# Tesla - The leading car manufacturer of the future? (Part 2)
**URL:** https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871
**Category:** Osakkeet
**Tags:** tesla
**Created:** [December 2, 2023, 2:16pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871 "2023-12-02T14:16:10Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 247
### Author:  [@skuuppia](https://forum.inderes.com/u/skuuppia)
#### Post date: [October 27, 2026, 8:44pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5609 "2026-10-27T20:44:14Z")
Meta-discussion about Trumpisms, fallacies, and quoting etiquette doesn’t really advance the investment discussion, so I will only respond with this one message. This commenter’s posts have often referenced accident videos (e.g., crashing into guardrails) and expectations about what will happen to FSD once a couple of months have passed since the April approval in the Netherlands. This is a continuation of a long-running discussion; back in 2022, for example, people were already debating how FSD causes dangerous crashes and how Waymo/Cruise/Mobileye are light-years ahead. This narrative is most consistently pushed on X by Dan O’Dowd, who demands that FSD/Robotaxis be banned based on various videos.
Some might like the Inderes forum style of quoting and dissecting comments, tossing in personal insults, and piecing old posts together into a narrative, but I personally find that posting style disruptive and prefer to write full paragraphs. That way, the thought and the narrative stay coherent. I could point out a similar forum narrative regarding Tesla’s car sales forecasts: cars are outdated → competitors overtake. Elon’s X feed is disgraceful → no one wants to buy a Tesla anymore, etc.
If these narratives are straw men, you are free to flag the posts using your own expertise, and there’s no need to take this meta-discussion any further. As I already stated, this will be my last post regarding this meta-topic.
---
### Author:  [@Beconi](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Beconi)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2026, 5:14am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5610 "2026-10-28T05:14:52Z")
> [@skuuppia](#):
>
> Wasn’t the narrative supposed to be that as Cybercabs increase, there will be such a shocking number of crashes due to poor sensors and inadequate HW that permits will be revoked across all states, and FSD permits will be completely rejected in European countries too?
> [@skuuppia](#):
>
> A meta-discussion about Trumpisms, logical fallacies, and quoting policy hardly advances the investment discussion, so I will only reply with this post.
If the intent of that first message was to address some previously raised argument, it is very reasonable to expect that you would quote it directly in your response. Other forum members can’t read your mind and automatically know which post you are referring to. If you don’t quote it, your post sounds more like a counterargument against the consensus of almost the entire forum, and in that case, it would be a straw man.
There’s no point in playing the victim regarding condescending language if your own posts carry the exact same tone. To avoid this kind of meta-discussion, it’s worth considering things from the reader’s perspective as well. The easiest approach is to quote the post directly, which you still haven’t done.
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### Author:  [@Gold](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Gold)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2026, 10:31am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5611 "2026-10-29T10:31:13Z")
An interesting observation:
Tesla’s Q1–Q3 earnings: 2.0
Porsche: 1.7
I’ll leave it as homework to compare the market caps of the companies and think about whether there is any sense left in the investment world.
Answer:
There isn’t. Tesla is valued at the level of other tech giants, even though its earnings are on par with a niche sports car manufacturer in the lightweight division.
Tesla market cap 1600
Porsche 24
and profit is pretty much the same
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### Author:  [@Kasleew](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Kasleew)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2026, 11:38am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5612 "2026-10-29T11:38:49Z")
> [@Seinakadun\_Keisari](#):
>
> How about we wait for Tesla to deploy its unsupervised robotaxi at night before we even start talking about any kind of race?
Do you seriously consider nighttime driving to be some kind of fundamental flaw/obstacle that Tesla can’t solve, or why do you keep bringing this up?
> [@Seinakadun\_Keisari](#):
>
> Tesla will only enter the same league once it gets permits to operate in California
And what kind of yardstick is this? California probably has the highest concentration of Teslas in the US, and there is no indication that FSD wouldn’t perform just fine there as well, whether day or night. A year ago on this forum, people were leaning on the FSD tracker and were so certain it could never drive autonomously without incidents. Well, now it’s driving autonomously, and it seems to have gone pretty well, right? Austin is starting to become a one-to-one comparison with Waymo in terms of both fleet size and geofence, so it’s a great basis for comparison.
