I would like to clarify that our forecasts are quite clearly below Valmet’s target levels across practically the entire forecast horizon. In the current forecasts (excluding the acquisition of Severn Group), growth exceeds the 5% target (CAGR) in only one year. In 2030, the EBITA margin remains just over 1% and the ROCE % about 2% below Valmet’s 2030 targets, which are 15% for the former parameter and 20% for the latter. In these respects, the targets are not exceeded in our current forecasts in any single year. Valmet’s targets are indeed ambitious, and achieving our forecasts also requires sustainable improvements on both the commercial side and in cost management.
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Valmet’s targets include 5% organic growth.
Over the last three years, Valmet has made three significant acquisitions that have increased/are increasing net sales by an average of approximately EUR 235 million per year, representing 4.4% annual net sales growth.
It is likely that acquisitions will continue during the strategy period, even though they are not modeled in current analyses. If they do not continue, funds will accumulate on the balance sheet for future acquisitions.
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Valmet is a pleasant company to follow in the sense that the company shares quite clear data, even over the longer term.
For example, in the latest interim report, you can find the order intake for several years:
Or a graph of revenue going back more than a decade:
But if we reflect on, for example, Inderes’ forecasts, the targets:
So Valmet targets a 15% comparable EBITA in profitability.
In Inderes’ forecast table, we see EBITDA%, EBIT%, and comparable EBIT%. We get close, but we need to compare blood oranges to oranges.
Valmet’s target 4 years from now is 15% comparable EBITA ↔ in Inderes’ 2028 forecasts EBITDA%=15.3, EBIT%(adj)=12.8, and EBIT%=11.7. To my eye, it seems that according to Inderes’ forecasts, Valmet is at least very close to its targets regarding profitability.
A similar situation is reached with return on capital. Inderes’ data has ROE and ROI, which in the 2028 forecasts are ROE=15.7% and ROI=17.5%.
Valmet wants to use a 20% comparable return on capital employed before taxes. I understand that Valmet cannot directly influence taxes and that reflects better the business performance, but the first thought is still that the figure sugarcoats the truth when talking about “before taxes” return and even “adjusted”.
Then there’s revenue growth, where Valmet’s 5% CAGR target is easily exceeded in Inderes’ 2026 forecasts, and as a CAGR figure even with next year’s growth, we are ABOVE Valmet’s targets. Only in 2028 in Inderes’ forecasts does Valmet fall below its targets.
If we return to Valmet as an investment, when looking at consensus forecasts:
Basic good? Pretty nice performance, and the stock market can always get excited and start pricing in growth, quality, higher multiples, capital moving from US tech to Finnish engineering companies, etc. etc.
But you have to believe in very strong performance for the stock to be any kind of screaming buy and no-brainer investment.
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If you want to understand a company’s potential, for example by 2030, you need to form a view of 1) earnings per share in 2030, 2) the valuation multiple in 2030, and 3) what kind of dividend the company will pay in the coming years.
Point 1) is especially affected by revenue growth and profitability.
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Valmet continues to lead the way in the circular economy by launching Bioneer press roll covers. These new innovative covers are made from recycled, renewable, and bio-based raw materials. They allow Valmet and its customers to reduce their dependency on fossil-based raw materials.
Bioneer roll covers are designed for a wide range of press and suction roll applications in board, paper, tissue, and pulp drying machines. Recycled, renewable, and bio-based materials have been used in the roll covers without compromising on service life, wear resistance, or dewatering performance.
First roll covers with life cycle assessments
Valmet’s Bioneer press roll covers are the first covers to have undergone a product-specific life cycle assessment. This provides customers with transparent and reliable information regarding environmental impacts.
For example, the cradle-to-gate carbon emissions of Valmet Press Roll Cover PF Bioneer are 12.2 percent lower than standard products. This has been achieved by using REDcert² certified renewable and recycled materials and utilizing the mass balance approach.
