Next Thursday, this company will also report its Q1 results, and Pauli has given his comments on it. 
We estimate the company will be able to significantly improve its revenue and profit compared to the weak comparison period a year ago. We see the direction of earnings development as positive in the big picture, but uncertainty caused by the trade war may particularly hinder decision-making among industrial customers and thus weigh on the current year’s earnings outlook.
@xlat, if you have the energy and are interested, please share some deeper thoughts on the trading here; I’d gladly read them 
I don’t own Vaisala, but the company is interesting.
I indeed used to own Vaisala (years ago), so it was already a somewhat familiar company to me. Now I invested in this quality company again, but quite soon the decision started to feel wrong after all. And wrong decisions are good to correct immediately.
The company is high-quality, but something is still bothering me about it; I can’t name one single reason, but rather it’s about the overall picture – all the pieces just don’t fit my investment strategy after all. So it’s about a very personal matter related to my investment strategy, and not that the company is or has suddenly become low-quality.
Hopefully this clarified the matter. 
Pauli’s and consensus forecasts were exceeded.
Vaisala Oyj Interim Report January–March 2025
Strong start to the year amidst increasing market uncertainty
First Quarter 2025 in brief
Financial Guidance 2025
Vaisala estimates, excluding potential material changes in the market environment, its net sales for 2025 to be between EUR 590–620 million and its EBITA to be between EUR 90–105 million.
Effective from the beginning of 2025, Vaisala has changed its operating result (EBIT) guidance to EBITA in line with its long-term financial targets.
Market Outlook 2025
The industrial market and health technology market grew in the first quarter. Similar development is expected to continue throughout the rest of the year. The power market is expected to grow. However, the market environment remains uncertain, affecting the predictability of development in these markets.
More established weather systems markets, such as meteorology, aviation, and road traffic, are expected to be stable. The renewable energy market is expected to decline this year.
President and CEO Kai Öistämö
“Vaisala’s year 2025 started strongly despite the uncertain market environment. Both our net sales and profitability improved from the previous year, and the performance of the Industrial Measurements business area, in particular, was strong. In addition, the growth of our Xweather business accelerated significantly, driven by recent acquisitions, WeatherDesk and Speedwell Climate.
Vaisala’s orders received in the first quarter were at the same level as the previous year. Our organic net sales grew by 17% without the impact of acquisitions completed in the last quarter of 2024. We were able to mitigate the impact of industrial action in Finland so that it had no effect on our net sales. Our operating profit margin improved to 13.2% with the growth in net sales. We ended the quarter with a strong order book of EUR 212.5 million.
In the Industrial Measurements business area, demand continued to develop favorably, and the quarter was strong in terms of both orders received and net sales. Positive development was seen in all geographical areas and market segments. It was particularly positive to see the continued growth of the health technology market after a challenging last year.
In the Weather and Environment business area, the first quarter was good in terms of net sales for the meteorology and aviation market segments. We continued to deliver on our strong order book. One of the highlights of the first quarter was the order we won to deliver seven weather radars and a lightning detection network to Greece. In contrast, the first quarter of the year was a disappointment in the renewable energy market. The slowdown in new renewable energy investments negatively affected both net sales and orders received in our renewable energy business. Recurring sales grew by 63%, driven by recent acquisitions and double-digit organic growth.
We also started the year with a renewed Leadership Team, with Anne Jalkala and Jarkko Sairanen in new roles, and Lorenzo Gulli and Samuli Hänninen as new members of the Leadership Team.
Looking ahead to the rest of the year, we will continue to implement our strategy as the world’s leading measurement technology company enabling climate action. The first quarter gave us a strong start to the year. However, we expect market uncertainty to continue as a result of geopolitical tensions and the risk of escalating trade wars. We are monitoring the situation and preparing for various scenarios to mitigate potential impacts on our business.
We continue to estimate, excluding potential material changes in the market environment, our net sales for 2025 to be between EUR 590–620 million and our EBITA to be between EUR 90–105 million.”
Robo-comment on Vaisala’s Q1 results:
Here is a new company report from Paul after Vaisala’s Q1.
Q1 exceeded expectations, especially with strong growth in Industrial Measurements. If the trend shown in the early part of the year continues, the company’s given earnings guidance would be exceeded quite effortlessly, but interpreting the effects of the trade war is challenging for now, and uncertainty about the continuation of industry-driven demand is high. However, at the current valuation, we believe there is clear upside potential in the stock as the company’s results improve across a broad front, supported by megatrends.
