United Bankers - Real Asset Manager

Interesting answers. It seems that the intention is not really to participate in the best projects or to maximize the fund’s ability to put capital to work by acquiring ready-to-build phase projects from others, but at least for now, to act as a kind of feeder fund for the massive land mass of the main forest fund. Thus, with UB’s internal business logic, it clearly makes sense to get involved in hugely risky development projects, even on a smaller scale and through long, multi-year permit processes, but if I were a fund investor, I would think twice about participating in that fund.

The project development phase is extremely capital-light, as money mainly goes to salary costs, and returns for the fund only appear on paper when the company itself estimates the value of its own projects has increased as permit processes progress. Since permit processes in project development are slow, costs are fixed, and the business is highly scalable, UB should be a bit more ambitious and grow its 1,000 MW project portfolio to the 5,000 MW - 10,000 MW range, but since it seems absolutely necessary to use only their own land areas in Finland, and there simply aren’t enough suitable development projects there, what can you do :man_shrugging:

With wind power, it can easily take five to seven years from the start of a project before the first euro of revenue hits the account, and for this reason, all competing funds aim to join projects only in the final stage, when the project is ready-to-build and the capital-intensive phase begins. Industrial-scale solar power and battery projects, on the other hand, can be launched more quickly, which is why they have become more common, reaching new record levels in recent years at the expense of wind power.

Finland has (almost) the cheapest electricity in Europe, and this is by no means the optimal country for a fund to build new production capacity, because consumption does not scale up quickly enough compared to new production. It’s easy to refer to Fingrid’s strong forecasts to justify consumption growth, but this is a company with a regulatory task and a duty to prepare for the most extreme consumption scenarios. Now, if this or the next government hits data center investments hard with additional taxes and other hostile measures, and the hydrogen economy doesn’t materialize, we could easily end up in a situation where no new electricity production is profitable. Then one would nicely get to write down those paper profits from projects when no counterparties for PPA agreements can be found. Of course, one could then be involved in the data center business or on the consumption side and thereby create demand for one’s own electricity, but that turns into quite a bit of fiddling instead of seeking out places (like Germany or Italy) where the most profit can be made from renewable investments :cowboy_hat_face:

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