I’ll summarize some points from the Emergers analysis below.
Tallink’s Q3 sales and earnings exceeded expectations, but the weakened economic situation is affecting and has affected performance.
In 2025, the company is expected to pick up, and according to forecasts, net profit will grow by 53 percent next year, to 38 million euros. Based on free cash flow, the dividend estimate is €0.05/share, which would correspond to a dividend yield of 8.3 percent.
AS Tallink Grupp: Management Transactions
today at 09.00 ∙ Global Newswire
Person subject to the notification requirement
Name: Negene, Paao
Position: Chairman of the Supervisory Board of AS Tallink Grupp
Issuer: AS Tallink Grupp
LEI: 529900QRMWAKKR3L9W75
Nature of the notification: Initial notification
Transaction date: 08.11.2024
Trading venue: Nasdaq OMX Tallinn
Instrument type: Share
ISIN: EE3100004466
Nature of the transaction: Acquisition
Detailed transaction information:
(1): Volume: 13,932; Unit price: 0.598 euros
As Chairman of Tallink’s Supervisory Board, I have increased my ownership of Tallink shares. Now it must be remembered that November is the time for realizing losses, i.e., the best time to buy shares from those who are disappointed. The reason for the share price drop was an “ownership arrangement” where Infotar bought out almost all international funds from Tallink due to the earnings crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The price was quite low, and this is still reflected in the current year’s share price. Now Tallink’s performance is on a healthy foundation and a great dividend is coming again. I won’t say for “certain” that the price couldn’t return to pre-pandemic levels of around one euro. For me, this €0.6 level with a 10% dividend is quite sufficient. Well, I won’t complain if the price corrects to the pre-pandemic level of €1.
Dividends will continue to be quite abundant in the coming years, if you notice this news from the summer:
July 30, 13:37 ∙ Arvopaperi
The Estonian shipping company Tallink, which is also dual-listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange, reports on its CEO’s share purchases.
Tallink’s CEO Paavo Nõgene bought 450,000 Tallink shares on Friday and an additional 70,000 shares yesterday, Monday. In total, Nõgene bought 520,000 shares for 305,550 euros. The average price per share was slightly under 0.59 euros.
The shares were purchased for the company PN Management OÜ, in which Nõgene is involved.
It is now possible to buy at the same price and follow the future dividend stream.
31 loka 09.00 ∙
Free Cash Flow support Dividends
We estimate dividend policy EUR 0.05/shr each year 2024-26, which is supported by the estimated Free Cash Flow of EUR 0.17-0.19/shr. The non-cash item depreciation (EUR ∼97m/yr.) makes it is easy to underestimate the dividend payment capability when looking at the EPS (estimated at EUR 0.05-0.06/shr.). At the webinar, management said there was a “high possibility” to pay EUR 0.05/shr dividend, which implies 8.3% yield.
Based on this, it was quite clear why the CEO invested 300,000 euros in Tallink. A very nice addition to their income is definitely coming. This truly offers a good buffet for all Tallink shareholders.
Tallink’s management is eager to continue purchases.
Name: Nõgene, Paavo
Position: Chairman of the Management Board of AS Tallink Grupp
AS Tallink Grupp: Managers’ Transactions | Kauppalehti
A rather nice end to the year - guaranteed income for 6 months + options on top
Listed on the Tallinn and Helsinki stock exchanges, Tallink Grupp announced that the company’s subsidiary Tallink Silja Oy has signed a new agreement with Slaapschepen Public BV, a company designated by the Dutch Centraal Orgaan Opvang Asielzoekers (COA).
The agreement concerns the chartering of the company’s vessel Silja Europa to the Netherlands for a period of six months starting on January 1, 2025. The agreement can be extended further after this.
The company’s former Helsinki-Tallinn route cruise ship Silja Europa has been chartered to the Netherlands since August 2022, where it has provided temporary accommodation for asylum seekers. The vessel has been chartered in recent years, and according to the new agreement, the chartering will take place with Tallink Grupp’s technical crew.
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If only Romantika and that old Atlantic Vision that came from Canada could find work.
Here is SalkunRakentaja’s article about Tallink, its results, and its dividend. 
”Considering the general economic climate in 2024, additional EU requirements and taxes affecting the shipping industry, and low consumer confidence in all our key markets, the year was ultimately satisfactory,” commented Tallink Grupp’s CEO Paavo Nõgene.
Tallink will probably soon have one more ship idle in port, if the rumors are true. The charter of the old Star is likely ending, and it would return to the Baltic Sea. It might go to the Paldiski-Kapellskär route, but from there, some other ship would be laid up. (Regal Star or Sailor)
Share trading in Tallink shares in Helsinki has been very low. The company has 38,800 owners. However, most of them trade south of the Gulf of Finland. Nevertheless, one must wonder about the low trading volume in Helsinki, considering the company’s market value is almost 500 million. And owners, for example, in Nordnet right now, 3645. Tallink’s earnings report confirmed that Tallink will remain a dividend payer. It is probably clear that very large individual owners want dividends. Key figures: Enn Pant through his company and personal holdings, and CEO Paavo Nõgene is also a major owner. This is an excellent dividend company until a hole is drilled between Finland and Estonia = that doesn’t seem likely to happen anytime soon.
What do people here think about Infortar’s intentions. The compensation obligation ends at the beginning of May. Do you think they might be willing to make a tender offer for the remaining shares. This would concern about 234 million shares, meaning at the current price, they would need to secure about 154 MEUR in financing.
Below is Emergers’ analysis, explaining how Q4 results fell short of expectations, but the dividend was higher than anticipated. 
The analyst expects an economic recovery and a stable dividend policy supported by strong cash flow. Forecasts are only slightly adjusted, and reportedly, sales or leasing activities could improve dividend prospects in the future.
The percentage change in passenger numbers for February and January was a clear turn for the better. January was still a -9.1% decrease compared to the previous year, and February -4.5%, so a clear turnaround is being made as purchasing power recovers. It’s important to remember that interest rate adjustments are constantly improving the situation for mortgage holders during the spring. The passenger volume situation will likely turn positive around May, when interest rate revisions bring the greatest benefits to citizens. A nice dividend of over 9% helps immensely in waiting for the almost certain turnaround.
Star I has apparently been sold. The Superfast (and whatever number follows) that was laid up will take its place on the Paldiski-Kapellskär route. Wasn’t the buyer, Irish Ferries (or whatever its official name is in the registries), the same entity to which the ship was already leased with a purchase option? Perhaps the price was originally too high, and now Tallink has sold it cheaper…?
Expected turnaround finally occurred. Passenger numbers on the rise:
AS Tallink Grupp Statistics for April 2025 | Kauppalehti
The Sailor vessel, which had been laid up for a while, has also been sold. However, it won’t go far as it’s going to Eckerö and apparently will start operating the Naantali-Långnäs route. (As they apparently needed a ship that could take more passengers there, and on the other hand, there aren’t necessarily many vessels of the right ice class and suitable size for that route on the market, so I wonder if Tallink got a suitable amount of money knowing this)
What are people’s expectations for Tallink Group? Will they pay a dividend this year?
At least the year got off to a strong start with 13% growth in passenger numbers
I attended Tallink’s Annual General Meeting last spring and spoke with the CEO. He assured me that a dividend will be paid next year as well (meaning twice in 2026).