And the comments 
Due to the timing of the equalization calculation, Admicom typically generates the most profit in Q2 and Q3, so I donât think thereâs too much to worry about yet regarding the Q1 profit miss. But the report didnât offer any major reasons for celebration yet, as wasnât really expected either. Indeed, today in the stock market there might be other drivers bringing movement to the share price than just the earnings release 
We had Admicomâs new CEO visit Ruoholahti for an interview:
The big picture has not been the same for a long time
About 28 consecutive forecast revisions, but the big picture and the long game would remain unchanged. The numbers and data do not support what is being said in any way. For this year, an operating profit of 31 M⏠was forecasted, now itâs at 1.2 MâŹ.
Sequels for the comedy saga are made with an identical concept. Believe these fairy tales whoever wants to.
Are we looking at the same company now? 31 M⏠operating profit with this turnover would indeed be very optimistic forecastsđ
Here is Almanakkaâs article about Admicom and its Q1 
Whenever a stock exchange release or CEOâs review begins with a mention of how well strategy work has progressed, one can guess the result has been weak. Now the stock exchange release began with âStrategy implementation progressed as plannedâ and the CEOâs review as above. The rule still applies. Donât get me wrong â in my opinion, the CEOâs most important task is to ensure the strategyâs progress in the companyâs operations and to communicate about it, but whenever the result is good, they always first focus on praising the quarterâs figures.
Here is a fresh company report typed by Ate.
We reiterate our Add recommendation for Admicom, but lower the target price to EUR 55.0 (previously EUR 60.0) in line with forecast cuts. In the big picture, the companyâs growth is still gradually picking up this year, but profitability development seems to be going a notch lower than we previously anticipated. At the same time, tariffs and the possible escalation of the trade war have brought new uncertainty over the marketâs expected recovery. In the medium term, there is clear potential for improvement in both the companyâs growth and profitability, as acquisitions made in recent years and investments in, for example, product portfolio development, sales, and customer experience begin to bear fruit. In this respect, the stockâs valuation still looks moderate.
Quoted from the report:
For the full year, the company commented that it is on track with its guidance for both growth and profitability. Typically, Q2 and Q3 are Admicomâs strongest quarters in terms of profitability, so we do not believe there is much to worry about regarding the underperformance in early part of the year. However, in light of the development of the cost structure, the adjusted operating margin % seems to be heading closer to the lower end (31-36%) of the guidance than the upper end this year.
I donât know if the chart is somehow displayed poorly, but for 2025, an operating profit of âŹ31M has been forecast (i.e., was forecast).
Not even a bull analyst can make such a bad forecast for a darling stock 9 months out.
It might be my mistake as a reader, but wasnât that 31 million operating profit for 2025 predicted in 2020, i.e., 5 years ago?
You interpreted that correctly 
Now one can interpret how relevant it is to even try to predict five years ahead when there is practically no accuracy.
It would be advisable, though entirely at everyoneâs own discretion, to try to interpret from the chart whether those forecasts have any significance. They could actually be calculated with a standard formula with equal accuracy.
Itâs also worth considering the big picture. This same way of predicting overly optimistic results repeats from one company to another. The valuation level is justified, for example, by the P/E ratio two years out. But if the forecast is off by 50%, then that P/E ratio is 100% wrong.
It must be remembered that the desire to maximize this and next yearâs operating profit is not very high on the companyâs priority list. It certainly wouldnât generate that 31 million if the market weakened radically, but due to growth ambitions, profitability will have to be compromised for some years.
This message inspired me to go back to the end of 2020 and admire the forecasts made in that bubbly environment. They were ultimately tuned to the max, and yet the valuation multiples were outrageously high. The recommendation was at least âreduce,â when in hindsight, it should of course have been a strong âsellâ I had only been following Admicom for a few months then, and I remember the confusion when the stock just rocketed upwards with high volume, even though the valuation was extremely high. At that time, many international investors joined the stock in that strong rally, and block trades were flying around. That curbed my desire to take a strong stance then, as the momentum was so strong, and the thought in the back of my mind was âdo these people know something I just donât understand?â
Well, now in hindsight, one can laugh at this analysis made almost at the stockâs peak.
