Today, there are no other trades than RKT stocks and autumn calls, and more broadly, Homebuilder stocks/calls. There are plenty of ITB calls for October, almost all of which are now In The Money. The entire sector is on fire, and the best payday of the year has already been secured. In addition, silver made new highs, and trades on it have been closed.
EDIT: Very strong rise with high volume throughout the day. ITB is now at MA200 (daily), and I closed the first calls at $102.15. This is slowly starting to look like a rotation into the homebuilders sector, and in the coming days, we will be watching to see if we get follow-through.
EDIT2:
RKT bullish flow for the rest of the evening. Now 120k 19 Call 15.8.25.
If homebuilders start to recover, itâs possible that the chemical sector, which has been practicing potential bottoming patterns in recent weeks, could get a boost. The entire sector is relatively cheaply valued, and several companies are, in my opinion, just bottoming out/have bottomed out. Possible stimulus from China could also provide support, as could, for example, interest rate cuts. Our relatively cheaply valued Kemira is also included. This sector is under close observation for the rest of the year and could be a target for rotation:
Iâm buying XLV. I expect about 8-9%. Also Russell 2K long. I expect about 2.5-3% in the coming days.
Edit
Exiting XLV. Although it looks technically okay, United Health (UNH), which has a 5% weighting in the index and is facing significant difficulties, and also the largest weighting, Eli Lilly (LLY), has not yet reported Q2. Russell 2K looks good. Edit end.
Long Costco. I expect at least +8% and +10% if it rises steadily. Technically, the stock looks good, but from a fundamental perspective, it doesnât look cheap.
Edit 25.8 I close EURUSD, loss 0.2%. I continue long gold and Telenor.
Edit 22.8. I buy gold at 3415 (fut. dec 25) and EURUSD at 1.1730. Edit end
Walmartâs report today was a disappointment, and Costcoâs Q2 is still coming. The entire market seems to be in correction mode. The risk is too high, so I close long Costco with a 0.2% loss. I continue with Telenor. Below is a chart of the entire telecom sector, i.e., Stoxx Telecom 600 (ETF).
âLong Costco. I expect at least +8% and +10% if it rises calmly. Technically, the stock looks good, but from a fundamental perspective, it doesnât look cheap.â
Nebius reached the $110 target faster than expected, and today the price target was raised by Northland a bit more significantly from $77 to $206. Stock now $110.06
The most interesting stocks to follow today so far are QURE (+158% @$35.40) and CLPT (+34% @$16.30), which are up after uniQureâs positive news.
This is a relatively significant (preliminary) positive news in the field of neurological gene therapy, so Iâm watching to see if a potential dip from the open becomes a trading opportunity, or if the stockâs strength continues. Iâm especially following CLPT, where I have a small position and which I added to slightly in premarket right after the news. I believe that after potential profit-taking, 14.xx could be a good re-entry point. Itâs also possible, of course, that the stocks will remain strong all day, so option flow and price action are also being monitored. This is a purely speculative trade, but at the same time, great news for medicine.
EDIT: Iâll also add my own longer-term targets, which are $19, $22, and $25++, and for now, I consider more significant dips as buying opportunities.
EDIT2: In CLPT, the first $19 target for the day was almost reached (peak $18.86). The stock still has strong momentum, so significant dips are buying/scalping opportunities for me probably for the rest of the week (depending, of course, on options/price action).
I am selling EURUSD (stopped at cost price) and holding Telenor. Post-critique: I should have raised the EURUSD stop-loss significantly above the cost price.
Here are the bets opened this week and some from last week, a small portion of which have also been on hold for about a month. All the bets below have been closed for now, and I was long on them at some point during this week (I was short on only a few).
I usually open a long position if significant calls flow into the stock and/or when the technical setup also supports a potential rise, and I close the position quickly when the target is reached, a clear catalyst disappears, or the stock does not behave as expected. For example, in the case of CIFR, I ultimately did not see yesterdayâs âsignificantâ deal as particularly positive relative to expectations/valuation:
In the positions below, I am still long with at least a few longer-dated call options and/or stocks. Most of these saw positive option flow today and have not yet been closed. Nebius, Rocket Co., Robinhood, Mirion Technologies, GXO Logistics, Clearpoint Neuro, and silver bets in various forms also belong to the longer-term (swing) portfolio. For UniQure (QURE), the target is at least around $70-75. For example, RKT saw millions of dollars worth of October-expiring $21-23 calls flow in during the day, and the stock found support yesterday and today around $18.90.
From the top list, you can see how quickly even good stocks dip when big playersâ option targets are reached, the stock hits resistance, negative news is received, and/or a temporary catalyst disappears. Many of these stocks would not fit into a longer-term portfolio, but due to large movements, they offer interesting trades.
The long-term trend looked good at the time of purchase but the stock has not had time to perform as expected before the Q3 earnings report, which is due tomorrow. Technically, however, the picture has not changed, so I may return to it later. Other operators also offer technically interesting targets, e.g., Orange and Telia (cf. Elisa). The chart below, extending far back into Orange SAâs history, shows how the debt-driven telecom bubble related to the Internet bubble burst in the early 2000s.