It’s fascinating to watch how the goalposts keep moving and the yardsticks keep changing as Tesla’s fleet grows larger than Waymo’s, yet “they’re still not in the race.”
> [@Gold](#):
>
> Tesla is valued on par with other tech giants, even though its profits are on par with a niche, boutique automaker.
You must be relatively new to following Tesla, and a high P/E is a fair observation when it comes to Tesla. However, it has been “elevated” for quite a long time in Tesla’s history, so you can’t really draw any major conclusions about the future from it. Therefore, there’s no real need to bring it up constantly, as you’ve done in quite a few posts now.
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### Author:  [@Gold](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Gold)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2026, 12:58pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5613 "2026-10-29T12:58:50Z")
I didn’t write anything about the P/E ratio in the message I quoted; instead, I compared the market cap to other tech giants, meaning it’s in the same ballpark. In terms of P/E ratio, Tesla is about 10 times more expensive as a stock.
And this is an investment forum, so it’s quite logical that stock returns are highlighted.
Throughout history, these excessively high P/E multiples have always corrected one way or another at some point (usually the hard way). Granted, this is unprecedented in terms of scale and company size. A P/E of 400 makes sense for some micro-cap that has a major sure thing in the pipeline and priced in, but not yet reflected in earnings, like a drug. But it’s an entirely different story for a company that already generates massive earnings, and in this case, there is no evidence yet (not even with Waymo) that, even if successful, the business in question would be profitable enough to justify this P/E.
Right now, of course, it strongly looks like Musk will manage to hide Tesla inside SpaceX before the final truth comes to light.
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### Author:  [@Jarnis](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Jarnis)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2026, 1:16pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5614 "2026-10-29T13:16:23Z")
A huge amount of expectations is baked into Tesla’s stock price regarding how robots and self-driving cars will change the world in the longer term, and hardly anyone really cares how car manufacturing makes money today, as long as it doesn’t make a loss.
In addition, the share price is currently supported by the fact that it seems pretty much a done deal that SpaceX and Tesla will merge at some point, and this would require SpaceX to pay a premium to current Tesla shareholders. Why sell such a “sure thing” other than with a short-term trade in mind, if it’s clear that the jackpot is in sight? One could even say that if you want to buy SpaceX shares, buy Tesla, because that premium to be paid for a potential merger will be taken out of the hides of SpaceX’s current owners 🙂
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### Author:  [@Gold](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Gold)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2026, 1:23pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5615 "2026-10-29T13:23:54Z")
I wouldn’t be so sure about a premium. It gets really expensive at these valuation levels. It’ll probably be engineered as some sort of merger of equals. At this rate, Tesla is already starting to need more cash, and SpaceX has plenty of investments to make as well.
It’s obvious that a P/E of 400 is driven by expectations, but are they going to materialize, on what timeline, will Tesla be the one skimming the cream off the top, and what will their profitability even be? To me, it looks like every single one of those questions casts massive uncertainty over this case, yet success is already priced in.
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### Author:  [@Kasleew](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Kasleew)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2026, 1:28pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5616 "2026-10-29T13:28:20Z")
> [@Gold](#):
>
> Obviously a P/E of 400 is driven by expectations
Why on earth do you come to this forum to compare Tesla and Porsche, then? These are completely different companies. And then you go on to conclude that the investing world makes no sense.
> [@Gold](#):
>
> but will they materialize, on what timeline, will Tesla be the one skimming the cream off the top, and what will their profitability even look like?
I think a lot of people would actually be interested in hearing about precisely these things rather than your constant harping on P/E ratios. On the other hand, this forum is peculiar enough that I could be wrong about that.
