%.
  • Earnings per share EUR 0.19 (0.14), up 41.2%.
  • Alma Career: Revenue grew driven by the Czech market, adjusted operating profit strengthened by 14.4%.
  • Alma Marketplaces: Revenue grew 11.8%, adjusted operating profit improved 29.0%.
  • Alma News Media: Profitability development remained strong. Adjusted operating profit grew 21.9%.

Alma Media Interim Report January–March 2026: Profitability continued to strengthen, all segments improved their results | Kauppalehti

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A nice earnings beat from Alma Media. Here are Petri’s comments:

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“Once times improve, Alma will take off like a pike from the reeds.” I have written this on the forum before, but it’s taking off already​:ok_hand: Especially the results were strong. Additionally, there is a faint scent of potential M&A in the air – either domestically or abroad.

CEO interview:

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Petri’s latest report on Alma Media:

A more general question for @Petri_Gostowski, but why wasn’t a Buy recommendation given in this case, even though there’s 21% upside to the target price and an additional 4% dividend yield? Previously, over 15% total return expectation was enough for a Buy recommendation, and this definition has since been abandoned, but surely the return expectation is now already 25%, and Alma’s risks don’t seem exceptionally high either.

This is apparently the most recent recommendation policy.

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Good question, and yes, I did consider a Buy recommendation as well. The reason I held back on it is that it’s difficult to see drivers for it to play out in this operating environment.

Secondly, I’m thinking that because of the still-closed strait in the Middle East, macro risks are currently skewed more to the downside than the upside. Therefore, I’d rather save that Buy recommendation in case Mr. Market gives an even better entry point.

All in all, this was a borderline case, and I ended up holding off on a stronger view for now.

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My own view is that in addition to the recommendation, the forecasts are unnecessarily cautious. I believe an EPS of 0.85 is closer, but even that still leaves room for market and operating environment risks. The valuation could be P/E 20, whereas Inderes had it at 19.5 before the report. Now it’s P/E 18.5 based on the €15 target price before the Q1 report. With a P/E of 20, we reach a TP (target price) of €17, which I think it should be without being overly cautious.

The company benefits from AI, its own operations are very efficient, there’s a 4% dividend yield, room for acquisitions, good return on capital, and the firm possesses resilience even in a difficult market.

By the way, there was also a block trade of approximately 700,000 shares of Alma today. An interesting addition with the ownership arrangements.

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That 700,000-share trade is likely the one mentioned in the news below, meaning Otava has received permission from the Finnish Competition and Consumer Authority (KKV) to execute it / exceed the 40% ownership threshold.

To “celebrate” (?) the trade, the Chairman of the Board was also replaced. Lindholm is the CEO of the Otava Group.

Whatever corporate restructurings might occur, Otava plays “the” role. Otava itself has increased its ownership over the years, and at the 30% threshold, it made a modest/mandatory tender offer, and without any premium, managed to gain just over a percentage point more ownership at a price of 9.1 euros in summer 2023.

Alma Media Corporation’s Chairman of the Board changes - Alma Media Alma Media Oyj:n hallituksen puheenjohtaja vaihtuu - Alma Media

Otava has received KKV’s (Finnish Competition and Consumer Authority) approval to increase its ownership in Alma Media - Otava Group Otava on saanut KKV:n hyväksynnän kasvattaa omistustaan Alma Mediassa - Otavakonserni

Otava Oy increases its ownership in Alma Media Corporation - Otava Group Otava Oy kasvattaa omistustaan Alma Media Oyj:ssä - Otavakonserni

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It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at Otava’s board meetings. What is their end game in this Alma Media play?

“A strategic holding and Alma will remain an independent listed company” and whatever other jargon we’ve always heard from Otava.

Somehow, Otava’s actions don’t make sense purely on economic grounds. Is there a consolidation of the media field underway, where rationality is being overtaken by ambition and a quest for scale? Is Otava ready to pay a control premium (as they are doing now) and leave Alma to “stagnate” on the stock exchange? Well, at least it will pay out an okay dividend in the future.

Mariatorp Oy, Ilkka Oyj, and Keskisuomalainen Oyj (partly indirectly through Ilkka) influence this course of events with their own votes and plans. Will the pieces start moving now that Ilkka has managed to combine its share classes? Are the stubborn Ostrobothnians finally cashing out, with Alma ending up with Otava at a good price? Is it time to jump on the Alma (or Ilkka or Keskisuomalainen) bandwagon and reap the fruits of consolidation?

IMO, Otava should delist Alma, or is it a bit too much for them to swallow after all?

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It might be too big a bite for Otava alone, but why not with a partner? For example, Herlin.