Quoted from the report:
Notable in the geographical distribution of growth was the prominent role of the Americas (growth of 61% compared to a weak reference period). The Americas’ share of the group’s revenue rose to 41% (2023-24: approximately 36%). Europe’s share was at a fairly typical level, and the share of the Asia-Pacific region decreased. We interpreted from the company’s comments that the strong demand in the Americas was not due to customers’ advance purchases before tariffs came into effect, but rather a broader continuation.
The aforementioned Norsepower Oy Ltd launched a funding round with Springvest today:
The solution is a smart rotor sail that harnesses wind to propel the ship.
Portfolio Builder has published an article about Vaisala.
Regarding market outlook, the company expects the industrial market and health technology market to continue growing during the rest of the year. The power market is also expected to grow. More established weather system markets, such as meteorology and air and road traffic, are expected to remain stable.
As a long-term growth target, Vaisala has stated it aims for an average annual revenue growth of seven percent.
The weather forecast AI model developed by Microsoft has proven to be a very accurate, fast, and cost-effective weather predictor. Source + more information: (Microsoftin tekoäly päihitti parhaat sääennustemallit | Uutisia lyhyesti | Yle)
How could this affect Vaisala’s business? I am particularly thinking of positive opportunities. Of course, negative risks always exist, and I don’t know what kind of disruption this could cause.
Microsoft’s AI model likely uses the same raw data that various weather forecasting services have used until now. That is, precisely the data obtained from Vaisala’s meteorological sensors, among others.
Thanks to AI, the analysis of raw data from Vaisala’s sensors into weather forecast models will accelerate, the accuracy of the models will improve, and they will become more cost-effective. One could imagine this increasing the applications for meteorological models. The increased demand for meteorological models would most likely lead to increased demand for Vaisala’s meteorological instruments.
How could this affect Vaisala’s own xweather service?
Integrating Microsoft’s forecast model into Vaisala’s own service could most likely increase demand for the service, as it becomes more efficient, accurate, and cost-effective.
I would like to hear a comment on this topic from an analyst @Pauli_Lohi
A press release was published today regarding Vaisala’s expansion in the Indian market. Vaisala has established a new subsidiary (Vaisala India) and is simultaneously opening a new office in Mumbai. The opening ceremony was celebrated today.
If we look at the previous situation in India, according to Vaisala’s 2024 annual report (p. 134), there is a subsidiary in India called 3TIER R&D India Private Limited. This means there has not been a proper Vaisala India subsidiary in the country. Operations have been running through the subsidiary of the 3TIER company, acquired in 2013, which originally focused on serving customers in India’s wind and solar energy sectors.
From Indian registers, Vaisala India Pvt Ltd was found, at least in Mumbai, which was established last year. https://www.indiafilings.com/search/vaisala-india-private-limited-cin-U46909MH2024FTC426428
Growth in India has now also been achieved in other sectors. In the press release, Berndt Köhring, Vice President for APAC, Industrial Measurements business area at Vaisala, states that the Asia-Pacific region is a key market area for industrial measurements, and significant growth has been achieved there over the years.
The press release mentions that Indian operations have more than doubled between 2018 and 2024. “Thank you to our esteemed partners in India for your unwavering efforts and dedication, which have been instrumental in propelling our business to more than double its growth from 2018 to 2024.”
In India, Vaisala’s three key growth areas are:
Enhancing precision and compliance in life sciences
• Vaisala’s continuous monitoring systems ensure Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) compliance, data integrity, and precise facility control in the pharmaceutical industry, biotechnology laboratories, and cleanrooms.
Optimizing battery safety and efficiency
• Vaisala’s dew point and humidity sensors optimize moisture-sensitive processes in electric vehicle battery production, improving performance and safety.
Ensuring excellence in semiconductor and electronics manufacturing.
• Vaisala provides advanced vacuum, humidity, and cleanroom monitoring solutions for semiconductor fabs and electronics contract manufacturers, ensuring yield optimization, static electricity control, and process integrity.
AI is already part of meteorologists’ toolkit. No weather forecast model works without high-quality measurement data. The physical basis does not change, and AI cannot bypass these boundary conditions. Weather is chaotic, meaning small errors in the initial state can very quickly grow into large errors in the predicted outcome.