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### Author:  [@skuuppia](https://forum.inderes.com/u/skuuppia)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2026, 1:36pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5617 "2026-10-29T13:36:36Z")
> [@Gold](#):
>
> for example, Tesla’s ridiculously high P/E ratio.
> [@Gold](#):
>
> big promises from previous projects won’t cut it. P/E 300
> [@Gold](#):
>
> (P/E 300), so from an investment standpoint, it doesn’t matter. Tesla’s stock is relatively 10 times more expensive
> [@Gold](#):
>
> what would need to happen for a company with a P/E ratio of 300
> [@Gold](#):
>
> what does the earnings figure matter if the P/E is hovering in the hundreds, meaning the market valuation is from another planet
> [@Gold](#):
>
> the P/E would be at least on par with the other Mag 7 companies
> [@Gold](#):
>
> to earn that P/E of over 300 down to a reasonable level
> [@Gold](#):
>
> The company’s P/E ratio is over 300.
Over this past half-year, you’ve really internalized the P/E ratio and repeated it endlessly on the forum, even though Tesla has had a high valuation for 5 years now. This same message and the idea that “the situation will correct itself soon” have been repeated on the forum by many others as well, yet far fewer have actually stepped up to short it.
Perhaps Amazon’s cloud earnings surprise in 2015 was a lesson for the market, whereas before that, the high P/E was driven merely by e-commerce expectations. In addition to robotaxis, Tesla has other disruptive businesses in the pipeline. Was AWS’s disruption a sure thing, and was there “hard evidence” of it in the market beforehand? After all, data centers (like taxis) have been around forever.
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### Author:  [@Gold](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Gold)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2026, 1:36pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5618 "2026-10-29T13:36:47Z")
The companies aren’t that different, given that both currently generate most of their revenue and earnings from manufacturing and selling cars.
This is quite an interesting observation, especially considering that if you follow the media, Porsche is constantly reported on as a company in crisis, while Tesla is somehow portrayed as a uniquely profitable automaker. This comparison reveals the reality quite well: Tesla has fallen back to being an ordinary automaker, albeit one that still carries these expectations.
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### Author:  [@Kasleew](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Kasleew)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2026, 1:54pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5619 "2026-10-29T13:54:36Z")
> [@Gold](#):
>
> This comparison reveals the truth pretty well, which is that Tesla has fallen back to being an ordinary automaker, albeit one where these expectations still exist.
So in other words, Tesla is an ordinary automaker that just happens to do extraordinary things, which is where these extraordinary expectations come from. Or what were you trying to say?
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### Author:  [@skuuppia](https://forum.inderes.com/u/skuuppia)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2026, 9:48pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5620 "2026-10-29T21:48:48Z")
Approval for FSD or TAD is gaining more and more support from EU countries. Earlier in September, German Minister Steffen Bilger was already positive about the approval, and now Italy’s Minister of Transport Matteo Salvini has also announced support for the project.
_Italy is looking with great interest at the opportunities offered by assisted driving technologies, with a focus on innovation and road safety, and supports a swift EU approval of Tesla Assisted Driving._
These, along with the 10 countries that have already approved it, provide a solid foundation for the potential TCMV vote in December. Even though Germany and Italy would be large enough countries to deploy FSD on their own, more votes in favor are still needed for EU-wide approval.
[https://x.com/matteosalvinimi/status/2115720560994836862](https://x.com/matteosalvinimi/status/2115720560994836862)
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### Author:  [@Seinakadun\_Keisari](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Seinakadun_Keisari)
#### Post date: [November 6, 2026, 12:14pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5621 "2026-11-06T12:14:46Z")
_TESLA TO END CYBERTRUCK PRODUCTION IN MAJOR AI PIVOT_
Elon Musk announced Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production by mid-2027, freeing capacity at Gigafactory Texas for Cybercab robotaxi production.
The Cybertruck fell far short of Tesla’s 250,000 annual sales target.
US sales dropped 48% in 2025 to just 20,237 vehicles, with another 38% decline through September 2026.
Tesla is now doubling down on AI-powered autonomous driving as its next major growth opportunity.
