Witted - Next-generation software development company

Here are Frans’s preliminary comments as Harri’s company reports its Q1 business review on Wednesday, April 23rd, around 8 AM. :slight_smile:

We expect revenue to have continued its organic decline, but the rate of decline to have softened and the quarter-on-quarter decrease in the number of specialists to have reversed. We expect profitability to have weakened slightly from last year, driven by the revenue decline. The market situation in the sector has remained very difficult, but the company’s January-February performance was slightly better than our expectations overall. However, the weakened outlook for the Finnish economy since the start of the trade war may slow down the turnaround for the investment-driven IT services market.

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kuva

March revenue exceeded forecasts quite nicely (although admittedly very small absolute figures), and the number of experts continued its expected small growth. The trend in the number of experts now looks positive. Profitability remained low and slightly below expectations. A positive sign, however, was that profitability improved again from the Q4 level (adj. EBITA-% 0.6%), and no adjustments were made to profitability, meaning the reported EBITA-% was the same as the adjusted one. Overall, sales and market comments were more positive than expected, considering that the sector has still seen many change negotiations in the early part of the year.

Here are more extensive quick comments. Join the webcast at 10 AM to ask all your tricky questions :slight_smile:

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@Frans-Mikael_Rostedt and @Harri_Sieppi discussed, among other things, Q1 and the outlook. :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:15 Q1 Highlights
02:59 Trade War
06:30 Profitability
07:43 Share Buyback Program
09:01 Strategy Update
12:53 Change in Market Environment
15:04 Goals

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There has also been a discussion about Witted on Sijoitustieto, by prominent investors:

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That comment linked by Sijoittaja-Alokas doesn’t open for me, by the way, @Frans-Mikael_Rostedt. Is the fault on my end, or was there some kind of glitch?

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It worked at first, but then it didn’t anymore, and I deleted it.

But now it works, and now it also has a company report in addition to the comment. :slight_smile:

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@Frans-Mikael_Rostedt,

A rather small point, but in a pessimistic DCF, two decimal places would almost be needed for the resulting value. It’s a bit misleading if only one decimal place is used (1.4 €/share), because a 3% buffer for the pessimistic DCF value is obtained with a DCF value of about 1.37 €/share.

In addition to this, in Witted’s case, it might exceptionally be good to fully elaborate on this pessimistic DCF, because at current price levels, it’s practically almost like an inverse DCF calculation exercise :smile_cat:

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Yeah @JHeiskanen, it initially came out incorrectly as a comment, which is why I deleted it and uploaded the report normally.

Good point @Johannes_Sippola. I went and edited it. Indeed, €1.38 is the exact value of the scenario with a 10.1% required rate of return. At today’s closing price, the difference to the share price was 2%.

In my opinion, the assumptions of the pessimistic DCF scenario can now be comfortably characterized as pessimistic. I also think of the pessimistic scenario as an inverse DCF in the current situation, when market assumptions are, at least to my eye, already very pessimistic, but I have been wrong about the stock before.

Here are the key assumptions of the pessimistic DCF:
kuva

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Hey @Pohjolan_Eka

I’m getting back to your earlier message now that we’ve wrapped up Q1. Yesterday was a rare treat – no one came to punch me in the face after the release, neither here on the forum nor in real life. Surprisingly energetic feeling after the crunch, when my nose isn’t on my cheek. We need to try to hold onto this :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

You asked earlier about our goals, specifically this:

“Witted aims for a combined annual organic growth of 20% and adjusted EBITA by the end of the strategy period.”

I’ll take a step back before answering that “scam-EBITA” question.

Setting goals is actually difficult.

We’ve talked about this before. Good goals are difficult to build – they should be ambitious (and they should be!), but at the same time realistic and such that people truly understand and see as possible.

I personally like ambitious, even slightly utopian goals (in the spirit of ‘let’s change the world’). But the world and economy are in disarray now, which makes setting goals particularly challenging. When the fundamentals around us are shaky, people long for more continuity and security – and that is reflected in companies’ strategy rounds.

Regarding the 20% target (organic growth + adjusted EBITA):

Pros:

  • :white_check_mark: Clear and measurable
  • :white_check_mark: Growth and profitability in the same package – good balance
  • :white_check_mark: Organic growth elevated to its rightful place
  • :white_check_mark: Ambitious, yet credible
  • :white_check_mark: Supports investor communications – easy to follow and communicate
  • :white_check_mark: Serves internally as a “good threshold” metric

Cons:

  • :warning: Emphasis risk – could lead to excessive focus on growth at the expense of margin – or vice versa
  • :warning: Abstract – doesn’t directly state what different business units need to do
  • :warning: Doesn’t directly consider market situation – easy or difficult? It doesn’t say.
  • :warning: Individual years can fluctuate up or down

Adjusted EBITA is the best way for us to monitor the true performance of the business – it combines consistency, transparency, and strategic flexibility.

