2022 TOP/FLOP3 from outside Finland

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Inspired by previous threads, I’m trying to start a thread for companies outside the Helsinki Stock Exchange. Many here have portfolios with companies from all over the world, so it would be interesting to hear which companies the forum’s panel believes in and which ones their faith has already dwindled in.

You don’t have to list both, but I thought I’d bundle the tops and flops into this one thread. The thread title can be modified if someone comes up with something catchier.

NOTE: No investment tips, everyone should also do their own research and analysis.

TOP

  1. Zignsec :sweden:

The recently concluded agreements from H2/2021 will really start to show in next year’s revenue. The ISO certification and SaaS platform will be visible in the coming year. Growing market, competent management. Towards the end of the year, the stock price has been hammered like a stray pig.

  1. Kambi :sweden:

A lot of bad news has been factored into the stock price as major customers have switched/are switching to using their own sportsbook. However, new agreements are being concluded, and the PENN cooperation is only ending in 2023-2024. The American markets remain the biggest growth driver. Based on Pareto’s latest analysis, next year’s earnings give a P/E of ~15 and 2023e ~8.

  1. Embracer :sweden:

Gaming companies have been hit hard this year, and sometimes it feels like the sector is considered dying in the coming years, even though the reality is quite different. Embracer is a reliable horse in this sector. At times, it’s a confusing jumble from which it’s difficult to create a clear overall picture, but Lars Wingefors has done valuable work for years and developed Embracer forward. Trust also remains in the future. Based on the latest ABG report, it seems more like a value stock than a growth stock…

FLOP

1.-3. Tesla :us_outlying_islands:

I couldn’t think of anything else at the moment, and I’ve been campaigning about Tesla’s overvaluation for over a year now… So far, I’ve been wrong, but let’s see how Elon Musk’s guiding star performs next year and whether such multiples are still justified.

@investori I’m replying to my own message here.

Kambi is a difficult stock because it requires constant monitoring as there are still so many question marks in the air. The PENN agreement may even extend to 2024, and by then, Kambi should have concluded new agreements with these smaller operators. Will current customers stay, and what share of the American market will they manage to capture? Corporate reorganizations add an extra flavor in both directions.
According to ABG’s estimate, 2025e EV/EBIT is ~4, but if one has to look that far into the crystal ball, it may not be so black and white.

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TOP:

  1. Elliptic Laboratories :bouvet_island:
    The revenue recognition of the Top3 PC deal, announced in 2022, is set to begin, along with greater penetration into the PC market through collaboration with Intel. The current stock price hardly accounts for any success in the PC market at the moment.

  2. Zignsec
    Same reasoning as above.

  3. Evolution Gaming
    The stock price has been beaten down. The controversy will be forgotten when the Q4/2021 results are released, and it will be confirmed that the company is still performing incomprehensibly well, leading the stock to return to its previous level and continue its steady performance.

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@Huhtis What are your own predictions for Kambi’s 2024 figures?

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I don’t dare to include my own investments here because the risk of jinxing is too great :grin: So here are my picks, and I don’t hold positions in any of these:

TOP:

Pinterest. This might seem strange, but its valuation has already fallen very low; the P/E ratio is likely just over 30 based on 2022 forecasts. Pinterest is still growing, however, with good optionality from the commerce side. And as a joker, there’s the acquisition card—Microsoft or a similar company could pick it up.

Alibaba. This might also be surprising. The fundamentals are still strong, and a huge number of new business operations are brewing. My view here is that political pressure will ease, and the market will favor growth at very low multiples.

Epsilon Net. Greece’s growth monster continues its furious pace. Greece is also digitalizing, and plenty of recovery funds are flowing into IT projects, which will benefit Epsilon. The worst of the undervaluation has been corrected, but the valuation level is still not unreasonable, especially when considering its growth and profitability.

FLOP:

Rivian. This is a no-brainer, purely due to valuation.

Roblox. I like the company, and it will surely be a winner in the future. But once again, the valuation has gotten ahead of things. Additionally, monetization is a challenge because the payers are children (parents). This is definitely a company that could easily be considered for the TOP side.

Matterport. A bit similar to Roblox. It has soared too much in the metaverse boom, and monetization isn’t very impressive yet. It’s taking a gap year. A lot depends on the metaverse momentum in 2022.

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China has been discovered quite a bit, and Evergrande has had its own impact on the matter, so I believe the market is quite beaten down relative to other markets in terms of its potential. The country has giants comparable to US tech companies with a larger domestic market. My choices

  1. Alibaba

I would say, without looking, that it trades at a lower P/E than Kesko, but there’s some difference in potential. It sells basic consumer products, like Kesko.

  1. Tencent

A giant in gaming, entertainment, and other services. Like the previous one, it has fallen into the administration’s bad books, and its business is in the “naughty” category. Surely, common sense will prevail here too.

  1. JD.com

Baba’s “little brother,” which has gained ground internationally with its commerce.

These three are perhaps my top picks, from which top returns can be gained, but there’s also risk as a counterbalance.

