This decoupling of the correlation between GDP and population is a very interesting (potential) phenomenon. I believe that understanding this change provides a significant relative advantage for an investor in the medium and long term.
Indeed, an increasing number of economists are challenging traditional models and theories. This time, Stanford’s Trammell (together with Patell) writes quite interestingly and with solid reasoning.
Since the Industrial Revolution, 2/3 of GDP has gone to wages and 1/3 to capital income. The 4th industrial revolution is changing this—and a systemic shift is emerging that will renew/change/break A LOT! Population has mattered for wage income, but it will matter less and less in the future as wage income forms a continuously smaller portion of GDP. Meanwhile, the owners of robots, algorithms, data, and computing capacity will capture an ever-larger share of GDP. In my opinion, this is one of the greatest transformations, and it is difficult to grasp. If the development of AI and robotics continues, I believe it will lead to very interesting implications:
• Inequality between types of capital and capital owners will explode. (Much of the wealth related to AI is generated in private markets. You cannot get direct investment exposure to, for example, xAI through your pension account, but the Sultan of Oman can. An affordable detached house—the most important form of wealth for many Americans—is capital that is exceptionally poorly positioned to benefit from the leap in automation: it does not participate in the production, use, or transport of computers, robots, data, or energy).
• Inequality between nations and states will grow. International “catch-up growth” may come to an end. Poor countries have traditionally grown faster by combining their cheap labor with imported capital and expertise. When labor is no longer the bottleneck, their primary added value disappears.
• Taxation crisis / transformation: Taxing capital is futile if people can simply move their future investments to lower-tax countries. And because capital stocks can grow at a massive pace (robots building robots and so on), tax havens can quickly transform from marginal side stages to accounting for the majority of global GDP. But how can global coordination in capital taxation be achieved when the benefits of defecting are so great and easily accessible?
• Meritocracy crumbles – replaced by ownership-legitimacy? Social legitimacy will no longer be based on expertise, hard work, or education, but on ownership. Today, “You earn because you are skilled.” Tomorrow, “You earn because you own.” In this case, the crumbling of the education system would also be likely.
• The significance of states decreases as the state no longer “represents the production machinery.” Negotiating power in taxation weakens, and corporations become de facto economic sovereignties.
• The significance of democracy decreases. If income decouples from labor, then political influence no longer follows the “middle class,” and elections no longer represent the underlying power. Simply put, “democracy no longer guides the economy, but the economy tolerates democracy.”
A paper published on Monday. A New Year 2026 must-read for anyone interested in population growth and economic correlation!
Certain situations and roles practically require “inauthentic” behavior; for example, in job interviews, people behave professionally and don’t exactly advertise their bad sides, and at festivals, people let loose in an exaggerated way.
