Technical Analysis (No Questions)

[dzei]

Since we are in the TA thread anyway, as previous commenters noted, that is not a C&H but rather a normal Trend Change.

On the daily chart, you can see a classic consolidation at the bottom, which often occurs at bottoms, and from there, momentum started building upwards (I). Additionally, gaps (II) are often visible at these pattern confirmations. I’m not such a guru to know for sure what causes that (not just from Trump), but presumably algos. Most often, if you wait for the pattern to confirm, you’re already too late.

[TraderHanski]

Well, I admit it was only a C&H form :), it bounces between Fib.Ret. levels but is climbing upwards quite nicely.

In Traton SE stock, the Free Float is small, only 12.47%, and there are “too” few tradable shares on the market, so the price movement is large daily, or how to explain that briefly, in any case, that Free Float has a big impact and in both directions.
VW only recently sold about two percent of shares to the market to increase trading in the stock and is still the largest owner.

[Lexus]

Telia.

• Touch to the upper edge of the rising channel (green) today.
• Likewise, at the upper levels of the falling channel (drawn from previous peaks to the peak).
• RSI cautiously indicates a decrease in buying interest – quite a few touches to that line already behind us.
• According to wave theory, rising wave number 5 is underway.

Today, it moved from my long-term portfolio to cash.

[Lexus]

SmartEye. The stock finally got a breakout - and the weekly trend is now upward.

But where to set the target, and the blue sky version?

A bit high-flying.

[Clark_kent]

@Lexus

blue sky -version?

In swings, I gradually sell a stock that makes an ATH and close when it goes back below the daily 10ma or 20ma, but it would be interesting to hear other methods.

[Lexus]

Tecnotree. Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, but a new weekly HH, i.e., a break above €3.88, could bring about a rally.

[Lexus]

YIT. In the long term, an IHS-like pattern. In the short term, it has just broken out of a bull flag with high volume. This looks good even though it’s a very unsexy stock.

Under favorable conditions, a (even relatively quick) pricing between 4-5 € seems possible.

[Lexus]

S&P 500. A simple guideline for this market: Positive and Negative. The trendline has repeatedly provided a turn upwards and, on the other hand, downwards. Several moving averages also coincide with it.

It seems to me that, at least temporarily, the market is starting to run out of steam. On a daily level, the last upward wave is underway before a correction.

[jaska7]

https://www.instagram.com/jaskatreidaa/?hl=en I’ll be posting my own graphs there, without comments, so everyone can make their own interpretations

[Lexus]

Tecnotree. Fundamentals and the technical picture aligned again - meaning a rally following the breach of €3.88 and/or a new contract announcement. At the same time, a weekly trend change to bullish was made.

Next resistance level €4.50-4.63.

[Warren_Fyffet]

A slightly longer-term technical analysis. T Rowe Price is, for the first time in a long time, on monthly candles below the 200 moving average. This last happened at the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009.

The company is below the 200 moving average on all other timeframes and in a downtrend. The situation might interest bottom fishers. Looking at a horizon of about 40 years, a bounce has been taken from that 200

[MoneyWalker]

Tecnotree with 1W candles. Apologies for the messy picture. It’s my own setup.
16.12.2024 buy signal RSI divergence
20.1.2025 buy signal PPO oscillator and HH

3.50 is the peak of the volume profile and acted as a support level going forward.

The next resistance level at 4.85 is weak - low volume (see volume profile)
A breakthrough of the upper edge of the downtrend with increasing volume would be a strong buy signal.
5.81 strong resistance level - high volume.

The bot’s technical view is buy.

@First_Timer

Why didn’t the RSI divergence give a buy signal much earlier, e.g., starting from May 24?

RSI divergence means that the RSI makes a higher low when the price makes a lower low. The price did not make lows until 16.12.2024. I am looking at this with 1W candles because the investment horizon is years or at least months. Daily signals are too noisy.

@First_Timer

Yes, but I’m asking now, why didn’t you think a buy signal came already in March 24? That’s when the weekly RSI divergence occurred for the first time. Or at the latest in May when the situation was even clearer?

Good point. But I don’t see real lows in the RSI in March or May 2024. The RSI was in an uptrend then. When I look for RSI divergence, the RSI curve must make a clear wave movement up and down. In March and May, the RSI was still making an upward wave. In March, the stock price, moreover, made only a very marginal low. An unclear divergence is not a signal for me.

[First_Timer]

@MoneyWalker

16.12.2024 buy signal RSI divergence

Why didn’t the RSI divergence give a buy signal much earlier, e.g., starting from May '24?

[First_Timer]

Yeah, but I’m asking now, why didn’t you already in March 24 think that a buy signal came? That’s when the weekly RSI divergence materialized for the first time. Or at the latest in May when the situation was even clearer?

Or have you only today looked back to see what buy-supporting signals you can find from the past at this stage?

[Clark_kent]

Duolingo daily gap fill, ma100 tuki?

