On average, one makes poor investment decisions if and when reacting based on preliminary reports. At least this year, this has tended to be the case. When looking 6+ months ahead, even WithSecure’s value creation potential is on a better footing.
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It doesn’t really matter where it’s sailing RIGHT NOW, the most important thing is to know where it’s sailing in 6 months, a year, and 3 years → etc.
So far, the turnaround looks quite positive, so 5% here or there today, yesterday, or tomorrow is completely irrelevant.
And ultimately, it’s not in the hands of any analyst, but everything is in WithSecure’s hands. Either it grows or it doesn’t, and I’m putting my chips on the square where WS starts to show results.
After the results, it will be easier for analysts to practically state the obvious. Right now, they don’t have anything better to say either; they are probably also in “waiting mode.”
Let’s see Q2 and what the tone is. I don’t expect anything spectacular right now; I imagine it will be a fairly basic, lively report, more or less in line.
We haven’t really picked up full speed yet, but I’m confident that things have already started moving and will gradually accelerate 
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Yeah, those daily rises/falls don’t really have any practical significance. I also invest in the company with a slightly longer-term view, but it would be nice if we had several consecutive five percent up days, then we’d already be at pretty decent values.
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I guess it will go this way, as long as we get good numbers and evidence. And precisely when, not if.
And now we’ll have to see these political effects; as the EU, Canada, Mexico, etc., I would be a bit annoyed by these 30% tariffs. And everyone knows that US technology can also be hit, or simply quietly shifted to internal EU services.
US services have a large market share. If that starts to turn, it will flow elsewhere. I’ve had a hunch for some time that in the short/medium term we will read some news about these topics.
WS also emphasizes itself very strongly as a European alternative; there’s a reason for that and a perfectly valid basis.
No one just came up with that for fun during a sauna evening while a bit tipsy.
The EU mid-market is the core of the playbook, and it’s a good strategy; there’s a hotspot and good money there. That alone will drive growth. Geopolitical shenanigans can only add to the playbook; as the world changes, there are certainly still unwritten pages.
Maybe I’m stupid and blind as a bat, but in my bubble, I see excellent potential in many different ways.
The game is already on, but we still need to be patient and constantly look 2-3 years ahead, disregarding the present, let alone reflecting on the past.
The company is maturing, the pieces are being put in place, scaling will continue, and there seems to be enough tailwind.
But as stated, this is my bubble that I believe in; it remains to be seen.
However, if it materializes… Quite juicy.
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WithSecure! No negative profit warning after all?
The quarterly report is coming next week (16.7.), and no negative profit warning has been heard. A few analysts etc. considered the risk of a negative profit warning moderate, but now it seems that we are apparently staying within the guidance? At least not far off?
With its sibling F-Secure, things went a bit differently.
Considering previous “disappointments,” this is quite a nice sign; the turnaround is progressing.
Let’s look at the numbers and outlook next week, but at least no red flags yet, and I’m not even expecting anything extraordinary for next week; only from Q3 onwards am I more hopeful about the results.
Do we still get the 5% days hoped for by the portfolio manager as well? 
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What kind of expectations do investors following WithSecure have for Wednesday? Any comments/guesses?
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Slight development is my expectation, nothing major yet.
Interestingly, in the link, though behind a paywall, there’s some doubt if the guidance would be revised.
It was just announced in the change negotiations that the guidance would be kept as is, and I would certainly find it peculiar if something were to slow down towards the end of the year; on the contrary.
Perhaps this concern is related to UK customer losses; I myself see it partly as a well-managed strategy.
No negative news has been heard, and considering all developments, it would be preferable to revise guidance upwards, not downwards
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Good ARR growth expected for CPSF and slight growth for Elements. Customer losses in managed services continue to slow down Elements’ ARR growth. I wrote about this on June 2nd when I estimated the ARR growth rate and speculated about a possible guidance update. Growth in Q1 was good, even though customers were also lost then. I need to update the calculations once the Q2 results are available.
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Well, now it’s starting to be quite certain that there won’t be any negative news at least tomorrow. And the end of the year has generally been a better time, and now especially, with a bit of hype in the air, one would think that this will turn out well.
