Strong performance, especially great that international business is growing rapidly. Corona had a negative impact in July-August, I wonder if the worsening Corona situation in Q4 will affect this quarter? I’m in this anyway, as all the growth drivers are perfectly in place 
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Here’s the company’s own report and presentation, along with excellent figures:
The targets for the next three years are also commendable, and if achieved, the business will have expanded significantly 
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I tried to calculate this year’s EPS but couldn’t quite get a clear picture. Calculating from EBITDA, 0.25 NOK would have been earned, and for the full year, it would be around 0.33 NOK. Is this the right magnitude?
Pareto forecasts 63% EPS growth p.a. for the next 5 years. Calculating with an EPS of 0.33 NOK, EPS for 2023 would be 1.4 NOK and for 2025, 3.8 NOK. The P/E ratios would be 13 for 2023 and 5 for 2025. Relative to the growth rate: the stock price for 2023 will have a 3x multiplier (P/E 40) and for 2025, a 6x multiplier (P/E 30).
Edit: I decided to get in with a small monitoring stake.
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Fresh market data on an ever-strengthening megatrend and growth:
In the third quarter of 2020, 9.9% of passenger cars sold in the EU were electrically-chargeable vehicles, compared to 3.0% during the same period last year, (data from the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA). The support measures introduced by various countries to stimulate car demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic disadvantaged conventionally-powered vehicles.
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/11/20201106-aceaecv.html
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Thanks to the thread starter and all the discussants. This seems like a very interesting case, and I’m seriously considering getting on board with Zaptec.
I also see a small opportunity here for a good exit case at some point, as consolidation in the industry will surely be seen over the years as growth continues. With Norway already secured, I am relatively confident that the company can successfully expand to other parts of Scandinavia as well.
The only thing that worries me more in the long run is the proliferation of hydrogen cars. How do you others see this threat regarding Zaptec?
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This forum has a thousand times better hydrogen experts than myself, but I’m approaching this with common sense 
Currently, electric cars and hybrids are the solution that car manufacturers are investing in, especially for passenger cars. In addition to that, there are huge investments in all the other infrastructure needed for electric mobility, e.g., Zaptec’s business area of charging systems, but also generally massive investments in producing renewable electricity, be it solar or wind power. And these are also needed for hydrogen.
I believe that once more and more households get used to charging their car at home or in the parking lot, it will be a barrier to switch to a solution where you go to (hydrogen) stations to refuel. The driving ranges with electricity are constantly getting longer, so this problem will also start to disappear. In addition, as solar panels, for example, develop further, many will get electricity “for free” through them and want to be self-sufficient in their own energy production.
As for Zaptec, I would not see hydrogen as a threat, at least not in the next 10-15 years; on the contrary, that is also a short time to build a comprehensive charging infrastructure. I also believe that consolidation will be seen in the industry, and a couple of big market leaders will emerge, and then there will probably always be some small local players left.
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I’ll add that the amount/need to be replaced is absolutely huge. It’s unlikely that either/or any single solution can replace diesel/petrol-powered vehicles; instead, we’ll need electric/hydrogen/methane/bio/+other green alternatives.
Zaptec will surely have markets to conquer for another 10+ years, and building that infrastructure won’t happen at the snap of a finger. I should definitely get this into my portfolio soon, and thanks to the more active discussants in the thread, it’s being followed!
Edit: There’s certainly no harm in this on a general level either 
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I personally don’t see hydrogen cars as any kind of threat to Zaptec’s business. @LakeBoodom explained the core of the matter quite well with common sense. And @jaska1 stated the essential point. There’s certainly enough market for both when internal combustion engines are phased out. Here’s a link on the topic… engine factories are being closed at an accelerating pace and some technology will replace them, that’s 100% certain. Topmanager-Wechsel von Daimler zu Tesla erzürnt IG Metall - electrive.net
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Electricity has a clear advantage in passenger cars regarding production and infrastructure. Hopefully, hydrogen will get its share of passenger cars, but the fact that hydrogen is starting from behind means that the foothold of electric cars is becoming set in stone.
