WithSecure has been buying shares in recent weeks at a rate of about 15k per day, and the share price has remained stable.
Is this just short-term share price support before the Q1 results, or is there something else behind it?
How long do you think this pace can continue?
A successful Q1 report would be manna for the stock price, as would the knowledge that strategic goals are succeeding, especially the sales development of Elements. The markets still consider the companyâs own future promises completely âunbelievableâ.
If the execution is even close to the targets, the stock price will rise aggressively, but first, of course, it needs to perform.
Probably by the end of the year, we will also start getting indications of whether the companiesâ real agenda has been to break free from âUSA dependence,â in which case WS would naturally be a big beneficiary. We are living in exciting times!
Own share repurchases approved by the General Meeting for remuneration, etc.
See meeting minutes.
That ârule of 30+â was likely planned even before the US and Trump started harassing Canada and Europe.
If the tide truly turns now and the US ends up being boycotted by many, then itâs more than possible for WS to achieve that 30+.
If US military equipment is not acceptable and people are already fed up in many ways, it will also affect how well US cybersecurity services are accepted by Europe.
I donât know if Iâm just very simple-minded and stupid, but one could somewhat imagine that now the stars and moon are pretty much aligned for WS (too).
Disruptions to submarine cables add even more pressure that equipment and gear must be properly protected, so that the Sandworm team cannot wreak havoc.
I would be surprised if Q1 was far from the plan.
Hopefully you are wrong, otherwise it sounds like the beginning of a new Cold War 
Thanks, Iâll have to check â it just felt like the course has moved quite steadily.
Still a memory from a Q&A: when an audience question asked if now wouldnât be a good time to buy stocks, as the price is low, Siilasmaa replied that exactly so, but letâs buy as little as possible. 
YTD of 25.66% is pretty good growth, at least in my opinion. I understand that if one jumped into the company in 2021-2022, it might feel like quite a disappointment, as we are still far from the stock price peaks, but patience is key. The reward that looms at the turn of the decade will then be immense, and at that point, it will be harvest time, if things go even approximately as the company has indicated through its communication. And at that point, there will be no regrets about having paid âŹ1.85, wishing one had bought at âŹ0.80. The return will be excellent in any case.
It would be great to believe in this long-term âharvest,â and I truly hope that WithSecure can succeed without needing a third world war.
But belief requires evidence. So far, there has been a lot of talk, but little concrete evidence. The share price has been strictly maintained by daily purchases, not market demand. Honestly, it would be interesting to see the true value of the stock without this support.
And the timing is quite âcoincidentalâ â the purchases happen just before the Q1 results, so the real situation will only become clear then.
There is potential, but it needs to be shown, not just painted with promises.
And if Risto really said, âletâs buy as little as possible,â well, that doesnât inspire much confidence. If there was real belief in the future, then one would buy properly â not joke about it. For me, that comment left me more pondering than convinced.
Now, I guess, we just wait and see if something concrete is coming soon.
WS is an unprofitable company at the operating profit level, so Siilasmaa and the board probably donât have much room for profit distribution (incl. share buybacks). Although it would signal confidence quite nicely if they started buying back shares with both hands using debt. 
A brief write-up on this already mentioned collaboration
WSâs distributable funds were EUR 77.5 million at year-end. The balance sheet is in good condition and there is cash in hand, but WS will likely focus on transformation and growing ARR rather than profit distribution. The ongoing share buyback is related to board and management remuneration. I personally thought that this could have a positive impact on the share price, as trading volume has been quite low. However, it has had little effect.
The story has always progressed in the right direction. Of course, growth has sometimes been quite slow, which has significantly altered the valuation multiples.
There has also been turmoil in the organization when the criminal convictions related to the previous CEO were put into practice, and challenges arose in the market regarding new sales.
Often, in my opinion, Withsecure is too often confused with competitors whose main target group is MNE-class companies that make significant investments. WS, on the other hand, competes in the SME class, where the market dynamics are very different. The potential for growth is large, but customers are more price-sensitive and, in a difficult market, may postpone purchases more than large corporations.
Withsecure has been working on a turnaround at the same time that 2022-2024 has seen a widespread slowdown in the world. The economy has partly struggled like Erkki in a swamp, and companies have also seen plenty of downsizing and adjustments.
What has been, has been. The years 2025-2027 are not comparable to 2022-2024; those are already gone.
The rains can gradually give way, and itâs very possible that the sun will start shining, also on the European economy. This, including a hopefully successful turnaround, is not at all an impossible scenario.
On the contrary, I imagine it to be a more probable scenario, so whatâs there to worry about, things are going in a good direction.
The valuations and multiples will surely follow the development of the situation.
So, put on your shades and letâs enjoy the potential future returns.
It is true that the situation now looks more stable and the macro outlook may support development. But I still wonder, if a turnaround is truly underway, why isnât it more clearly visible in the sales narrative or concrete traction?
By the way, purchases coincide quite precisely with the threshold of Q1, so perhaps only then will we see where things truly stand.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-parliament-calls-end-reliance-us-software-2025-03-18/
Apparently, thereâs a risk that the Americans will take a beating here. Where will we get replacement software from 
?
I have somewhat similar thoughts and I do have faith in the stockâs future rise. What are your thoughts on how high the stock could rise in the future?
Revenue from continuing operations in the now-ended financial year was 115.1 million. If the average growth rate until 2030 was 15% per year, revenue would already be 266 million euros, in which case the EBITDA, thanks to a high gross margin, could easily be 30%. So, annual EBITDA approx. 80 million. If operations continue to be good, 12x EBITDA could be a reasonable multiple. 960 million euros could be the valuation here. Admittedly, a rather rosy assumption, but by no means impossible. This is within the middle range of the companyâs own growth targets.
What price per share would this particular scenario imply?
Iâll just ask one more time why USAâs cybersecurity services would be trusted if its military defense is not trusted, nor the insights from the link?
A European alternative is being sought, who will collect the pot?