Therefore, I would not consider the development of meteorologists’ tools a negative risk, at least. AI, if anything, specifically needs data.
Here is a link for those interested to the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s column on the use of AI in the field: Tekoäly kirittää säänennustamista - Ilmatieteen laitos
A few highlights from management comments and other observations related to the AI theme.
Said at CMD
At the CMD presentations last autumn, AI was discussed quite little. Jarkko Sairanen, Director of Weather and Environment, spoke more broadly about AI, describing the change it brings in his presentation.
Sairanen stated that Vaisala is able to offer comprehensive solutions to its customers, and through this, Vaisala can differentiate itself from its competitors.
Paradigm shift. Vaisala can tailor distinctive products for customers:
Vaisala has benefited from the AI transition:
The CMD did not mention Vaisala’s need to collaborate with top experts in AI development. This is, of course, self-evident, as Vaisala’s own expertise is not sufficient in generative AI, and Vaisala is dependent on the support of AI companies.
Silo AI and Intel
Vaisala has not talked much about the importance of Silo AI. The only broader source on the topic is a blog post published by Silo AI on its website in April 2023 about its collaboration with Vaisala. The joint development project between Silo AI and Xweather teams focuses on producing hyperlocal weather information.
When did the collaboration between Vaisala and Silo AI begin? The Xweather service was launched in autumn 2022, so development work must have already been underway before the launch. In any case, collaboration has been ongoing for several years, as the partnership is based on Intel technology.
Comments from the Head of Digitalization
Developing customer-centric, tailor-made comprehensive solutions requires time and resources. One of the key individuals in resource management is the Head of Digitalization and IT, Girish Agarwal, who started at Vaisala last year. In an interview with Tivi magazine in September 2024, Agarwal outlined his primary responsibility as “supporting the company’s digital development” and “adopting data- and AI-driven business models.”
Vaisala’s and AMD Silo AI’s collaboration may have continued. AMD Silo AI published its fourth annual Nordic State of AI report in March 2025. The publication also included a short interview with Girish Agarwal (pages 14-15). In the text, Agarwal provides a few examples of how Vaisala utilizes AI, but nothing is mentioned about the use of AI in creating hyperlocal forecasts.
WeatherDesk Team
With the acquisition of WeatherDesk last year, Vaisala seems to have gained significant expertise. In December 2024, Pauli Lohi wrote in his comment that Vaisala aims to achieve growth synergies through the acquisition with a broader product portfolio and weather data understanding.
The acquisition announcement stated that WeatherDesk was a “pioneer in AI-based weather forecasting.” This pioneering role has also been discussed by Vaisala’s Scott Mackaro, who spoke at the Green Things Summit in April. Unfortunately, the presentation recording is not available, only a summary of the main points. Green Things Summit 2025: https://iotmktg.com/green-things-summit-2025/
One key point states that WeatherDesk accelerates AI-powered forecasting.
“Data-Driven Growth: How Vaisala’s acquisition of WeatherDesk is accelerating AI forecasting and hyperlocal solutions for critical industries.”
With the acquisition of WeatherDesk, Vaisala appears to have gained a lot of AI expertise. At the same time, it has also gained new insights into developing subscription-based data and software offerings. The deal transferred a team of 34 employees led by Travis Hartman to Vaisala, who, based on LinkedIn information, appear to have experience in areas such as high-performance computing.
P.S.
XWeather and WeatherDesk flashed on Fox5NY last week.
The news story (https://www.fox5ny.com/video/1644535) reported on ConEdison’s investments in its electricity distribution network. The story showed a picture of ConEdison’s control room, where the Xweather service was running in the background, and WeatherDesk’s storm forecast was open. WeatherDesk has been fully integrated into Xweather since March 24.
I recently discussed this topic with Vaisala’s management. I interpreted their message to mean that artificial intelligence (or machine learning, whatever one wants to call it) is a very useful technology for creating customized weather forecasts for customers, also from Vaisala’s perspective. They were not particularly concerned that AI would accelerate competition. It is in the interest of large AI companies (e.g., OpenAI, Google, etc.) to promote their own technology and may therefore create demos showing how AI helps in weather modeling. However, it is highly unlikely that they themselves would undertake the groundwork required to sell customized solutions to various customers. Small startups related to weather data can be found especially in the United States, but these existed even before the latest AI boom.