Battery technology is the weakness of electricity, but despite this, the best electric cars today have raised their profile as luxury products in passenger cars. The technology of electric cars has thus already surpassed the market’s “resistance level,” which new products always face.
If the development of electric cars were to stop completely for 10 years, hydrogen could overtake them. But electric cars (batteries) will continue to develop while mass production of hydrogen cars is still awaited.
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“Back-of-the-envelope” calculations:
In 2019, revenue was 156 MNOK and EBITDA was 23 MNOK.
This year’s revenue growth forecast is 25-30%, and for 2021-2023 it is 35-50%. The EBITDA margin is expected to reach 20% by 2023. The 2019 EBITDA margin was 15%.
This year, the operating profit margin is temporarily slightly lower. The Q1-Q3 operating profit margin has been 13.3%. Let’s assume that revenue grows by the lower end of the forecast this year, i.e., 25%. In this case, 2020 revenue would be 195 MNOK. Let’s assume that EBITDA remains at Q3 levels or decreases slightly for the rest of the year, being 5.3 MNOK, and thus the full year EBITDA would be 24 MNOK. Calculated from this, the EBITDA margin would be 24/195, or 12.3%.
Years 2021-2023:
Base scenario:
Revenue grows by 42% annually, so revenue for 2020-2023 would be as follows:
2020: 195 MNOK
2021: 277 MNOK
2022: 393 MNOK
2023: 558 MNOK
Let’s assume that EBITDA rises to the target of 20% by 2023 (2020: 12.3%, and in subsequent years: 15%, 18%, and 20%).
EBITDA for 2020-2023:
2020: 24 MNOK
2021: 41.5 MNOK
2022: 70.7 MNOK
2023: 111.6 MNOK
Bear case scenario: Competition intensifies, new charging stations cannot be built at the planned pace, and EBITDA permanently remains at 2020 levels. Revenue growth also stays at the lower end of the forecast at 35%.
Revenue . . . . . . . . . . . EBITDA
2020: 195 MNOK . . . . . 2020: 24 MNOK
2021: 263 MNOK . . . . . 2021: 32.3 MNOK
2022: 355 MNOK . . . . . 2022: 43.7 MNOK
2023: 480 MNOK . . . . . 2023: 59 MNOK
Bull case scenario: The company achieves a 20% EBITDA margin as above, but revenue grows according to the upper end of the forecast:
Revenue . . . . . . . . . . . EBITDA
2020: 195 MNOK . . . . . 2020: 24 MNOK
2021: 292.5 MNOK . . . . 2021: 43.9 MNOK
2022: 438.8 MNOK . . . . 2022: 79.0 MNOK
2023: 658 MNOK . . . . . 2023: 131.6 MNOK
Valuation in the base scenario:
P/S 2020-2023: 6.6, 4.6, 3.3, 2.3
Market value/EBITDA 2020-2023: 53.6, 31, 18.2, 11.5
Comments?
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In any case, the case is very attractive and driven by many megatrends, so I believe it would be more than a decent investment. One must remember that the company is already profitable, especially when compared to other future-oriented companies.
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Pääomistajan Helvigin ja analyytikon kommentteja. Analyytikon mukaan markkina tulee kasvamaan vuosikymmeniä, vuonna 2030 EV penetraatiota vasta 12% koko markkinasta…
Tässä Google translatella artikkeli:
Wind power entrepreneur has doubled the money in Zaptec
While the Oslo Stock Exchange may be heading for the best month of November ever, the electric car charging company Zaptec has risen. Store owner Lars Helge Helvig has doubled his values since listing.
Lars Helge Helvig has made a fortune on wind turbines and is now investing in other projects with a clear climate profile through the company Valinor. The value of the shares in the electric car charging company Zaptec has doubled in value since the stock exchange listing in October.