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Top performers directly from my own portfolio (mistake!?):

  1. ZignSec
  2. Voxtur
  3. Paysafe

Flops:

  1. Tesla
  2. GameStop
  3. Rivian
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  1. Powerband solutions - The car business will suffer for a while, but if the management’s promises somehow materialize, I don’t think it’s expensive.

  2. Zignsec - Difficult to estimate what kind of revenue would pull this out of the mire. I would expect 100-200MSEK revenue in 2022, 20% EBITDA… is this then expensive? We’ll see.

  3. Mercell holdings - The business is, in my opinion, simple enough that the M&A (mergers and acquisitions) strategy could work. Will it work or not? We’ll probably see that in 2022 as well.

All in the portfolio and all at a loss :smiley:. I kind of feel like I could just glance at the portfolio in six months and see if I’m rich or poor :joy:

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TOP

  1. Progenity
  2. Disney
  3. ZignSec

FLOP

  1. Robinhood
  2. Palantir
  3. Paysafe
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Topit 1. Volvo car 2. Ibio 3. Allarity therapeutics.
Flopit 1. Hyzon 2. Oroco 3. Voxtur
:grin:

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You are now treading in very, very, very dangerous waters, no matter how much you write it as a joke. Hyzon, Voxtur, and Orocue are not to be criticized on our forum, you hear me. Emoji.

Regarding the actual topic, I’m boring and I guess that some kind of sanity will finally return to the markets and the air will be let out of the most outlandish and overpriced schemes. So let’s just say, boringly:

FLOP TOP 3

  1. GME
  2. AMC
  3. TESLA

Tops are harder. I believe in the forum’s favorite stocks, Hyzon, Orocue, and Voxtur, but for a slightly longer term than just next year. However, let’s put:

TOPS

  1. Voxtur, because the case’s progress currently looks so strong.
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Top 3 from my own portfolio:

  • M1 Kliniken - The popularity and underlying trend of aesthetic treatments and plastic surgery continue, micro cap size, and invests in growth / clinic network growth in Central Europe

  • Daimler (after renaming to Mercedes Benz): Excellent brand, knows how to make (also) electric cars (follower’s advantage on the path opened by the overhyped vanguard) and undervaluation will resolve

  • Fresenius SE - Resilient healthcare and medical device sector, hit by the impact of the pandemic

Flops:

  • Tesla - Overhyped, overpriced, first mover’s advantage period will come to an end, Elon Musk a caricature of a reliable and exemplary business leader
  • Rivian - Overhyped, overpriced
  • DoorDash - The tailwind for the food delivery market will end and we will return to reality (Has anyone or any company made this a profitable business and will they ever? ), regulation in Western countries drives additional costs for couriers’ wages and commission fees, and trade unions are putting pressure on platform economy companies
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Top 3 from my own portfolio

  • UU.N Sprott Physical Uranium Trust. It’s possible that uranium spot prices will soar in 2022, or it might happen later. I don’t care when it takes off, uranium will run out soon :radioactive:

  • Evolution. @Gigiman concisely summarized the fundamentals.

  • Embracer. The share price only needs to recover to last April’s figures, and that’s already +40%. These recent acquisitions can’t all be :poop:, can they?

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Top 3:
Zignsec
Hyzon
Novavax

Flop 3:
GME
AMC
Rivian

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Top:
Nordic Unmanned
Smartoptics
Tesla

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Top:
Alphabet
Berkshire Hathaway
Chevron

Three stable companies that you can sleep well at night having in your portfolio.

Flop:
You can glance at these from Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs. There’s probably nothing wrong with the businesses themselves; it’s just not their time yet.

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These threads are nice, especially when you notice that a stock is hovering in both tops and flops. My own guesses are quite boring, but I’ll make them anyway. The reasons for the tops can be found in the companies’ threads.

TOP

  1. Oroco
  2. Voxtur
  3. Alibaba

FLOP

  1. GameStop (or some other meme stock)
  2. Rivian (this one is on many other people’s lists)
  3. Kambi (the third one was harder to come up with, but one new big customer loss can quickly and sharply turn the direction southeast, as was seen this year)
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Top picks:

  1. Fiverr
  2. Evolution
  3. Teladoc

These three companies have performed well, their business is improving, yet their stock prices have taken a significant hit. The upcoming quarters will restore confidence, and the multiples will recover.

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I was going to write down my own thoughts, but everything was already here, and in the same order I had in mind. :slight_smile:

I bet that next year investors will realize that China is still standing, and the affordable valuations will start to attract them.

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I’ve somehow ended up in a situation where my portfolio only contains gold, uranium, and copper. So, let’s put one of each at the top:

Tops

  1. Troilus Gold
  2. Denison Mines
  3. Aldebaran Resources (started to get a small head start yesterday :grimacing:)

Flops:

  1. Autostore Holdings. My girlfriend told me yesterday that I should stop gambling on commodities and start acting like a responsible adult. So, the number one flop from her portfolio :joy:
  2. ARK Innovation ETF. The symbol of our time’s stock market bubble.
  3. Bitcoin. I got my first and so far only 10-baggers from this and ETH this summer. I didn’t understand crypto when I bought the longs, and I still don’t.
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TOP

  1. Voxtur
  2. Oroco
  3. Hyzon

FLOP

  1. Arocell
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