Here is a company report from Thomas following the Q4 results 
The main features of Tulikivi’s Q4 report were already known due to the profit warning issued in February. We have slightly lowered our growth forecasts for the coming years, driven by the sluggish Q4 order flow, although we recognize that the recent rise in consumer energy prices is a potential demand driver for fireplaces. In our view, the share price is pricing in an unnecessarily strong earnings turnaround; as a result, we reiterate our sell recommendation and target price of EUR 0.38.
Quotes from the report:
Financial targets updated to 2030
Tulikivi updated its financial targets in connection with the Q4 report. The company is still targeting revenue of EUR 50 million and an operating profit margin of over 12%, but the target year was moved from 2027 to 2030. The company’s growth target relies heavily on the new Jero fireplace collection and the sauna product category, through which it aims for a total revenue of approximately EUR 15 million. In recent years, the company has done significant work to promote its exports, which is not yet reflected in the figures due to the effects of pulled-forward demand. The company’s goal is to increase the total number of retail outlets for fireplace exports from the level at the end of 2023 (330 outlets) to 500 outlets by the end of 2026. At the end of 2025, the number of outlets was already around 460, which is nearly on target. We are eyeing the environm
1 Like
Here are Thomas’s pre-match thoughts, as Tulikivi reports its results on Friday
We expect the company’s revenue to remain at the level of the comparison period, but the seasonal loss to have deepened slightly as a result of the sales mix and cost inflation. In our estimation, Tulikivi’s demand environment remained muted during the seasonally weak review period, which is highlighted by a smaller order backlog at the turn of the year compared to the previous year. On the results day, our attention will be particularly focused on management’s comments regarding the demand outlook and the development of order flow in a challenging market situation.
1 Like
One would assume that domestic sales took at least a slight hit due to the news coverage regarding the Russian business operations.
Based on my understanding, official permits for electric heaters in the USA and Japan are still pending, so there won’t be any help for revenue from there in Q1 yet. Hopefully, the permits are obtained ASAP.
It would be good to hear from the company regarding the progress of expanding sauna heater sales channels in Europe, along with more detailed information on revenue and its development.
Regarding the talc project, the situation is intriguing, and the licensing authority’s decision will likely be made before autumn. Whether someone will appeal remains to be seen. The probable utilization of magnesite will significantly improve the mine’s profitability, if AI is to be trusted.
2 Likes
Here is a company report from Thomas following Tulikivi’s Q1 report
Tulikivi’s revenue exceeded our expectations, driven by export revenue turning back to growth. Despite the recovery in exports, the order intake contracted from the previous year, leaving work to be done to reach guidance. In our view, the valuation of the share appears challenging due to the pressurized earnings performance, leaving significant expectations reliant on the speculative realization of the talc project’s value. We reiterate our sell recommendation, but raise our target price to EUR 0.40 (prev. EUR 0.38) driven by forecast changes.
Quote from the report:
Balance sheet position has become tight due to weakened earnings performance
At the end of Q1’26, Tulikivi’s net debt stood at EUR 12.3 million, and the gearing ratio was 77%. Relative to the last 12 months’ EBITDA, net debt was at a very high level of 6.7x, which limits the company’s investment capacity and underscores the pressure to strengthen earnings performance and the balance sheet position. Despite the weak result at the beginning of the year, net cash flow from operating activities settled at a slightly better level than the comparison period at EUR -0.6 million (Q1’25: EUR -0.8 million), supported by released working capital.
3 Likes
Here is Tulikivi’s 2020s post-COVID era well-summarized:
“In our view, the stock’s valuation looks challenging due to the pressured earnings performance, leaving significant expectations reliant on the speculative realization of the talc project’s value”
In plain English and layman’s terms:
The core business and its products simply cannot achieve enough growth and margins to keep food on the table. Peace of mind and faith in financial security rest solely on the plans to sell off the backwoods. What kind of farmer and master is that? I’m just asking.
3 Likes
I personally do not believe in significant (over 20%) growth in the fireplace business over the next 3 years.
In contrast, there is substantial growth potential in the sauna business, though it will require work and time. The products are good, and there is a solvent customer base abroad for heaters that are more expensive than average. Approvals for Japan and the USA are still pending.
The talc business is not just “selling off the backwoods,” as the most likely scenario is that Tulikivi will remain a significant owner in Nordic Talc Oy. According to current understanding, magnesite is not just a side stream, but will be a second main product. In this case, the utilization rate of the mined ore, excluding waste rock, would be 75–80%.
Today is the last day of the public notice period for the permit application. My understanding is that it is not so much a question of whether the permit will be granted, but rather the stringency of the permit conditions. In the best-case scenario, the permit decision will be made by the end of June, including a permit to start preparatory measures despite any appeals. If things progress according to these steps, the company will announce the financing for the project before the autumn colors shine in Suomussalmi.
Personally, I find it difficult to call this “logging the backwoods,” but everyone makes their own assessments, and the above is not an investment recommendation.
1 Like
It is bulk sales of slowly renewable or non-renewable raw materials. It is not innovative value creation, which the company has not been able to achieve effectively.
By the way, where is the internet’s Tulikivi spammer?
3 Likes