Here are Aapeli’s preliminary comments as Sotkamo Silver releases its results on Wednesday, April 29:
We expect the company’s production volumes to have grown from the previous quarter, but to have remained at a modest level in the early part of the year. Despite this, we predict the company will report very strong figures, driven primarily by the very strong development in silver prices. Our greatest interest in the report lies in the company’s comments regarding production development.
Here is a company report from Aapeli following Sotkamo Silver’s Q1 results
Sotkamo Silver’s Q1 production remained at a low level as expected, but a very strong metals market boosted the company’s results to record levels. Consequently, the company’s cash position had strengthened significantly. The company made no changes to its guidance for the current year and expects production volumes to increase during the remainder of the year. Reflecting on the report, which was fairly well in line with our expectations, we made no changes to our production forecasts. Instead, the forecasts were supported particularly by increased long-term silver price projections. With a decreased risk profile and forecast upgrades, our sum-of-the-parts valuation was on the rise, and we see the stock as being fairly neutrally priced as the strong market situation continues. Accordingly, we are raising our target price to SEK 3.7 (prev. SEK 3.1) and our recommendation to Reduce (prev. Sell).
How should one approach the company as an investment when the returns generated from the asset (the mine) will eventually come to an end? Does anyone here have examples of similar situations? Of course, it is always possible that the life of the mine can be extended.
At this stage of its life cycle, is the company still an attractive M&A target, or will it simply distribute all profits (minus mandatory investments) to shareholders, after which the holdings are canceled?
Using simple common sense, the company aims to continue its operations, which means expanding the current mine or, if the deposits run out, opening a new mine elsewhere. Surely mining at the current site won’t end for decades?
Inderes’ latest report:
“In our view, what has been positive for the company, in addition to the continuation of the very strong market situation, is the success of the previously reported exploration programs. Based on the company’s indications, these extend the life of the Silver Mine as targeted until at least 2035. It is also worth noting that extending the life beyond this period is possible through new exploration programs.”
Here are Aapeli’s comments on the positive profit warning
The company issued a positive profit warning on Thursday and raised its 2026 earnings guidance, driven by the price of silver. The guidance hike did not come as a surprise to us in the current strong metal market, and our earnings forecast for the current year was already clearly above even the updated guidance. Thus, the profit warning has no immediate impact on our forecasts or our view of the company.
Here are Aapeli’s comments regarding the silver market.
Based on the annual World Silver Survey published in the spring by the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, total global silver demand decreased slightly in 2025 compared to 2024. However, the market remained in a slight deficit, and the situation is projected to continue similarly throughout the current year. Developments in the silver market have a significant impact on Sotkamo Silver, one of the companies under our coverage, as we estimate that roughly 60–70% of the company’s revenue during the production phase of the Silver Mine (depending on metal price ratios) consists of silver. Our previous comment on the silver market can be read here.