Apologies for the delay in my response! I was away from work for a couple of weeks.
The Finnish Automation Society is organizing a webinar series on the significance of automation technology in the green transition. Vaisala’s Teppo Kuisma participated in the May webinar, and his presentation focused on Xweather’s renewable energy production forecasting and forecast accuracy.
At the beginning of the presentation, Kuisma stated that Xweather currently provides forecasts to approximately 900 energy producers and approximately 600 trading, insurance, and energy consumption customers operating in the energy markets.
Kuisma mentioned that the first hydrogen producers have also joined the customer base.
Regarding the accuracy of Xweather’s energy forecasts, the accuracy for the next hour’s power forecasts is 95%, and for the next day’s forecasts, 92% accuracy is achieved.
Kuisma also revealed Xweather’s recipe for forecast accuracy. It uses 9-10 global forecast models as a base, on top of which the final model is built using deep learning. This way, the system can learn the weather behavior of a specific power plant’s area using collected training data.
With this recipe, for example, in regional forecasting in Finland, Xweather’s forecast is 3-4 percentage points more accurate than Fingrid’s power forecast.
A couple of notes on hydrogen production.
Vaisala is a member company of the Finnish H2 hydrogen cluster. Vaisala Oyj - h2cluster.fi
The hydrogen cluster also includes P2X Solutions, which recently opened Finland’s first industrial-scale green hydrogen production plant in Harjavalta. P2X could potentially be an Xweather customer.
Finnish power-to-x research is now gaining new momentum with the opening of three new Power-to-x laboratories at LUT University. Fortum, Danfoss, UPM, and Vaisala, among others, have been involved in financing the project, which could also provide opportunities to network with hydrogen producers. → Power-to-X infrastructure | LUT University
Today, Vaisala’s list of largest shareholders has been updated again. Link: https://tools.euroland.com/majorshareholder/sf-vai/?showexternal=1&page=majors&view=msb&lang=1&date=2025-06-30
No major changes on the list. The number of shares in SEB’s, OP’s, and Evli’s small-cap funds has increased, and Ålandsbanken’s small-cap fund’s shareholding is decreasing.
For the past three months, the combined ownership of nominee-registered and non-Finnish owners has been in a significant decline. The three-month decline ended this June, and ownership turned to a small increase of +0.38%.
When reading shareholder lists, it is naturally unknown whether shares are in share lending. Nominee-registered owners, fund portfolio managers, and others tend to lend out their shares when the opportunity arises, which makes it appear on shareholder lists as if the shares are being traded. Even the aforementioned changes in funds could very well be share lending and returns of borrowed shares, and no actual share trades have been made.
In any case, Vaisala’s share price turned downwards in February 2025 from the 54 euro level, and at the beginning of April, the price reached the 40 euro level. At the same time, according to the ownership statistics, the combined ownership of nominee-registered and non-Finnish owners decreased by 10.9% (over 969,000 shares).
Below the summary link is a list of monthly statistics for nominee-registered and non-Finnish owners from 2019-2025.
Vaisala Oyj - Nominee-registered and non-Finnish ownership
Vaisala’s foreign ownership development can be monitored on Vaisala’s website from the sector table of the shareholder list under nominee-registered and non-Finnish shareholders. The same figure can also be found in Euroclear’s monthly foreign ownership tracking table, which is also published on the first days of each month.
