TransMedics’ transplant data for the first three months of the year. Looks very good. Below are the images from the tweet. The stock has been strong given the market’s performance in recent days, but based on technical analysis, strong resistance levels are still ahead.
Below is a tweet about how analyst Matt O’Brien raised TransMedics’ price target from $90 to $105.
The tweet states that TransMedics is revolutionizing the organ transplant market in the long term, which could significantly increase the stock’s value. 
https://x.com/medtechmd/status/1917180406656540854
Strong results came in, confirming that flight data collected by Twitter handles accurately predicts revenue.
REVENUE BEAT 
$143.5M vs $123M exp.
EPS BEAT
$0.70 vs $0.24 exp.
GUIDANCE INCREASED 
$565-585M vs prior $530-552M
Indeed, an excellent earnings report, which was already expected. The pace has only accelerated in the first half of Q2, with an average of 27.8 flights per day. At this rate, Q1 flight volumes will be exceeded by 20%, i.e., a 20% quarterly growth in flight volumes. Using Q1’s revenue per flight average, Q2’s result would be ~166 million dollars.
Transmedics announced Fidelity exceeding a 15% ownership stake https://investors.transmedics.com/node/10506/html, which cannot be considered a bad sign.
Q2 is done, time to look at flight data. During the last quarter, TMDX’s aircraft made a total of 2406 flights, which means growth of ~14%. April was a record month, with May and June being good, but not quite at the same level as the first month of the quarter. As it looks, Q2 revenue will fall somewhere between 164-170 million dollars (vs. analysts’ forecast of ~147mUSD). Using the lower end of this estimate, H2 generated 306.5 million dollars in revenue. Even if Q3 and Q4 had zero growth, the guidance given by management would still be clearly exceeded.
Q3 has generally been the weakest quarter, and last year revenue decreased q/q. I would consider it a great win if the q/q revenue development in Q3 was 0%. I expect an upward revision of guidance in connection with the Q2 report.
Another strong result. Not quite as large as calculated based on flights, but excellent EPS and guidance raised.
Slightly corrected from the AI (Grok) summary report:
TransMedics’ Q2 2025 Financial Results:
Total Revenue: $157.4 million, 38% growth from Q2 2024
Net Income: $34.9 million, 22% of revenue, compared to $12.2 million in Q2 2024
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.92, compared to $0.35 in Q2 2024
Gross Margin: 61%, same as Q2 2024
2025 Revenue Guidance (raised): $585–605 million, up from previous $565–585 million, representing approx. 35% growth year-over-year
The earnings call was also quite interesting and clear (especially when compared to, for example, Musk’s tired ramblings). The most interesting aspect for future growth, in my opinion, is the expansion into kidney transplants and Europe. According to the call, approximately 45% of the world’s organ transplants are performed in the EU. Additionally, there was talk of a new randomized lung transplant study that has received FDA approval.
"Two, deliver on our OCS platform pipeline of OCS Kidney, followed by Gen 3 OCS platform for heart, lung and liver. three, expand our entire U.S. OCS NOP clinical and logistics team to meet the growing demand and minimize bottlenecks. four, position ourselves to capitalize on any opportunities stemming from the national modernization initiatives. And finally, we are strategically exploring select geographical expansion opportunities. This entails evaluating the potential for replicating the successful OCS NOP across several European countries. It has become increasingly clear that there is a significant interest for TransMedics to replicate our U.S. success outside of the U.S., including the dedicated transplant logistics network in European countries.
We are thrilled by this potential. And as we always say internally, if TransMedics doesn’t do it, who would? Based on the above, you can see that we are not slowing down."
“We’re aiming at a total sample size that will exceed 450 DBD and DCD donor lungs that will be randomized between our next-gen OCS Lung platform versus cold, controlled static storage that is currently the standard of care.”
The main reason (my own expectations) for lower revenue was that TMDX’s own aircraft accounted for a larger share than before. In the call, Waleed said that 79% of flights performed by TMDX were carried out with their own aircraft.
Profitability exceeded all expectations. The company has now made 1.62 USD EPS during the first two quarters, while the consensus for the full year was 1.79 USD when the Q2 report was released. Revenue grew by 38% y/y, while operating costs increased by only 5.6% y/y. The margin development is probably also due to the larger share of internal flights, but still a truly significant improvement (and a positive surprise).
The guidance increase was expected. Q3 flight volumes have been weaker than earlier this year, so raising guidance at this point is an excellent signal from management.