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Key Events in April-June 2025 (“second quarter”)
- Cloud-based Elements products and services Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)1 grew by 3% to EUR 84.9 million (EUR 82.5 million)
- Cloud-based Elements products and services Annual Recurring Revenue decreased by 2% compared to the previous quarter
- Cloud-based Elements products and services Net Revenue Retention (NRR) was 99%
- Cloud-based Elements products and services revenue grew by 5% to EUR 21.5 million (EUR 20.5 million)
- Elements company’s adjusted EBITDA was EUR 0.2 million (EUR -0.8 million, adjusted figure)
- Cloud Protection for Salesforce (CPSF) product ARR grew by 54% to EUR 14.0 million (EUR 9.1 million)
- CPSF product Net Revenue Retention (NRR) was 122%
- Second quarter operating cash flow was EUR 2.3 million (EUR -2.6 million)
- Items affecting the comparability of adjusted EBITDA were EUR -2.3 million (EUR -0.5 million)
Outlook for 2025 (unchanged)
Cloud-based Elements products and services Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is expected to grow by 10-20% from the previous year.
At the end of 2024, the ARR for cloud-based Elements products and services was EUR 83.3 million.
The Elements company segment’s adjusted EBITDA is 3-7% of revenue.
Cloud Protection for Salesforce (CPSF) product Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is expected to grow by 20-35% from the previous year.
At the end of 2024, CPSF ARR was EUR 12.8 million.
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Managed security services are still severely hindering Elements’ ARR growth. In managed services, ARR decreased by EUR 5.2 million from a year ago and EUR 2.7 million from the previous quarter. A large customer was therefore lost in the UK in Q2.
The ARR for managed services is currently EUR 18.2 million. At the 2024 Investor Days, the ARR for managed services was EUR 22.5 million, i.e., EUR 4.3 million more than now. At that time, the top 10 customers accounted for EUR 7.8 million of the ARR. Could this imply that not all customer losses have been seen yet? Of course, new customers are also acquired, and they partly compensate for customer losses.
For the WS story, it would be good to stop these customer losses. The otherwise good development in Elements’ software products is overshadowed by these customer losses. When customer losses in managed services eventually stop and its ARR also achieves even slight growth, the WS story will look much better.
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Here are the initial thoughts:
The ARR development of cloud products was indeed on the disappointing side, and there’s ground to make up for the rest of the year to reach the guidance. I’ll have to ask in the earnings call what tricks will be used to get growth back on track for the rest of the year, as no particular tailwind is expected from the market situation.
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What time does the results info start? I couldn’t find it quickly anywhere.
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Good things come to those who wait: 2:00 PM
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Here are @Atte_Riikola’s first impressions also in video format. 
And thanks also to everyone who participated in Pinpoint’s prediction competition! We will go through the answers and will be in touch with the winners shortly! 
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Indeed, faith is starting to be tested here, especially when the company’s management has given positive signals, and it has now happened several times that there will be a weak earnings report. One can only hope that Koskela gives honest answers and explains more precisely where things stand when Atte interviews him. One cannot just constantly repeat that we are a European alternative, or else a departure will be imminent.
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Completely agree. The can has been kicked down the road long enough, without any visible positive business development.
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Agreed. This morning’s result was indeed a big disappointment. I wasn’t expecting any miracles, but certainly clearly better development, especially regarding the Elements software. CPSF was a positive thing, progressing exactly as it should with strong growth, but Elements’ customer retention and new sales are at a particularly sluggish level. Where is the problem? Is it on the product side, pricing, sales? Hopefully, answers will be provided in the webcast.
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Elements’ problem is customer churn from managed services, see my message earlier today. This has been happening for two years now, and I guess we are already in the final stretch regarding that. Elements’ software sells quite well and has grown 13% from last year. Regarding Elements and the guidance for the rest of the year, the ramp-up of the renewed partner channel is key, as stated in the webcast.
Edit. In managed services, customer churn is specifically with large customers. The number of customers itself also grew in Q2. Apparently, one large customer caused the most significant part of the 2.7 million euro churn in Q2.
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Here’s a look and listen at the CEO’s thoughts in Ate’s interview. 
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:14 Customer churn in the UK weighed on Elements’ development
01:52 CPSF business growth continued
03:12 Summary of the SPHERE event
05:20 Zero-day vulnerabilities
06:24 Change negotiations and cost savings
07:52 Market situation and outlook
09:18 Reaching guidance
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