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Valmet will supply automation systems to Daklo 1-3 Power Company Limited’s Daklo 1 and Daklo 3 hydropower plants, which are currently under construction in Kon Plong Ward, Quang Ngai province, Vietnam. The order was placed by Industries Equipment and Solution Company Ltd (IESC), a local partner of Valmet, which has entered into an agreement with the EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) contractor for the delivery of the systems. The mission-critical automation system will be responsible for the control and monitoring of the hydropower plants’ key processes, ensuring safe, reliable, and efficient electricity generation. Simultaneously, the system supports sustainability goals by optimizing river flow management and improving energy and operational efficiency.
The Daklo 1 and Daklo 3 hydropower plants, currently under construction, are becoming important renewable energy producers in Vietnam’s Quang Ngai province. With capacities of 12 megawatts and 22 megawatts respectively, these run-of-river plants will produce clean electricity for the national grid, strengthen regional energy production, and efficiently utilize local water resources using modern hydropower technology. The plants are expected to begin commercial operations in the spring of 2027.
The order is included in Valmet’s orders received for the fourth quarter of 2025. The value of the order will not be disclosed. Deliveries will be handed over to the customer as follows: Daklo 1 at the end of 2026 and Daklo 3 in the spring of 2027.
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Following Valmet’s results on Friday, the plan is to conduct an interview with Thomas. If the community has any question suggestions, I can consider including them in the set where possible.
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@Antti_Viljakainen Demand for paper and board machines has been depressed for a long time. Does the CEO see an increase in customer activity in that segment?
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Thank you! This is indeed a topic I intend to ask Valmet about.
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I wouldn’t want to be resistant to change, but these Bioneer products from Valmet feel exceptionally greenwashed.
I don’t know if it makes sense to force recycled material into a “press belt” just for the sake of percentage figures, when for a rubber roll costing tens of thousands, you’d really just want the best possible material.
Recycled material could be used for things like rubber boots and mudflaps etc. where an hour of downtime doesn’t cost 50,000 euros.
Clearly still the largest holding in my portfolio.
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Here are Antti’s preview comments as Valmet releases its Q4 report on Friday, Feb 6. 
We expect Valmet to have achieved its guidance for the current year, but the main focus in the report will be on forward-looking matters, namely Q4 order intake, 2026 guidance, segment market outlooks, and potential additional information regarding the Severn Group acquisition. According to our forecasts and the mainstream consensus, Valmet’s Board of Directors will keep the dividend proposal stable at EUR 1.35 per share.
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Fortunately, that’s not the case. Valmet’s pulp expertise has historically developed through acquisitions and mergers. The most important components for a pulp mill are located at various sites in Finland, Sweden, and Denmark.
It can’t really be said that the pulp expertise is specifically Swedish or Finnish.
It would certainly be good to secure those projects for a company listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange, even though some engineers are also employed locally through Andritz.
Family-owned Andritz employs ~1,600 people in Finland and 30,000 worldwide, while Valmet employs 6,000–10,000 (not public information) in Finland and 19,000 worldwide. In addition, both use subcontracting.
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At the same time, efforts could be made to shed light on the market and internal outlook of the new Tissue business area. Almost all members of its management team are in new roles, and the traditional Swedish emphasis is now almost entirely absent from the leadership team.
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Tissue now has a separate representative in the management team, though according to their CV, they don’t seem to have any experience in the industry at all. I guess they couldn’t find anyone qualified enough from Karlstad.
Damn, I emptied my trading portfolio of Valmet at 29.
Valmet has received orders from Dow to supply turnkey process analytical solutions for the company’s Path2Zero project at its Fort Saskatchewan production site in Alberta, Canada. Dow is one of the world’s leading materials science companies. The Fort Saskatchewan Path2Zero (FS P2Z) project aims to build the world’s first integrated ethylene cracker and derivatives complex to achieve net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. The project sets a new benchmark for the entire industry.
The value of the orders will not be disclosed. Engineering is currently progressing, and system deliveries are scheduled for 2027 and 2028.
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Valtion Metalli (Valmet) got its Q4 2025 figures together, a slight improvement except for orders, considering there was that “Brazilian blast” in the comparison period.
