What is the final result when you combine the strong growth outlook of AI with a conservative industry and its inherent sluggishness?
Digital pathology is thus growing at about triple the speed of the rest of the economy. It was noted that North America is ahead in the digital pathology market.
Commentary: Regulation in Europe has been more favorable so far, but there is obviously more money in the States, and acquiring equipment like scanners likely isn’t a bottleneck as it is for the “poor Europeans.” Aiforia has already announced partnership agreements in the US—Mayo, Paige, Path Presenter—and 25% of revenue in H1/25 came from the States. And they already have a subsidiary there. The weakened dollar exchange rate will likely cause temporary pressure on revenue in euros until the rate turns around, provided the “toxic” economic environment also turns. If the CAGR is 9.9% on average and Aiforia grows even faster than others in Europe—meaning they win contracts—things are looking good. This is supported by:
An average floor level of 9.9% provides some security, although it’s not “enough” for an investor if we only followed the market. Nuways’ 65% would lead to a revenue of EUR 50 million if continued until 2030, assuming a base of EUR 4 million in 2025—not the EUR 100 million Aiforia previously targeted. Inde [Inderes] forecasts EUR 30 million. EUR 50 million would be good too. Based on current outlooks, growth is exponential, meaning the start seems even too sluggish and accelerates as infrastructure is built at customer sites, the number of models increases, and invoicing ramps up following deployment.
Aiforia could get a boost from the predicted small-cap boom in 2026-2027. Funding pressures naturally have an impact, and the expected conversion of orders into revenue will likely materialize gradually, so one won’t have to put all hope in valuation multiples alone. No need to be jealous of the big boys/girls at current prices; they paid significantly more for the shares in the IPO and private placements than what anyone can get the shares for right now.
Today it was also announced that option subscription periods will be extended by 1-3 years. https://www.inderes.fi/releases/muutos-aiforia-technologies-oyjn-optio-ohjelmiin The reason is likely to make the options profitable through a potential rise in the share price. Extending option periods is a “cheap” way for the company to fix the incentive structure without spending a single euro from the cash reserves right now.