Today, we filmed a video about Vincit with Joni. 
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Here are Joni’s comments on Vincit’s “reform projects”. 
And here is the release related to the matter:
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Vincit’s change negotiations have been concluded
Vincit announced on August 21, 2025, that it would initiate change negotiations, which have now been concluded. The change negotiations concerned the Commerce, Core, and Data & AI business functions. The negotiations primarily focused on role changes, with the aim of moving personnel from non-billable roles to billable roles and eliminating overlapping roles between business areas. As a result of the change negotiations, the employment of seven employees at Vincit will terminate.
The changes will result in estimated one-time costs of 0.1 million euros, which will be recorded as items affecting comparability in the third quarter of 2025. The change negotiations are expected to generate annual direct cost savings of approximately 0.8 million euros starting from the last quarter of 2025.
The change negotiations do not affect Vincit’s guidance for 2025 revenue and relative profitability, as reiterated in its half-year report.
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Do you have any idea why other business expenses are about double the industry’s relative average?
Joni has given his preliminary comments as Vincit publishes its Q3 results on Thursday, October 23rd.
Market weakness has particularly impacted Vincit’s previous strengths, and this year threatens to be at least as challenging as last year. We estimate Vincit’s revenue to have decreased significantly in Q3. We forecast profitability to have remained weak due to the revenue decline, despite extensive efficiency measures. It would be critical for the company to halt the revenue decline to achieve the targeted benefits from the efficiency measures. Thus, we are particularly monitoring comments on sales and cost development. Our comprehensive report on Vincit, published at the end of July, is still very timely and can be read here.
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An expected weak quarter, but as the title suggests, the bottom for the business might finally have been reached and sales have picked up. The result was still affected by a 0.3MEUR one-off item, without which the result would have met Inderes’ forecast, even though revenue decreased quite significantly.
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What is that “sales picked up” comment based on? I’m trying to find support for the claims from q-on-q and 3q-on-3q comparisons, but in my opinion, they are at zero or negative.
Not yet visible in the numbers, as the title states. Q4 will then show if it was just pretty words.
”Long-term work to develop sales is already bearing fruit, and during the review period, we have succeeded in winning new, strategically important projects.”
“We are now also winning new customers by differentiating ourselves from competitors with our expertise in AI-assisted software development.”
That last sentence is interesting, how they differentiate themselves with it. By selling cheaper when most of the code is generated and development time shortens?
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I’ll believe in a turnaround when I see it. So far, revenue (LV) and headcount have always decreased compared to the reference period, and each time the reasons given have been “difficult times,” “demand is changing,” and “a one-off item burdened the result.” It’s simply incomprehensible that the current board allows this CEO and their strategy working group to continue year after year.
It’s pointless to rely on the superiority of AI or the competitive advantages it creates; all competitors are pushing out the same stuff and are on the same playing field.
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Yeah, AI is definitely not a competitive advantage in the Finnish consulting context – Finnish companies are merely users of AI, i.e., on the buying side, in which case a competitive advantage can be forgotten. That AI should be developed, and there should be proprietary products, but currently, that’s happening in America and China, or such products simply don’t exist.
From a consulting perspective, I would say that in the long term, AI is a threat, because even a novice can achieve solutions with its help. The consulting pie shrinks.
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CEO Julius Manni was in Mikael’s interview.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:13 Q3 highlights
01:28 Revenue development
02:24 Breaking the revenue decline trend
05:24 Efficiency measures
07:10 Market outlook
09:10 “Not waiting around”
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Joni and Kaisa have diligently prepared a new company report on Vincit.
We reiterate our Reduce recommendation for the share and lower our target price to EUR 1.45 (previously EUR 1.6) reflecting forecast changes. Vincit’s revenue fell short of expectations and profitability was, as expected, weak in Q3. The company is in a difficult situation as revenue is declining sharply and efficiency measures are naturally lagging behind. It would be important for the company to get back on a growth path so that results could be put on a firmer footing and new efficiency measures could be avoided. However, no clear improvement in the market or the company’s business is yet in sight. Although the share’s valuation is not very demanding and there is potential if a turnaround succeeds, the risk-reward ratio is not currently attractive.
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Negative news coming.
**
New guidance for the financial year 2025:**The revenue for 2025 is estimated to be lower than the previous year, and the relative profitability is estimated to be lower than the previous year.
Previous guidance for the financial year 2025 (given on 20 February 2025):
The revenue for 2025 is estimated to be lower than the previous year, but the relative profitability is estimated to be better than the previous year.
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The struggle continues. The revenue accumulated from the Bilot
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True, Vincit is starting to resemble Digitalist Group in the sense that no one seems to know what the company does anymore - not even the website reveals it - and as for profitability, it’s lost, and no one seems to even care if profit actually ever needs to be made again. 
The positive thing is that the new guidance no longer needs to be changed, no matter how badly the business performs. 
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Negarin should not come as a surprise to investors; less than a month ago, Q3 results were published, and all figures lagged behind the comparison period. Inderes’ forecasts were also not met, which were below guidance, meaning also below last year’s comparison period.
The stock has low trading volume, and there’s pressure on the sell side, so I don’t see the share price developing very quickly, even if some positive news were to emerge.
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Here is a company report from Joni after the downgrade.
We lower Vincit’s target price to EUR 1.35 (previously EUR 1.45) and reiterate our reduce recommendation for the stock. Vincit issued a feared profit warning regarding profitability, which reinforces the picture of the company’s challenging situation. It would be important for the company to stabilize its revenue, but this has proven challenging, and there is no significant market tailwind in sight yet. Thus, in our view, it is critical for the company to initiate new efficiency measures to bring profitability to at least a satisfactory level. The stock’s valuation is tight, although there is potential if a turnaround succeeds, but the risk-reward ratio is not currently attractive.
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Acquisitions from Mikko Kuitunen:
96 000 pcs + 75 000 pcs + 4000 pcs
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Vincit initiates change negotiations concerning possible layoffs in accordance with the Co-operation Act. The change negotiations concern Vincit
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Frans’s comments on how Vincit is initiating change negotiations regarding possible layoffs.
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