[First_Timer]

@MoneyWalker

RSI divergence means that the RSI makes a higher low when the price makes a lower low. The price did not make lows until 16.12.2024. I examine this with 1W candles because the investment horizon is years or at least months. Daily level signals are too noisy.

@MoneyWalker

Good point. But I don’t see real lows in the RSI in March or May 2024. The RSI was in an uptrend then. When I look for RSI divergence, the RSI curve must make a clear wave movement up and down. In March and May, the RSI was still making an upward wave. In March, the stock price, moreover, made only a very marginal low. Unclear divergence is not a signal for me.

I don’t want to argue, but I still need to try to understand. First you tell what RSI divergence means, but then you say you’re applying your own version of it? It’s not part of its characteristics that the RSI should be in a “downward wave”… And even with that criterion, you should have gotten a buy signal already from September '24 onwards, the RSI is already going downwards (check) and the price is lower than previous lows (check)…
In my opinion, it’s a bit unnecessary to present your own setup with which you “found” the lows afterwards if you’re not willing to admit that the first buy signal might have slipped through the sieve; it can make many believe that TA is too easy. Often it happens that those signals come, a trade is taken but we hit the stop-loss because the signal came too early. There’s nothing wrong with that.

[MoneyWalker]

Go ahead and argue. I said at the very beginning of my original post that it’s my own setup. Regarding the September 2024 signal, I agree with you. I no longer consider it, as it was invalidated. It was a buy signal, and when I look at my purchases, I also bought in September and November. And several times in December. I don’t make my stock selections based on TA. I have a list of stocks I’m willing to buy when a suitable TA signal appears. I didn’t see one in March and May 2024. And that’s good. The September purchase wasn’t perfect, but the position is now quite solidly in profit. The same goes for the December purchases.

In December 2024, I also wrote a lengthy fundamental analysis for my purchases on the forum. Tecnotree – Afrikan tähden paluu? - #7322 käyttäjältä MoneyWalker - Osakkeet - Inderes forum

Divergence is a lagging indicator. When candles are on a weekly level, the signal can be seen at the earliest a week later and usually requires several weeks. The signal only becomes visible when a new bottom for both curves is clearly visible.

My intention was to highlight several buy signals and speculate on potential resistance levels. As I said, that’s my setup, and the picture evolves. I only have one chart, and it shows the necessary history. I will remove old signals from the chart at some point to avoid clutter.

And so, I don’t trade, nor do I set stops.

[First_Timer]

Thank you very much for your clarifications @MoneyWalker !! This further clarified for me what has been happening in the background over the longer term It’s been nice to read your writings in both the TA and Tecnotree threads.

[Clark_kent]

Interesting downtrend on Duolingo. MA100 was weak, the next gap and MA200 very close. The Weekly MA 50, which previously acted as support, is approaching $350, which hits the middle of the gap! A quality platform stock, where I’m looking for a buying opportunity…

[Thiebault]

Today, I opened the first short position at 6413.00 for this upward cycle as a hedge, as a target that felt utopian months ago was reached. With the market being this strong, it’s pointless to commit too heavily and bet too strongly against the trend. I expected this target to be hit only next week, so it’s very possible that the strength will continue even further with earnings season underway.

Nevertheless, I thought it was a good spot to hedge my long positions at least short-term, and the entry had a very good risk-reward ratio, with a very easy stop to set. My lower pivot area is marked around 6318-6323, and there are several target areas in between. VIX also made its first small bounce (now 15.18, bottom 14.95). If sellers don’t achieve anything and disappear again, there’s no point in holding onto shorts.

EDIT: Around the same time I published my message, there was a 10-year TIPS (inflation-protected bonds) auction, which was strong and, in my opinion, provided temporary support to the stock market as well. I had forgotten to mark that on my calendar. In any case, typical for this market, sellers completely disappeared temporarily. Eventually, we stopped around ES 6415, and I had estimated a possible spike to ES 6424 if buyers still had enough enthusiasm.

And EDIT2:
Someone recently bought SPY $640 calls expiring on 8.8.25 for $20.8 million. These somewhat curb heavier shorting, because typically such large leveraged option bets are institutional purchases and tend to hit at least close, especially when we are at ATH (All-Time High) levels. However, one never knows when these will be closed and what kind of strategy they are linked to. Relative to the ES future, SPY 640.00 would be approximately ES 6456, and the distance from this level to there is about +0.70%. It’s at least good to be aware of these larger option bets.

EDIT3: update 25.7.25

The previous hedging short hit its stop during the day. A couple of clear hints indicated the continuation of the trend: the ES 6402.00 premarket test and failure to break through, and especially the continued option flow into SPY calls throughout the day. More calls were just opened, now with a SPY 643 strike (SPY currently around 637). The sizes are relatively significant for individual bets. Based on that, some larger player’s target by early August (next week) is approximately ES 6486.00 (SPY 643). Before the flow turns negative again, it’s quite pointless for me to short the market. I would guess I’ll be looking for possible hedges no earlier than late next week (Wed-Fri).