Those were indeed wild times in the stock market, looking at these SaaS company valuations:
Median EV/S almost 15x; nowadays, not many companies in the world would be granted such multiples.
If one compares Admicomâs current valuation and the expectations loaded into the forecasts to those of 2020, quite some horrors would have to occur for the forecasts to show a similar trend as in the last 5 years. Now, even an optimist could see opportunities for forecasts to rise, provided that the market situation picks up in the coming years and Admicomâs strategy execution proceeds well simultaneously.
Hi Atte,
Iâm focusing more on Admicomâs long-term picture (instead of the annual earnings game), but could you still elaborate on how you see the 2025 ARR forecast vs. Guidance (8-14% growth)?
However, Q1 2025 ARR performance was relatively weak, and the guidance assumes a significant improvement YTG vs. Q1 run-rate.
When I quickly calculate it myself, I end up more at +4-6% growth levels in 2025 without a truly significant improvement YTG 2025. With the assumptions in the image below, itâs +4%.
I see risk especially regarding downsell and churn, as the market environment is still weak, and significant internal organizational changes can also cause operational problems at the customer interface (although efforts are naturally made to minimize these).
M&A is, of course, a wildcard, as the guidance is not organic (?). But M&A wildcards are very rarely included in guidance (= organic growth plan considering risks & opportunities).
Note: Q1 2025 churn is annualized (4x), and the company commented that customer churn was largely driven by elevated bankruptcies (+70% y-o-y).
Admicom Oyj has today received a notification in accordance with Chapter 9, Section 5 of the Securities Markets Act, according to which Danske Bank A/Sâs ownership in the Companyâs shares and voting rights decreased to below five (5) percent on May 23, 2025.
On April 30, 2025, Danske Bank A/S owned approximately 350k shares, and now, according to the notification, approximately 250k. Quite a fair chunk has therefore been on the market, and it will be interesting to see at the turn of the month again where the stock has moved.
Yes, in my own expectations regarding this yearâs ARR, we are closer to the lower end of the guidance range than the upper end. The company has outlined this yearâs growth drivers as follows:
Based on the comments from the Q1 earnings info, ARR growth is weighted towards the end of the year this year. The company also commented that the timing of planned price increases would affect ARR growth at the quarterly level. In my opinion, there are still good prerequisites to achieve development in line with the guidance, even without acquisitions. But churn must calm down towards the end of the year from early-year levels, and at the same time, reasonably smooth sales must continue, or preferably improve. In just over a month, we will already receive another status update from the company on this topic in connection with the Q2 report.
Admicom held an analyst call yesterday before the quiet period. A recording of the event should also become available, but I havenât spotted it on their investor pages yet. Naturally, there was nothing surprising in the call, mostly just a recap of previous information.
I already wrote a preview comment on the companyâs Q2 results, which will be published on July 8th. I intend to return from my summer vacation just before that, so it was easier to release the preview well in advance from a scheduling perspective.
Hereâs the recording from yesterday:
It would have been found on the investor pages earlier, but I looked in the wrong place
Admicom announced a little less than a week ago a new position with the title Head of Product Enablement, which strongly hints at the launch of a larger internationalization project.
https://admicomoy.teamtailor.com/en/jobs/5967298-head-of-product-enablement
A couple of excerpts from the job advertisement:
This new position combines product operations leadership with product ownership of shared product functionalities, playing a key role in driving our international expansion and product scalability. Weâre looking for a strong product leader to shape the role and help scale Admicomâs product development capabilities globally.