• It has been our metric before → consistency and comparability
• Commonly used in the industry, especially among listed IT service companies
• Better describes the core business performance, without the fluctuation of one-off items
• Allows us to make bold moves without distorting the metric
• Works in both internal management and investor communications – scalable and focused

And honestly, what interests me most is the company’s “true” performance level – and adjusted EBITA best reflects that.

Regards, Harri

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Thanks for the answer! If I didn’t know better, I might quickly think that was a ChatGPT output :smiley:

You internally use a lot more data about the company and hopefully significantly better OKRs (Objectives and Key Results) are integrated into the management system, so you don’t really need to use EBITA for that. After all, that’s just a reportable metric formed by historical reasons and by chance, not some Holy Grail of target setting.

Adjusted figures are practically always so-called cosmetic figures for communication, and they don’t bring a single euro more cash into the till compared to using conventional metrics. What I was getting at with that question was, if you decide to ‘make up’ (adjust) metrics, who are they being made up for? “One-off” items are no free lunch, and those euros are paid from the exact same account as “recurring” items.

There’s always the danger that you get what you measure. I know that some companies in the industry (grhmtietoevrygrhm) constantly move regularly recurring expenses on paper to be “one-off”, so they can be adjusted out of investor presentations. This also occurs with companies where project costs and other huge bonuses are dismissed with a wave of the hand as ‘one-off expenses’, and there’s no interest in exercising proper strict cost control for them, as they aren’t even included in the targets.

But it’s a very valid point that the use of adjusted EBITA is extremely common, and in this regard, it’s probably not even possible for you to fight against practices that have sometimes coincidentally formed in the sector. Sometimes it’s just easier and more practical to do things exactly the same way as everyone else :man_shrugging:

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Good points!

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Regards
Witted IR team :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

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Observations from the fresh owner list.

Wip funds and De La Chapelle have now completely sold their holdings in April:

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Forsby Gård (some sawmill?) has also sold off a considerable portion of its holdings:

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The Pipe Consortium also had enough:

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Mikko Mäkinen has continued his purchases:

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I have a more comprehensive list than you, which I made from the same data. :slight_smile:
Changes in the list of owners in April

Increased shareholding:

  • WITTED MEGACORP OYJ: +63,095 shares
  • HYYTIÄINEN JAAKKO KALEVI: +56,000 shares
  • SUIDA-INVEST OY: +30,000 shares
  • MÄKINEN MIKKO MATIAS: +25,000 shares
  • BEARBEAT OY: +15,000 shares
  • KOSKINEN RIKU VEIKKO: +13,111 shares
  • 4CAPES OY: +10,428 shares
  • TRICKSUITE OY: +6,797 shares
  • KOIKKALAINEN AKI-TAPANI: +4,752 shares
  • KORPI KAI JUHANI: +3,722 shares
  • LUPSAKKO MILLA SOFIA: +3,200 shares
  • ORJASNIEMI JYRKI OSKAR: +3,183 shares
  • KONTTINEN JUHA-PEKKA: +3,000 shares
  • Timo Lappi: +2,656 shares
  • Antti Mäkelä: +1,338 shares (damn, beat me by one :wink: )
  • HALLA-AHO ANO KALERVO: +1,171 shares
  • PELKONEN VESA VALTTERI: +1,050 shares

Decreased shareholding:

  • TOIVANEN CAPITAL OY: −13,806 shares
  • MIINALA MARKKU JUHANI: −4,000 shares
  • HALLA-AHO SAKU KALERVO: −1,000 shares

Removed:

  • WIP NORDIC EQUITY: removed from the list, owned 69,235 shares
  • DE LA CHAPELLE CHRISTINA SOFIA MARGARETA: removed from the list, owned 60,000 shares
  • OY FORSBY GÅRD AB: removed from the list, owned 47,200 shares
  • PUTKIYHTYMÄ OY: removed from the list, owned 24,007 shares
  • ALUTTINUM OY: removed from the list, owned 20,000 shares
  • YLIOPISTOJEN OPETUSALAN LIITTO YLL RY: removed from the list, owned 15,000 shares
  • AALTO SIMO-PEKKA: removed from the list, owned 12,098 shares

That top 100 list has also been somewhat dynamic, so someone might have slipped to the other side of 100.

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Witted launched a new business

I made a morning coffee video on this topic: https://youtu.be/COY1QoS9Ngg?si=UietwzOSrvGhqUGt

Reflections on the AI/Data theme over coffee. Since half the crowd seems to hate videos, here’s a bot-friendly version for you.

What was done?