The European markets highlighted by @makee1, and especially the FDA approval for “OCS 2.0”, were also very positive news. The company has had job postings related to this new research on LinkedIn for a month now, so the FDA approval didn’t come as a complete surprise. Revenue from OCS 2.0 has not been included in the guidance, so it could bring additional growth if it can be commercialized already this year.
In connection with the Q2 report, TransMedics announced it had received “Investigations Device Exemption (IDE) approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration” to initiate Next-Gen OCS Lung tests (trial). IDE = “permits a device that otherwise would be required to comply with a performance standard or to have premarket approval to be shipped lawfully for the purpose of conducting investigations of that device.”
Yesterday, Monday, more good news arrived, that TransMedics received the same IDE approval for their Next-Gen OCS Heart trials. TransMedics Receives FDA IDE Approval to Initiate Next-Generation OCS Heart Trial | TransMedics
https://twitter.com/HedgeVision/status/1953922219664351428 The company’s CEO bought $2 million worth of the company’s shares in the last couple of days. Absolutely, the increase is not significant compared to the CEO’s total ownership ($56 million), but it’s a strong signal to the market. The last insider purchase occurred in 2023.
A direct comparable/competitor to TMDX from the UK was acquired for 1.5 billion. Based on the tweet above, the valuation multiples were clearly higher than TransMedics’ own. It will be interesting to see how the stock price reacts in the coming days.
Here are some interesting highlights concerning the company, which are, of course, at least partly familiar to those who have followed the company closely, but probably not to everyone. 
The tweet’s claim that TransMedics’ aircraft alone handle nearly 80% (referring to “covered 79% of NOP flight missions using TMDX owned aircrafts”) of all organ transplant missions in the United States is incorrect. That 79%, mentioned in the Q2 report, only concerns TransMedics’ own flights. This means that 21% of flights used third-party (more expensive) charter aircraft. Of course, I could be wrong about this.
Regarding transport methods, the company’s CEO revealed yesterday at an industry conference organized by Morgan Stanley that 40% of TransMedics’ organ transplants are done by land. Previously, the figure was around 30%. In practice, the reliability of tracking flight volumes for revenue forecasting decreases. However, for the sentiment surrounding the stock, flight volumes are still important. Flight volumes were weaker than expected during the summer months, but September has started very strongly, and the rest of the year is also expected to be strong.
At the conference, the CEO also mentioned a target of 20,000-30,000 organ transplants in 2030. Previously, the longer-term goal was 10,000 in 2028.
Below is a tweet regarding TransMedics’ CEO’s appearance at the Baird healthcare conference, which confirmed the tweeter’s confidence in the company.
Reportedly, their technology is revolutionizing organ transplants; procedures can now be scheduled rationally, which improves care and saves costs. Additionally, the company is already a market leader in liver and kidney. The growth potential is also enormous – especially internationally.
The tweet states that although the service is expensive, it brings overall savings.
“Today we’re seeing our centers doing two, three, sometimes four for a large-volume center and doing them between seven in the morning and seven at night. That is huge, huge value. And the hospital administrators are recognizing it.”
https://x.com/WealthyReadings/status/1966905919830106345
The company’s internationalization is progressing. An agreement was made in Italy with Mercedes for the construction of vehicles suitable for ground transport of organs. These would be used in four different cities that have an NOP center. The centers would be operational by the end of this year.
Q3 results out. Revenue 143.8mUSD (+32% y/y) practically in line with forecasts, and EPS (0.66USD) almost double the forecasts (0.36USD). Revenue guidance for this year was also refined, with the lower end raised by ten million to 595-605mUSD (previously 585-605mUSD). Revenue weaker than expected, but profitability again a significant positive surprise. Initial market reaction a solid -12% on the board, a surprisingly negative reaction. I eagerly await the earnings call’s content.
A tweeter points out that the analyst was previously a staunch skeptic of TMDX and was also lukewarm toward Abiomed’s technology, but now this analyst considers TransMedics’ service revenue targets to be achievable—citing, for example, growing transplant and flight volumes (medical jet fleet), while rising market share supports Q4, etc.
I haven’t been following the company for a long time myself, but the price reaction to the last earnings report and the overall slide from $150 → $60 is quite wild, considering the fundamentals are still at a good level. Profitability in Q1 was weak as expected, missing analyst expectations by a cent. Why such a collapse, even though the figures mostly matched expectations and the 2028 and 2030 organ transplant volume targets were maintained? Those targets are 2x and 4-6x compared to last year’s figures. What if those numbers are reached? At these levels, the stock is a screaming buy!