[https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2118674943445532941?a=gbPXL6JxrbROFDZ3Md8&s=20](https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2118674943445532941?a=gbPXL6JxrbROFDZ3Md8&s=20)
This was foreseeable a long time ago
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### Author:  [@Jarnis](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Jarnis)
#### Post date: [November 6, 2026, 1:39pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5622 "2026-11-06T13:39:15Z")
And it’s a completely logical move considering the demand for the model. I suspect they’ll try again at some point with a less “cyber” version, since the market for this type of car in the US is huge after all. You don’t always get it right on the first try. Developing a new model naturally takes a few years, and they’ve hardly had much time to lay the groundwork for it yet.
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### Author:  [@Kasleew](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Kasleew)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2026, 6:34am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5624 "2026-11-11T06:34:21Z")
TAD to Finland:
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### Author:  [@Paapaa](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Paapaa)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2026, 7:38am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5625 "2026-11-11T07:38:25Z")
Here is another article from HS (no paywall) regarding the approval of TAD in Finland:
> **Finland** has approved carmaker Tesla’s driver assistance system, which has been described as a “self-driving” feature.
>
> The Finnish Transport and Communications Agency, Traficom, announced in a press release published on Wednesday that it had made the decision on the matter on Tuesday. As a result, Tesla can start offering the system in Finland immediately.
>
> In the press release, Traficom refers to the [conditional type-approval](https://www.hs.fi/visio/art-2000011933832.html) previously granted by the Netherlands.
>
> According to Traficom, the EU is expected to decide on EU-wide approval of the system during the winter. Finland is introducing the system sooner partly because it provides Finnish Tesla users with the opportunity to familiarize themselves with the system just before the harshest winter conditions set in, Traficom explains.
> **[Autoilu | Suomi hyväksyi Teslan ”itsestään ajavan” järjestelmän](https://www.hs.fi/visio/art-2000012403270.html)**
>
> Traficom muistuttaa, että ajaminen on aina kuljettajan vastuulla.
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### Author:  [@Sissos](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sissos)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2026, 8:20am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5626 "2026-11-11T08:20:24Z")
Class action lawsuit in the Netherlands by HW3 drivers. When will it start in Finland?
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### Author:  [@evilK](https://forum.inderes.com/u/evilK)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2026, 11:38am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5627 "2026-11-11T11:38:19Z")
> [@Sissos](#):
>
> Class action lawsuit by HW3 drivers in the Netherlands. When will it start in Finland?
Finnish consumers have no rights. Under the 2007 law, the Consumer Ombudsman could file a class action lawsuit, but hasn’t done so even once in 19 years because it would pose a _cost risk_.
It’s easier for us HW3 drivers to just bite the bullet and trade in for a new car if we really want FSD. Rumor has it that HW5—newly rebranded as AI5—is coming in 2027 and should once again be far more powerful in terms of AI compute and memory capacity. I’m guessing that high prices and poor availability of GPU chips and DDR memory are the reasons the new version hasn’t entered production yet, even though it was originally promised for this year.
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### Author:  [@Sissos](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sissos)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2026, 2:08pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5628 "2026-11-11T14:08:45Z")
FSD is on a 2020 car. Back then, things were promised that haven’t materialized. It must be possible to transfer it from an HW3 car, or else the price should be refunded. Those who still hold the stock naturally disagree.
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### Author:  [@Kasleew](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Kasleew)
#### Post date: [November 12, 2026, 5:40am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/tesla-tulevaisuuden-johtava-autovalmistaja-osa-2/44871/5629 "2026-11-12T05:40:45Z")
> [@Kasleew](#):
>
> > [@Seinakadun\_Keisari](#):
> >
> > How about we wait for Tesla to actually deploy its unsupervised robotaxi at night before we even start talking about any race?
>
> Do you seriously consider nighttime driving to be some sort of fundamental flaw/obstacle that Tesla can’t solve, or why do you keep bringing this up?
Well, that didn’t take long:
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