Youâll have the opportunity to define and scale a new department that plays a critical role in our international growth and SaaS product strategy. The position offers room to make a real impact in both strategic and operational areas, while working in a collaborative, low-hierarchy culture where your voice truly matters. Youâll also find growth opportunities across leadership, internationalization, and platform strategy.
If I interpret that announcement correctly, a new unit is being set up within Admicom, whose task is to build cross-functional features that will both tie Admicomâs various products more tightly together and make them scale more efficiently. For example, the SSO (single sign-on) mentioned in the announcement would enable the use of all products belonging to Admicomâs product portfolio with a single ID.
My own guess is that some kind of centralized dashboard is under development, from which customers can, according to their needs, adopt the products they require from Admicomâs product portfolio without major onboarding meetings. This would certainly lower the customerâs threshold to use the product portfolio more widely, not to mention that such a solution would be very scalable internationally.
This is just my own speculation; Iâm not sure if Admicom has already discussed this. Hopefully, this provided some new ideas or perspectives, at least the job advertisement is new. 
Itâs sluggish.
April-June 2025 (Q2) Summary:
- Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) 1) grew by 6.0% to EUR 35.7 million (33.7).
- Recurring revenue 2) grew by 4.3% to EUR 9.3 million (9.0).
- Revenue grew by 2.2% to EUR 9.7 million (9.5).
- Adjusted EBITDA 3) was EUR 3.1 million (3.6), or 32.0% of revenue (38.4%). There were no adjustments affecting EBITDA in the second quarter.
- Adjusted operating profit (EBIT) 3) was EUR 1.9 million (2.7), or 20.0% of revenue (28.4%).
- Earnings per share were EUR 0.26 (0.38).
- In June, Henna Kotilainen was appointed Group Chief Strategy Officer (CSO) and a member of the Management Team, effective September 1, 2025.
- The financial guidance provided in connection with the financial statement release remains unchanged, but matters affecting revenue and profitability have been clarified.
During the second quarter, market recovery progressed slower than anticipated at the end of last year, and construction industry revenues showed only a slight increase. The situation is aptly described by one of our customers: âOur tender pipeline is record high, but our order backlog is record low.â
Customer churn continued to follow the challenging market development and was 1.6% of the ARR at the end of 2024 in the second quarter. Churn due to bankruptcies decreased compared to the previous year, but in addition to bankruptcies, churn has also been caused by consolidation in the construction industry, where systems are harmonized at the group level, as well as intensified competition.
Despite the churn, the number of customers developed positively in the second quarter, and the customer count grew at more than double the pace compared to Q1. However, the average monthly billing for new customers is currently lower than for departing customers, which slows down growth.
Simo certainly has quite a task to unify the whole. Unifying the customer experience, cross-selling, organizational restructuring, corporate structure reform, better integration of acquired products, product packaging, standardization of billing models, etc., etc.
The Admicom entity has become quite convoluted in recent years, and now, during quiet times, the whole must be made 1) more attractive to the customer and 2) more efficient for its own organization.
Here are my initial thoughts:
The report doesnât really evoke any shouts of joy on this rainy summer morning, but then again, I wasnât expecting any positive surprises either. Signs of an anemic market have indeed been present throughout the beginning of the year. But now, with our own actions, we need to get ARR growth to pick up towards the end of the year, and a big variable here is the change in Ultimaâs pricing model mentioned in the report.
It has been a long time for those waiting and the undersigned with Admicom. Compared to the performance of the last couple of years, the valuation is quite high. The markets have so far been patient and sympathetic towards Admicom, which is struggling with a weak construction cycle. The excellent performance of past years has therefore not been forgotten by investors, and a certain quality company label still supports the valuation.
At the same time, the company has been in a constant state of change due to internationalization, strategy updates, and key personnel changes. In hindsight, these might have come at a good time, as the market was otherwise abysmal, making growth and profit challenging.
Going forward, it is to be hoped that as the market hopefully recovers, we would reach a situation where the biggest phase of change would be behind us and the company could enjoy the fruits of a recovering market.