NuWays has apparently already updated its outlook on 12.12.2025, i.e., after the €4m directed issue, and raised the target price based on cost cuts.
3.5 (Buy) → 3.8 EUR & (Buy)
It should grow, though…
The gloom of H1 2025 is explained by Research at -16%, while Clinical grew an impressive 66%. With small numbers, the changes are large.
So, H2 2025 should see growth…
Whether it’s actually been achieved, we’ll unfortunately only see on March 11th, at which point over 250 days have passed since the start of H2 2025… And even the freshest data will be over 70 days old. Sigh. Semi-annual reporting really should be supplemented with some reporting, such as at least sales figures.
Given the company’s cash burn rate, which is largely being spend on sales, the company is expected to deliver strong growth figures in H2 2025, demonstrating that the commercialisation and scale period of the business is clearly underway.
In that respect we view the results of H2 2025 as a pivot point. In H1 2025, the company grew a timid 2% yoy, which in our view has largely contributed to the recent share price weakness. In must be highlighted however, that this performance was largely due to the weak performance of the Research segment. During the same time, Clinical, which is the scalable part of the business, grew by 60%. For FY25e, we model 66% growth in the Clinical segment compared to a 16% sales decline of the Research segment, which would translate to an aggregate yearly growth of 25%, eNuW.
Management clearly views the years 2026-28e as hyperscale years for Aiforia, translating into a CAGR of 65.4% for 2026-28e .