2026 revenue flat, Ebita flat or improving
October–December 2025: Comparable EBITA reached a new record: 13.3 percent
• Orders received decreased 48 percent to EUR 1,281 million (EUR 2,463 million). Organically, orders decreased 46 percent. The decrease mainly reflects the comparison period, when a significant pulp mill order worth over one billion euros was received.
• Net sales remained at the previous year’s level and were EUR 1,477 million (EUR 1,528 million).
• Comparable EBITA remained at the previous year’s level and was EUR 196 million (EUR 192 million).
• Comparable EBITA margin was 13.3 percent (12.6%).
• Earnings per share increased to EUR 0.57 (EUR 0.53). The increase in earnings per share was mainly related to lower selling and administrative overheads.
• Adjusted earnings per share increased to EUR 0.64 (EUR 0.60).
January–December 2025: Comparable EBITA margin increased to 11.9 percent
• Orders received decreased 11 percent to EUR 5,216 million (EUR 5,837 million). Organically, orders decreased 9 percent.
• Net sales remained at the previous year’s level and were EUR 5,197 million (EUR 5,359 million).
• Comparable EBITA remained at the previous year’s level and was EUR 620 million (EUR 609 million).
• Comparable EBITA margin was 11.9 percent (11.4%). The increase in the margin was related to savings brought by the operating model renewal.
• Earnings per share was EUR 1.52 (EUR 1.52). Adjusted earnings per share was EUR 1.82 (EUR 1.93).
• Cash flow from operating activities was EUR 581 million (EUR 554 million).
Financial guidance for 2026
Valmet estimates that net sales in 2026 will remain at the 2025 level (EUR 5,197 million) and that comparable EBITA in 2026 will remain at the previous year’s level or increase compared to 2025 (EUR 620 million).
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An exceptionally “boring” report. Next year promises more of the same as this year. The market doesn’t like it; it took a -10% hit and has since “recovered” to -8% at the time of writing. I consider, or considered, the company a high-quality market leader that has made acquisitions over the past few years that nicely complemented its offering. My investment thesis was that the market situation is challenging, but engineering companies are cyclical and worth buying when the P/E is high during a downturn. Valmet is testing my patience in this regard. 5 years and the return on the stock is +0.55% + dividends. Substandard. 
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CEO’s Q4 interview available on inderesTV 
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:13 Key figures of Q4
00:50 Development of different businesses
02:27 Customers willing to invest
03:47 Capital equipment order prospects
04:32 Demand outlook
05:21 Guided net sales and adj. EBITA
06:38 Leaner and more streamlined organization
08:12 Severn Group acquisition
09:38 How to achieve the financial targets
12:00 Capital allocation priorities
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Jussi Halme has made a new video about Valmet.
Can an industrial engineering company set a profitability record at the same time as orders collapse by nearly half? Valmet’s Q4 results for 2025 were full of contradictions: a historic 13.3% EBITA margin was met bluntly by market uncertainty and a shrinking order backlog. Why did the share price drop nearly 9% despite the record result? Operational efficiency vs. fading demand: Which one wins in 2026? Dividends and growth: Why is Valmet paying out nearly all of its earnings? Strategic moves: What do the Severn Group acquisition and the Lead the Way strategy mean for the investor? Valmet is not currently a story of a quick earnings leap, but an industrial giant finding its direction amidst cycles. Is the stock cheap at this price, or is the decline just beginning?
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Antti has published a new company report on Valmet following Q4.
The overall picture of Valmet’s Q4 report was slightly softer than expected regarding market-related factors, but in our view, the nearly 9% drop in the share price was still an excessive reaction. However, we slightly increased the margin of safety in our revenue and earnings forecasts for the coming years. In our opinion, Valmet’s slow earnings growth, potential for multiple expansion, and 5% dividend yield still form an expected return clearly higher than the required rate of return on a one-year horizon. Consequently, we reiterate our EUR 32.00 target price and buy recommendation for Valmet.
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