At current prices, it’s not even worth trying to chase higher-grade ore; instead, extraction should be maximized on the assumption that the ore currently being mined is the same grade as before.
If we start digging a new tunnel, we’ll quickly be back in a situation where the bedrock is unstable and interruptions occur.
Indeed. As long as production can be brought to a steady level with the “new-old” contractor, this would be the most important goal. 1.4 million ounces per year is more than enough at this silver price.
Here are Petri’s comments on Sotkamo’s new targets.
The targets set through the end of 2028 largely reflect the pursuit of production ramp-up in line with our forecasts and, through this, also a clear improvement in profitability and a strengthening of the financial position. Consequently, according to our preliminary assessment, the updated targets do not lead to material changes in forecasts, but we will review the need for forecast changes in the near future.
I’d be interested to know why the skyrocketing silver price isn’t addressed here at all? One would think that the target price for the stock would react to it somehow. Or does the analyst believe that the silver price will quickly collapse back to previous levels? What silver price was used as the basis for this stock valuation?
The company’s history of disappointments and silver’s reputation for volatility are weighing heavily on the analyst and other investors. The last two times silver spiked, it came back down sharply. It could do the same again, but not necessarily from these levels; rather, a new price level is currently being established.
The company’s history has been dismal due to production problems, but even if they don’t mine a single ounce more than this year, the results will be excellent. Even Inderes is forecasting a +50% increase in revenue for next year, yet they still don’t see a need to change their guidance. When next year’s quarters are compared against this year’s weak performance, people will be surprised again by the significant growth. Perhaps the recommendation will be adjusted then, but by that point, the share price will have already taken off.
If production can be ramped up with Tapojärvi, the surprise will be even greater. Past failures cast a long shadow, and the market’s trust must be earned.
Edit: There it goes, surging +11% right at the market open!
Sotkamo Silver’s New Reported Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve Estimates
Mineral Resources (“MRE”) total 12.664 million tonnes (including resources in the Measured, Indicated, and Inferred categories) with average grades of 51 g/t silver, 0.26 g/t gold, 0.18% lead, and 0.43% zinc, or 86 g/t expressed as silver equivalent.
A more detailed breakdown of the mineral resource into different categories is in Appendix 1, and a schematic drawing of the resource locations is in Appendix 3.
The Mineral Resource Estimate was prepared by Sotkamo Silver Oy in accordance with the JORC 2012 Code.
The Mineral Resource Estimate includes mineralization under mining/production down to a depth of approximately 900 meters, as well as new mineralization located to the west of the production area, which the company plans to develop into a production/mining area in the coming years.
Ore Reserves (“ORE”) total 1.598 million tonnes (including reserves in the Proven and Probable categories) with average grades of 85 g/t silver, 0.22 g/t gold, 0.23% lead, and 0.52% zinc, or 119 g/t expressed as silver equivalent.
A more detailed breakdown of the ore reserves into different categories is in Appendix 2.
Ore reserves represent that part of the Mineral Resource where the amount of information is sufficient for mine planning and which is estimated to be exploitable.
The Ore Reserve Estimate was prepared by Sotkamo Silver Oy in accordance with the JORC 2012 Code.
The Ore Reserve Estimate includes the mineralization in production down to a depth of approximately 600 meters.
Were these drilling results a bit weaker than previous indications? Silver price is unfortunately down 9% today; luckily, the Helsinki stock exchange is closed
There are certainly higher-grade ore bodies included as well, even though the average grade is low. At these metal prices, the grade doesn’t matter as much, as it is profitable to mine even at lower grades.
According to Nordnet, silver is down about 5%. Unless the price drops further, Sotkamo will continue to rise when the market opens again. The next upward catalyst could be when Inderes updates the silver price and the reserve update in their target price.
Average silver grade 2025, Q1-3 = 74 g/t. Last year 89 g/t. There has been significant variation in silver grades between different quarters over the years. One major factor this year has also been that not enough material has been brought to the surface from the mine for processing. As I understand it, the concentrator could have processed more. Hopefully, the new subcontractor will achieve the necessary capacity at the mine, ensuring enough ore—even if of slightly lower grade—reaches the concentrator > thereby producing silver in accordance with the new short-term targets.
So, there’s the reserve update. “The following prices (USD) were used in the AgEq calculation: silver 39.65/oz, gold US 3,511/oz, lead 2,002/t and zinc US 2,726/t.” I would consider those parameters quite conservative (especially silver) considering current metal prices. In my view, it is also natural that the average metal grades of the mineralization decrease when the metal prices used in profitability calculations increase. Lower-grade ore bodies also become profitably exploitable.
Here are Petri’s comments on Sotkamo Silver’s updated mineral resource and ore reserve estimates.
Sotkamo Silver’s updated mineral resource and ore reserve estimates show significant growth in the company’s mineral resources. The update supports the company’s strategic goal of extending the life of the Silver Mine until 2035 and, in our view, reduces the risk related to the mine’s life cycle. We will update our forecasts and view on Sotkamo Silver in the near future.
Jussi Halme has made a new video about Sotkamo Silver.
The year 2025 went down in history as the year when silver finally stepped out of gold’s shadow. A price spike to nearly $80, sharp volatility, and physical scarcity have made silver one of the most talked-about asset classes in the market. But why is the market behaving this way, and what should an investor understand about silver’s dual role as a safe haven and an industrial metal?
In this video, we break down the current state of the silver market and dive deep into structural factors: the growth of solar energy, geopolitical tensions, and the mechanics of the COMEX market.
I also talk openly about my own “Christmas present”: I bought 2,000 shares of Sotkamo Silver. Why invest in a company that is in debt and struggling with operational challenges? Is it a calculated speculation or just mere hope?
I personally loaded up on SOS a bit over a month ago when I saw the rise in silver prices and knew that its effects would only show up in mining companies’ results with a slight delay. Inderes’ recommendation is still “reduce”. In just over a month, my investment has returned about 110 percent. Yet another example of how you have to do your own homework and then just trust yourself.
Inderes’s analyses and comments are informative and useful, but perhaps they should completely stop giving target prices for companies whose value is heavily influenced by a volatile external factor, such as the price of silver. Or then they should update their view much more frequently.
Now, Inderes’s target price is 1 Swedish krona, while the share price is already hovering around 2.85 krona. Everyone knows that Inderes will raise its view. Why haven’t they raised it already?
What if that first sentence answers the second, and they just want better analysis and insights in addition to target price tweaking? You already referred to that at the start of your message. If updating the analysis too slowly lowers the analyst consensus, then it only provides better buying opportunities for the more informed.
If the price of silver can be tracked anyway, doesn’t tweaking the analysis based on it expose one to the risk of confirmation bias, when the company is ultimately distinguished from others by its qualitative performance around silver?
However, analysts also frequently remind us not to just stare at those damn target prices.
JP Morgan owns approximately 750 million ounces of physical silver, which would make it the single largest owner in the market and give it the ability to heavily influence the price of silver.