  • A new subsidiary was established.
  • Frans Mikael spotted this already in November when a lead was being sought.
  • Now the lead has been chosen, and Mikko Kontsas is steering this business.
  • It is part of Witted Finland’s business operations.

Why a separate company?

Yes, there was a lot of deliberation about whether to just continue with this being part of our core business. We have been doing AI/Data business at Witted for a long time. Many pros and cons in establishing a new company. The pros won now, because this way we get enough attention within our own organization and momentum for our work. Additionally, I believe there will be a big competition for experts in this sector – and we want to win it.

How will business be done with this?

Four areas, all with great potential:

  1. General-purpose artificial intelligence (case: CompanyName AI)

  2. Accelerating digital development with artificial intelligence

  3. Process and task-specific AI solutions

  4. Data management to enable this

General-purpose artificial intelligence (case: CompanyName AI)

If you break those down a bit, CompanyAI (FirmaAI) projects come up weekly. They have a lot of potential and have also been done. The idea is simple: take the company’s context – for example, all documentation for a device or service – and make it easily available to employees, such as installers or customer service (..or the customer or a customer bot).

That customer service example is juicy: it has been widely discussed. Sometimes people get annoyed when they have to deal with bots – and that amuses me. In customer service, bots can genuinely serve customers, eliminating many unnecessary ‘doctor’s visits’. But perhaps an even more interesting aspect is the use case where a customer service representative has their own AI (OmaAI), with all the company’s documentation available. Still, a human-to-human interface is maintained. The customer service representative solves problems faster, but the customer feels they are receiving good service when served by a human. If a task that previously took four minutes is solved in one – a big leap in productivity occurs.

There was a discussion on this theme in February, but people often confuse Company AI (YritysAI) and process automation.

Accelerating digital development with artificial intelligence

Thomas asked in November if I was concerned that overcapacity would emerge in the IT services sector as productivity significantly increases (2x). I don’t remember what I answered, but probably the same way I think now: I don’t believe that will happen. It’s a fantastic thing that productivity grows and development accelerates – and that whets the appetite. In the future, there will be more digital services than today, and we will be increasingly dependent on technology and its experts.

Our industry has had overcapacity for two years, but that’s not due to AI. The overcapacity is because the market has been stuck for three years. Turbulence and uncertainty have led companies not to dare or want to invest – they are playing it safe. The AI & Data sector is an exception here – there is a desire to invest in it, and it is seen as generating a lot of value.

Companies have been building software for 30–40 years to run their businesses, and now all of these will sooner or later become old. They were built on the wrong paradigm – the assumption that users are humans. They were not built on the assumption that the user is an agent. These need to be either replaced or updated. A huge amount of work will be generated.

Societal perspective

Consider the productivity angle from a societal perspective. Finland has been criticized – and we ourselves too – as a failure in productivity development. Since 2008, we have stagnated. At the EU level, growth during that period has been 5%. Now there is concern that productivity is growing enormously in one sector – but that’s great news! It’s not limited to the IT services sector but spreads to all industries. The IT sector implements technology first but shares lessons and solutions with its customers. If Finland could raise productivity from level 1.0 to 1.5, many societal problems would disappear. Is it possible? Yes – and probable.

Exception: education sector

While all companies and even the public sector want to increase productivity with technology, the education sector thinks differently. The topic evokes a lot of emotions. My older daughter is in 2nd grade in Laru, and there’s a lot of discussion in connection with the school. There’s a desire to restrict the use of devices – some even suggest returning purely to a pen-and-paper model. That’s absurd. I’d like to tell the parents: you’re crazy, and you don’t really have the means to limit device usage. Our parents didn’t succeed in that in their time, and we have even fewer opportunities. Instead, we should leverage technology and teach children how to use it wisely.

3. Process and task-specific AI solutions

This is a big business. Every company has a multitude of workflows and tasks where a bot or agent is better than a human. For example, predictive maintenance – you have a physical device, such as a car or a work machine. Data is continuously collected from the device, and efforts are made to identify signs of failure. When a problem is anticipated in time, a service visit is offered. This is more of the machine learning world, and we are already further along. Many of these are being done, and you can build your own business from them.

Because these processes are company- and task-specific, there are many needs. This is close to customized software development, as services are often bespoke. Current clients of IT companies are in a situation where the lifecycle of existing services must be considered in a new usage paradigm. Where is human contact needed, and what is its role? Where is it not needed at all?

4. Data management to enable this

This is the area that is almost always messed up. The business itself isn’t new, but the problem is that companies cannot build intelligent agents if the data is not in order. A chatbot answering FAQ-style questions is Stone Age. Users immediately realize if the service doesn’t genuinely understand the situation. The expectation is that when I interact with a company or public entity, it knows who I am, what we have done, and what I need now.

