Here are Thomas’s preview thoughts as Tulikivi reports its results on Friday. 
Tulikivi’s profit warning was not a particularly big surprise, given the weak demand environment in the fireplace market and the soft performance of the business in the first half of the year. Our forecast changes focused mainly on the current year’s figures, and the profit warning does not have a significant impact on our view of the company’s normalized earnings power at this stage. However, due to the forecast changes, the stock’s valuation must seek support points from our uncertain 2026 forecasts, which keeps the stock’s risk-reward ratio weak in our eyes. We reiterate our target price of EUR 0.40 and our Reduce recommendation.
Quoted from the report:
Tulikivi provides guidance for the current year of EUR 33-37 million in revenue and EUR 2-3 million in operating profit. The guidance predicts a clearly weaker performance than the comparison period, but we remind that the entire industry has enjoyed exceptionally strong demand since 2021. Between Q3’23 and Q2’24, Tulikivi’s total order intake was EUR 30.6 million, so achieving the guidance requires an acceleration in new sales during the remainder of the year. As Tulikivi’s new sales are typically weighted toward the end of the year, seasonality combined with the German BImSchV regulation creates, in our view, the conditions for reaching the guidance. However, we do not believe the guidance leaves room for the demand environment to weaken further from current levels.