| Date | Amount | % | Change (pcs) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.12.2018 | 5 718 980 | 15,70 % | -39 831 | -0,69 % |
| 31.1.2019 | 5 616 603 | 15,42 % | -102 377 | -1,79 % |
| 28.2.2019 | 5 546 957 | 15,22 % | -69 646 | -1,24 % |
| 31.3.2019 | 5 564 473 | 15,27 % | +17 516 | +0,32 % |
| 30.4.2019 | 5 590 074 | 15,34 % | +25 601 | +0,46 % |
| 31.5.2019 | 5 644 259 | 15,49 % | +54 185 | +0,97 % |
| 30.6.2019 | 5 637 544 | 15,47 % | -6 715 | -0,12 % |
| 31.7.2019 | 5 644 297 | 15,49 % | +6 753 | +0,12 % |
| 31.8.2019 | 5 640 471 | 15,48 % | -3 826 | -0,07 % |
| 30.9.2019 | 5 703 893 | 15,65 % | +63 422 | +1,12 % |
| 31.10.2019 | 5 736 244 | 15,74 % | +32 351 | +0,57 % |
| 30.11.2019 | 6 032 044 | 16,56 % | +295 800 | +5,16 % |
| 31.12.2019 | 6 387 474 | 17,53 % | +355 430 | +5,89 % |
| 31.1.2020 | 6 406 030 | 17,58 % | +18 556 | +0,29 % |
| 29.2.2020 | 6 421 480 | 17,62 % | +15 450 | +0,24 % |
| 31.3.2020 | 6 379 623 | 17,51 % | -41 857 | -0,65 % |
| 30.4.2020 | 6 367 550 | 17,48 % | -12 073 | -0,19 % |
| 31.5.2020 | 6 417 282 | 17,61 % | +49 732 | +0,78 % |
| 30.6.2020 | 6 443 643 | 17,69 % | +26 361 | +0,41 % |
| 31.7.2020 | 6 592 409 | 18,09 % | +148 766 | +2,31 % |
| 31.8.2020 | 6 653 515 | 18,26 % | +61 106 | +0,93 % |
| 30.9.2020 | 6 665 796 | 18,29 % | +12 281 | +0,18 % |
| 31.10.2020 | 6 968 264 | 19,12 % | +302 468 | +4,54 % |
| 31.11.2020 | 6 981 994 | 19,16 % | +13 730 | +0,20 % |
| 31.12.2020 | 7 023 294 | 19,28 % | +41 300 | +0,59 % |
| 31.1.2021 | 7 101 128 | 19,49 % | +77 834 | +1,11 % |
| 28.2.2021 | 7 072 574 | 19,41 % | -28 554 | -0,40 % |
| 31.3.2021 | 6 942 967 | 19,06 % | -129 607 | -1,83 % |
| 30.4.2021 | 6 938 845 | 19,04 % | -4 122 | -0,06 % |
| 31.5.2021 | 6 960 269 | 19,10 % | +21 424 | +0,31 % |
| 30.6.2021 | 6 972 710 | 19,14 % | +12 441 | +0,18 % |
| 31.7.2021 | 6 984 029 | 19,17 % | +11 319 | +0,16 % |
| 31.8.2021 | 6 997 435 | 19,21 % | +13 406 | +0,19 % |
| 30.9.2021 | 7 085 568 | 19,45 % | +88 133 | +1,26 % |
| 31.10.2021 | 7 144 291 | 19,61 % | +58 723 | +0,83 % |
| 30.11.2021 | 7 264 123 | 19,94 % | +119 832 | +1,68 % |
| 31.12.2021 | 7 344 011 | 20,16 % | +79 888 | +1,10 % |
| 31.1.2022 | 7 554 522 | 20,73 % | +210 511 | +2,87 % |
| 28.2.2022 | 7 545 002 | 20,71 % | -9 520 | -0,13 % |
| 31.3.2022 | 7 534 597 | 20,68 % | -10 405 | -0,14 % |
| 30.4.2022 | 7 499 496 | 20,58 % | -35 101 | -0,47 % |
| 31.5.2022 | 7 672 787 | 21,06 % | +173 291 | +2,31 % |
| 30.6.2022 | 7 666 295 | 21,04 % | -6 492 | -0,08 % |
| 31.7.2022 | 7 676 786 | 21,07 % | +10 491 | +0,14 % |
| 31.8.2022 | 7 696 810 | 21,12 % | +20 024 | +0,26 % |
| 30.9.2022 | 7 676 005 | 21,07 % | -20 805 | -0,27 % |
| 31.10.2022 | 7 668 293 | 21,05 % | -7 712 | -0,10 % |
| 30.11.2022 | 7 626 106 | 20,93 % | -42 187 | -0,55 % |
| 31.12.2022 | 7 747 078 | 21,26 % | +120 972 | +1,59 % |
| 31.1.2023 | 7 756 679 | 21,29 % | +9 601 | +0,12 % |
| 28.2.2023 | 7 755 711 | 21,29 % | -968 | -0,01 % |
| 31.3.2023 | 7 767 473 | 21,32 % | +11 762 | +0,15 % |
| 30.4.2023 | 8 055 021 | 22,11 % | +287 548 | +3,70 % |
| 31.5.2023 | 8 069 224 | 22,15 % | +14 203 | +0,18 % |
| 30.6.2023 | 8 228 654 | 22,58 % | +159 430 | +1,98 % |
| 31.7.2023 | 8 106 622 | 22,25 % | -122 032 | -1,48 % |
| 31.8.2023 | 7 938 044 | 21,79 % | -168 578 | -2,08 % |
| 30.9.2023 | 7 906 510 | 21,70 % | -31 534 | -0,40 % |
| 30.10.2023 | 7 853 567 | 21,55 % | -52 943 | -0,67 % |
| 30.11.2023 | 7 858 842 | 21,57 % | +5 275 | +0,07 % |