Many current online services are disconnected – no connection to enterprise resource planning (ERP) or other data. They don’t recognize that the same person has been a customer before.

Examples:

  1. A TV channel advertises that you can continue watching on any device from where you left off – in 2025. C’mon.

  2. Helsingin Sanomat (Helsinki Times) is advertised to me online – even though I’ve been a subscriber for 20 years. I understand why this happens, but it’s still a waste of money. It’s assumed that online communication is for the masses. It’s not – it’s for each individual. Mass media no longer exists.

Let’s follow AIcorp’s journey from now on! Comments and questions are more than welcome.

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Dear sir Sieppi, thank you also for the reference!

How exactly is the employment structure for witted, is it full time employees and/or self employed/ freelance?

How do you see private sector employee growth going forward, generally and specifically for witted?

How big will your data/ai part of revenue be?

Cheers and all best
thomas
Lazy couch spectator

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Hello Sir Thomas :slight_smile:

Nice to hear from you.

How exactly is the employment structure for witted, is it full time employees and/or self employed/ freelance?

We have currently three models that we use:

  1. Mavericks - Full time employees: fixed salary + provisions, high level salary for senior devs. F.e. an hourly price of 90€/h and full time work gives one a salary of roughly 7.200€/month

  2. Minicorp model (piloting in Norway) - Fulltime employees: co-owned companies with consultants, also targeting senior devs with attractive salary model. It differs from Mavericks since it also includes dividends from the co-owned company.

  3. Partner ecosystem and freelancers - We have work together with small companies and a large freenlancer network. We have a slack community larger than 6000 ppl where we try to find the right partners for each project.

The idea has always been that we should think of the models as just different ways of employing ppl and making contracts. These three has been imho the best working models in the market in last 10 years.

How do you see private sector employee growth going forward, generally and specifically for witted?

Generally: I don’t know. Looks like the unemployment among highly educated people is still increasing in Finland, I think the latest estimate is that it will continue like that until summer (something I’ve heard from economists). It’s a lagging metric for the economy.

Specifically: we started to focus more on hiring late last year and during this year. We’re still hiring directly for projects and specific needs (not to bench). We’re trying to keep costs under control while also aiming to drive growth.

How big will your data/ai part of revenue be? ”It’s gonna be big. Maybe the biggest. Believe me :trumpet: :trumpet: :trumpet:

Honesty → I don’t know. It’s actually really hard to set a part what is software development revenue and what is AI or data business revenue since those are so closely linked together. A big chunk of new projects start with some kind of AI/Data angle.

Then if you think about the new Witted AIcorp, for that I have the same wish that I always have for new companies, get to 20+ asap and then figure out the way to 50 and 100 ppl. As far as the business is consulting type of business, it scales by scaling the team. Let’s hope that it starts well and scales to a decent size fast :slight_smile:

Cheers and all the best to you too :slight_smile:

Harri
Lazy Sedimented Organization Fat

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Thank you for your transparenscy and time to answer my questions!

If you had to invest in one of your peer companies, which one would you choose - and why?

Are there any competitors in particular you fear?

Kind regards and all the best
thomas

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Sorry Sir,

Can’t give you any investment recommendations. Witted has always been a challenger, so I don’t think we have had any fears regarding competition. We’ve always tried to be the one who stirs the market.

H

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Where are the April figures? Have Harri and company posted such big numbers that even the tallying takes at least a day longer than last April? According to my calculations, last year’s April figures, adjusted for working days, were released yesterday at 15:34. Gofore’s April figures were already released on Friday.

Mr Bean Waiting GIF - Mr Bean Waiting Still Waiting ...

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Well, there it came when we pushed a bit:

Revenue of €4.4 million, slightly above Franco’s estimates (€4.3 million), and the number of experts at 324 (328) fell short. Comments are positive once again.

CEO Harri Sieppi:

In April, the promising development of the beginning of the year continued. The number of experts remained largely at the same level as in March and February. Growth was pleasingly achieved in Finland. This year, Easter fell in April, which was particularly evident in Norway with long holiday periods. This temporarily reduced billable hours and the number of experts.

Revenue in April was 4.4 million euros, which corresponds to the February level. Revenue appears to be stable on a monthly basis, indicating a change in Witted’s trend. Sales are clearly ahead of the 2024 level, and new projects are starting more frequently than last year. For April, the biggest positive change is in Finnish software development. In tenders, the competition remains fierce – silver medals are still not awarded; the winner takes all.

The market is clearly already recovering, and Witted is in better shape than a year ago. Although the confusing situation with US tariffs has not directly affected Witted, it has created uncertainty. This instability also impacts Witted’s customers, which may slow down growth.

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