Something like this today in addition to the interim report:
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I didn’t make it to the earnings call… Any highlights?
Did they elaborate on this new deal at all?
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Webcast recording https://ir-cdn.inderes.com/assets/tecnotree/calendar-event-attachments/b2b2b1c8-9ab2-4d3a-800a-366b02935488/q1-2025-earnings-call-1.mp4
Nobody asked about the deal.
The EUR 2.5 million write-down is not related to Iran, but to receivables from several other countries.
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Helios’s takeover of CAB Payments does not seem to be crossing the finish line in its entirety. StoneX has made a significantly higher offer, but Helios controls 52% of the shares, which allows it to easily block any competing bid. Perhaps Helios’s intent is only to secure a majority stake in both takeovers (Tecnotree and CAB), and the goal is to obtain a majority through which they can drive a new strategy forward.
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Indeed. It can easily happen, just as it did with Musti, that the tender offer is completed and then the share price starts heading downhill.
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Well, it’s possible, as some retail investors are hoping for an increased offer.
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I suspect this myself as well; they might even reach that 66.7%, which would give them a fairly free hand to run things. The share price is unlikely to tank immediately after the offer, at least not by much, but over time, the risk of a more significant decline certainly grows. Let’s hope for an increase in the offer, though; that should still be possible, even though a 10% hike would hardly change much, meaning it would still fall short of 90%—at least unless all the largest owners can be brought on board to support the offer. It will be interesting to see how the situation develops.
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Unfortunately, this is the largest holding in my portfolio.
I wouldn’t be very happy with a small increase in the offer, as my average
purchase price is around €7/share.
I have decided that I won’t sell below that unless I have to.
If I have to rub the crystal ball, I also believe in a raised offer, but
it will likely be around the +10% range, which I don’t think will make
much of a difference.
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In my opinion, there is another explanation for Tecnotree’s share price rising above €5.70 than just the expectation of a higher bid.
If we add up Fitzroy + Ravichander at approximately 40.4%, Luminos at about 6.3%, Helios’s assumed sub-5% stake, and Hammarén’s 8.14%, we are already at around 60%. As a board member, Hammarén has advocated for the offer, so it would be quite strange if he did not accept it himself.
In this case, reaching the 2/3 threshold would not require Kakkonen or Nieminen at all. Shareholders with fewer than 10,000 shares hold about 22% of the stock, and it would only take about a third of them to join for the 67% mark to be exceeded.
From the market’s perspective, this might even be the best scenario: the 90% threshold is not met, Tecnotree remains listed, but the company has a strong institutional controlling owner. Helios would hardly turn a blind eye for years to weak cash flow repatriation, heavy remuneration, or the leakage of shareholder value elsewhere. The new major owner would presumably also start normalizing management compensation and incentives reasonably quickly. That alone could significantly improve minority shareholder confidence.
Helios’s logic as a private equity investor is to grow value and realize it later at a higher price. Therefore, €5.70 may no longer be seen by the market as a “certain redemption price”; instead, the share may be pricing in an alternative where Tecnotree remains listed, but corporate governance improves substantially.
This is not a certain outcome, of course. But to me, it is a very credible reason why someone is paying more than the offer price for the share right now.
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Mikko Laakkonen has become a new owner in Tecnotree with a 0.68% stake. Private equity investor/major investor.
Nieminen’s accumulation pace is slowing down.
Selling has occurred behind the SEB nominee registration, but it still holds 6.01%.
Edit: Laakkonen’s purchases of 155,952 shares represent 78% of all trades in April and appear to have started on April 17th. It’s quite clear who is driving the share price up now.
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Trading volumes are low, but the price already seems to be 6.15.
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The paperwork should now be in order. The General Meeting is being held remotely on May 29th. One could assume that more information regarding the status of the takeover bid will be available within the next couple of weeks.
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As I understand it, the offeror has not yet received regulatory approvals
I can’t say exactly which approvals are still pending, but the board postponed the annual general meeting to May 29th due to the tender offer, and now the notice of the meeting has been released. Because of that, I assumed everything should be ready and some information should drop before the meeting.
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