| 31.12.2023 | 7 862 005 | 21,58 % | +3 163 | +0,04 % |
| 31.1.2024 | 7 880 127 | 21,63 % | +18 122 | +0,23 % |
| 29.2.2024 | 7 855 642 | 21,56 % | -24 485 | -0,31 % |
| 31.3.2024 | 7 798 709 | 21,40 % | -56 933 | -0,72 % |
| 30.4.2024 | 7 751 169 | 21,27 % | -47 540 | -0,61 % |
| 31.5.2024 | 7 748 173 | 21,26 % | -2 996 | -0,04 % |
| 30.6.2024 | 7 895 800 | 21,67 % | +147 627 | +1,91 % |
| 31.7.2024 | 7 928 447 | 21,76 % | +32 647 | +0,41 % |
| 31.8.2024 | 8 222 872 | 22,57 % | +294 425 | +3,71 % |
| 30.9.2024 | 8 458 642 | 23,21 % | +235 770 | +2,87 % |
| 31.10.2024 | 8 565 506 | 23,51 % | +106 864 | +1,26 % |
| 31.11.2024 | 8 631 532 | 23,69 % | +66 026 | +0,77 % |
| 31.12.2024 | 8 709 942 | 23,90 % | +78 410 | +0,91 % |
| 31.1.2025 | 8 833 958 | 24,25 % | +124 016 | +1,42 % |
| 28.2.2025 | 8 872 815 | 24,35 % | +38 857 | +0,44 % |
| 31.3.2025 | 7 903 126 | 21,69 % | -969 689 | -10,93 % |
| 31.4.2025 | 7 784 534 | 21,36 % | -118 592 | -1,50 % |
| 31.5.2025 | 7 772 003 | 21,33 % | -12 531 | -0,16 % |
| 30.6.2025 | 7 801 694 | 21,41 % | +29 691 | +0,38 % |
From the 2019-2025 list, three longer-lasting periods of ownership increase stand out, during which the ownership of non-Finnish and nominee-registered owners grew continuously on a monthly basis. The first growth period was after the corona crash, the second in 2021, and the third growth period from June 2024 to February 2025.
In March 2025, there was a larger decline in the ownership of nominee-registered and non-Finnish owners, when Trump’s tariff talks caused concerns in the markets. That March decline in foreign ownership was the largest measured during this decade. Previous large declines were experienced in August 2023 and March 2021.
The decline in ownership that began in March continued for three months. The increase experienced in the second half of 2024 was followed by an almost equally large decrease, which was exactly -3.02% (1,100,812 shares). Vaisala’s share price already turned upwards at the end of April. Now, foreign ownership is again at the levels of early 2024, at 21.4 percent, but the share price is 10 euros higher than at the beginning of 2024.
Here are Euroclear’s statistics for the past 15 years. The 21 percent level has become a floor in recent years. The level below 20 percent was exceeded in November 2021.
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Changes have also occurred regarding other owners.
In May 2024, Vaisala’s major shareholders converted their shares into A-series shares, increasing the number of A-series shares by 3 million and decreasing the number of K-series shares by 3 million. In this context, the Finnish Academy of Science and Letters converted all its K-shares into A-shares. Inderes’ comment on the topic: https://www.inderes.fi/analyst-comments/vaisalan-suuromistajat-konvertoivat-osakkeitaan
After that conversion, the Finnish Academy of Science and Letters held 1.8 million A-shares, but currently it holds less than 700,000 A-shares. Thus, its ownership has decreased significantly, and the academy has fallen to position 12 on the shareholder list.At the same time, over a 1.5-year period (January 2024-May 2025), household ownership has remained at the same level, even though, according to Euroclear statistics, the number of Vaisala owners has grown by over 2,000 shareholders. Some of them skillfully timed their purchases during the April price dip.