Lars Helge Helvig has made a fortune on wind turbines and is now investing in other projects with a clear climate profile through the company Valinor. The value of the shares in the electric car charging company Zaptec has doubled in value since the stock exchange listing in October.
Big paper gain on electric car chargers
One of today’s winners on the stock exchange is the electric car charging company Zaptec, which went public in October.
The share price rises around 13 percent and prolongs an upturn that has lasted since the end of October. In November alone, the share price rose above 60 percent.
On Tuesday, the share price is NOK 22.50. When the company raised money prior to the listing, Zaptec was priced at NOK 11.25 per share. Since then, the share price has risen 100 percent - a doubling of the values.
The largest owner in Zaptec is wind power founder Lars Helge Helvig’s group Valinor. He sold shares for NOK 66 million in connection with the transaction before listing, but is still the largest shareholder with 23.42 per cent of the shares.
His paper gain is NOK 196 million since the issue before listing. Helvig, which is Norway’s largest private wind power developer, now has shares worth around NOK 390 million.
Helvig is tight-lipped about the strong price development, but says it is nice that the stock is doing well, but at the same time points out that it does not matter much as they have a lock-up period of six months. This means that you cannot sell until six months have passed.
- But Zaptec has a good position in the electric charger market and we have great faith in the company, which is in a market that is part of a megatrend, he says.
Analyst: - Sitting in the driver’s seat
Analyst Petter Nystrøm in ABG Sundal Collier covers the Zaptec share.
He says the company delivered good figures for the third quarter and that they also raised the outlook. Zaptec now envisages a revenue growth of 25–30 per cent in 2020, compared with 15–20 per cent previously.
- We also see that there is strong growth in all markets. Export sales are also growing and 27 per cent of sales are now outside Norway. If you look at comparable companies in Europe, they have also had a very strong development. Many want exposure to these megatrends, says Nystrøm.
He explains that the electrification of the car fleet will be one of the biggest megatrends in the coming decades and that electric car chargers are following the sale of electric cars.
If electric car sales grow by 30 percent annually in Europe, electric cars will only account for 12 percent of the car fleet in 2030, according to the analyst, who believes the market will grow for decades.
- Zaptec is in the driver’s seat and should benefit from this strong growth, he says.
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Seems relevant here too IMO
“French energy giant Total SE snapped up London’s largest car-charging network, further expanding its non-oil business as consumers accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels.”
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Let’s put it here too. @Raven_Hungry you have probably looked at Q3 figures and analysts’ target increases, so you shouldn’t only look at TA. Although I’m not the right person to comment on TA 
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I became interested in this already at the beginning of the thread and tried to buy it at 13.7 NOK, but the price ran away, and I bought something else instead. Now I thought I’d get in “at any cost” and managed to get this into my portfolio at 19.7 NOK. Well, now I can follow the development with different eyes and possibly look for additional purchases if some get really excited about taking profits; my intention is to keep this in the portfolio longer if the company maintains its good drive. My portfolio is quite defensive, and there isn’t much technology, so this purchase came at a good time.
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Update from Pareto this morning, I guess. Target 30 NOK. I’ll try to dig up a confirmation.
“reiterate Buy and lift TP to NOK 30 (21).”
“The ZAP share has surged since we initiated earlier in November. The expansion is progressing well, and EV sales are accelerating across Europe. Outlook remains firm, and Zaptec is perfectly positioned for the upcoming EV boom. The share trades at a discount to peers betting on EV – unjustified in our view. With new model releases ahead, triggers are looming, and we still believe the timing is right. We reiterate Buy and lift TP to NOK 30 (21).”
https://twitter.com/varmdoinvest/status/1329336194581327872
https://twitter.com/Tillvaxtinvest/status/1329335745413255168
Found a couple of tweets on the same topic. I guess it’s quite valid.
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“American Zaptec” came across by chance on another forum. It’s the Blink Charging Company. This one has also rocketed up by a couple of hundred percent in a month. It’s not making a profit yet, but revenue growth is around 100% this year and next.
Has anyone looked into this more?
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