Household ownership:
Number of shareholders
There has been no change in the ownership share of companies and financial and insurance institutions compared to early 2024. A big change has occurred in public sector ownership, which has risen to 8.01%, compared to 4.2% in February 2024.
Many changes have occurred recently, but nothing significant in the big picture. The share price is once again approaching the 50 euro mark, and the share’s return for this year is therefore -0.1%.
Here are Pauli’s preliminary comments as Vaisala releases its Q2 figures on Friday.
Our forecasts assume revenue growth and EBITA remaining at the strong comparison period level, supported by e.g. acquisitions. We estimate that the demand environment has developed relatively favorably, especially compared to the high uncertainty related to the trade war that still prevailed at the time of the Q1 report. We see the company’s guidance and consensus estimates as cautious in relation to the current demand environment, so earnings development could exceed expectations in the latter half of the year.
Now, expectations were certainly missed:
Second quarter 2025
Orders received EUR 124.1 (147.2) million, decrease 16%
Order book at period end EUR 200.9 (196.9) million, increase 2%
Revenue EUR 145.0 (148.4) million, decrease 2%
Operating result (EBITA) EUR 19.6 (25.4) million, 13.5 (17.1) % of revenue
Operating result (EBIT) EUR 16.9 (23.7) million, 11.7 (15.9) % of revenue
Earnings per share EUR 0.30 (0.49)
Cash flow from operations EUR 14.4 (7.7) million
CEO Kai Öistämö writes in the report (p. 4) that the challenging situation in the renewable energy market and the seasonality of project deliveries negatively impacted the second quarter’s net sales. A decrease of 2%.
Orders received decreased due to weak demand in the Weather and Environment business area.
|Vaisala|<a\u003eQ2’24|<a\u003eQ2’25|<a\u003eQ2’25e||
|—|—|—|—|—|
|MEUR / EUR|Comparison|Actual|Consensus|
|Net sales|148.4|145.0|152||
|Gross margin-%|57.0 %|54.5%|56.3 %||
|EBITA|25.4|19.6|-|
|Operating profit|23.7|16.9|21.1|
|EPS (reported)|0.49|0.30|0.40|
||||||
|Net sales growth-%|13.5 %|-2.2 %|2.7 %||
|Operating profit-% |15.9 %|11.7 %|13.8 %||\
Consensus from Inderes’ earnings forecast (consensus includes 7 analysts)
In the report (p. 4), Öistämö writes that continuous order sales were the highlight of the quarter in the Weather and Environment business area. He also warns in the report that additional trade policy measures and weakening currencies could significantly impact Vaisala’s performance. If the risks do not materialize, Vaisala’s management expects the positive development of the Industrial Measurements business area and Xweather’s continuous subscription-based business to continue.
Development of continuous subscription sales for weather data
|||||
|—|—|—|—|
|Continuous subscription sales |Net sales|Change y/y|Organic growth|
|Q2/2025|13.2|53 %|11 %|
|Q1/2025|15.3|63 %|12 %|
|Q4/2024|11.8|30 %|18 %|
|Q3/2024|9.2|18 %||
|Q2/2024|8.6|16 %||\
Weakness at Group Level in APAC Region and Strong Development in Americas Region
|Net sales by region|<a\u003eQ2’2025|<a\u003eQ2’2024|<a\u003eFY2024|
|—|—|—|—|
|Americas|39.3 %|33.9 %|35 %|
|APAC|24.6 %|32.7 %|30.6 %|
|EMEA|36 %|33.3 %|34.2 %|\
The Americas region has shown strong development in terms of net sales.
According to the report, growth in the Industrial Measurements business area was particularly strong in terms of orders received in the APAC region, driven by positive developments in the industrial and power markets.
In terms of net sales, growth in industrial measurements was due to strong development in the Americas region, but EMEA and APAC also performed well compared to the previous year.
While all regions performed well in industrial measurements, development at the group level in the APAC region is now weak in terms of net sales. The decrease in net sales for the Weather and Environment business area is primarily attributed to the weakness in the renewable energy market. Net sales also declined sharply in the aviation and road traffic markets.
Industrial Measurements Business Area
The business area continued its strong performance. According to the report, the quarter was very good in terms of orders received, net sales, and profitability. Net sales grew by 10% compared to the previous year. At comparable exchange rates, net sales grew by 11%. The growth was due to strong development in the Americas region. The gross margin percentage was 62.8%, a decrease from the high 64% level of the comparison period. According to the report, fixed costs increased compared to the previous year, mainly due to investments in digital sales channels.
Weather and Environment Business Area
Orders received decreased by 32% compared to the previous year. The order book is still strong, and 60% of it (98.4 million euros) is scheduled for delivery during the current year.
Today’s result might have been a bit soft, but in the big picture, no major drama was seen. However, orders showed quarterly fluctuations, and, for example, data services saw impressive growth. We filmed fresh initial comments with @Pauli_Lohi today for a video, and we’ll hear about the valuation in connection with the upcoming company report! 
Vaisala, which reported a weaker-than-expected Q2, suffered particularly from slower sales of wind lidars due to the weaker market situation in renewable energy. However, strong development was seen in data services, and this segment is becoming an important growth engine for Vaisala with good margin potential. Analyst Pauli Lohi discusses Vaisala’s development in the early part of the year and the future potential of data services.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:17 Weaker-than-expected Q2
02:00 Good demand for industrial measurements
02:30 Xweather becoming a new growth pillar
03:28 Weakness in the renewable energy market is temporary
04:41 Dip in new orders
06:10 Outlook for the rest of the year
Good summary of Q2 in Inderes’ video.
In the audiocast, Kai Öistämö also elaborated on the renewable energy situation and highlighted reasons for the weaker quarter.
Öistämö reminded that the second quarter of last year was very strong. The strength of Q2 was partly explained then by a weak first quarter. During Q1’24, operations were affected by the ERP system renewal and labor disputes, which led to revenue shifting to Q2. Thus, Q2’24 was very strong.
Öistämö stated that growth in the industrial measurements business area continued in all geographical regions and all market segments. Regarding the weather and environment business area, the wind power market has slowed down, and demand has significantly decreased in Vaisala’s strong market areas in the USA, Central Europe, and Japan.
Öistämö reminded that the meteorology market had benefited for two years from the COVID recovery fund, which provided support for renewing meteorology networks. As an example of this, he mentioned Spain’s order for 18 weather radars from the previous year and Greece’s order for a weather radar and lightning detection network from this year. In addition to these, many other smaller orders from Southern European countries. Now, the support brought by this fund to the market is over.
Öistämö also reminded that China is in the final year of its current five-year plan (2021-2025), during which investments in meteorology have typically been at a lower level. According to him, this is typical cyclicality.
The gross margin of the weather and environment business was weakened not only by the decrease in revenue but also by a larger share of project business, so the sales mix was now less favorable.
Öistämö stated in the audiocast that the construction of the Vantaa logistics center has been completed. Now the center’s equipment is being installed, and according to Öistämö, the logistics center is expected to start operations as previously stated in the second half of this year (by the end of the year).
In the Q&A session, questions were asked by analysts from SEB, Inderes, Evli, Carnegie, and Danske.
Öistämö stated that cuts by the US National Weather Service and NOAA have postponed some investments that were expected for this year. Ongoing projects have not been stopped.
According to Öistämö, there has been no change in the competition in the renewable energy market; everything is entirely explained by market weakness. The first signs of weakening in the renewable energy market began to appear in the second half of the previous year. Öistämö did not expect the market to recover this year. The analyst asked about variations between market areas. According to Öistämö, demand has slowed down in all market areas.
An analyst from DNB Carnegie asked about the cyclicality of China’s 5-year plans. The last year has generally been softer, which is explained by normal variation. Vaisala has a local partner in China, so no changes are needed in that regard. There are local competitors in China, but no significant change is in sight.
An analyst from SEB asked about the impact of US public sector cuts on continuous subscription sales (52:50). Öistämö directly denied seeing the cuts affecting continuous subscription sales.
Vaisala has now been able to compensate for the effects of import tariffs with price increases and expedited deliveries. Cost management is also planned to compensate for the decrease in sales, but Öistämö promised to elaborate on them during the Q3 audiocast, as the measures are still in the planning stage (at 55:20 min in the recording).
At the end of the audiocast (57 min), there was a discussion about local competitors of Vaisala benefiting from tariffs. According to Öistämö, local competitors may not necessarily benefit from potentially imposed tariffs. Especially when a competitor’s production is based on Chinese components or part of the assembly lines are located in Mexico, tariffs could hit the competitor harder than Vaisala.